BANGLADESH RESPONSE: QDDR GLOBAL CONTEXT SECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 001081 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR S/P - TANDREWS, SCA/INSB DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID ECON PREL SOCI BG SUBJECT: BANGLADESH RESPONSE: QDDR GLOBAL CONTEXT SECTION REF: STATE 120172 ¶1. (SBU) Mission Dhaka welcomes the opportunity to contribute to the QDDR process. Bangladesh is home to 150 million people crowded into an area the size of Wisconsin. This desperately poor nation faces immense challenges, including with regard to food security and climate change. Bangladesh is also a moderate, Muslim-majority nation that is proud of its vibrant democracy and secular tradition. Located at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, it is critical the United States support Bangladesh's quest to prosper economically and politically. ¶2. (SBU) Answers to reftel questions follow: -- To what degree will/can technology empower individuals, or civil society in the host country, to exercise a more active role in public life? Are host country officials and citizens attuned to (or indifferent) to this issue? Is the host government supportive of or hostile to expansion of access to social networks or other similar tools? What non-state actors will be playing critical roles over the next two decades? Bangladesh boasts a vibrant civil society, with a strong tradition of non-governmental organizations that have emerged to play a major role as service providers within the country and outside its borders. The Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC) is one of the world's largest NGOs, while Bangladesh's Grameen Bank is a pioneer in the field of microcredit. Despite the grinding poverty that exists within Bangladesh, the country has witnessed an explosion in the availability of mobile telephones, with an estimated 35 million current subscribers. A key component of the ruling Awami League's election manifesto prior to the December 2008 polls was the creation of a "digital Bangladesh" as a means towards realizing the party's "Vision 2021." During the election campaign, the Awami League pioneered the use of video conferencing and other tools on its way to a landslide victory. The key to achieving the goal of a "digital Bangladesh" will be creating an enabling environment that allows Bangladesh's dynamic private sector to invest in the spread of information technology. This has been the key to the success of Bangladesh's readymade garment industry and the success of social entrepreneurship like the leading mobile phone provider, Grameenphone. Vibrant civil society organizations and a grown private sector, buttressed by a free media, are critical to the continued resiliency of Bangladeshi society to the appeal of extremism. -- What attitude do critical publics in the host country display toward the so-called rising powers - India, China, and Brazil, for example - and how do they perceive other important international players, including key international organizations? Bangladesh maintains a complicated relationship with its larger neighbor, India, and important sections of public opinion remain suspicious of New Delhi's intentions towards smaller countries within the region. The Awami League government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina assumed office in January 2009 with a strong desire to improve relations with India and resolve longstanding bilateral issues. The Prime Minister will visit New Delhi in late December and hopes to reach a comprehensive settlement on many of these issues. At the same time, the government's freedom of action is constrained by fears of a public backlash led by the political opposition and elements within the security services who continue to see India as a potential threat. Over the long term, the challenges of climate change, water scarcity, and illegal migration will continue to put a strain on Bangladesh's relationship with India. Bangladeshi elites are very interested in the status of Indo-U.S. relations and have sought assurances from us that our strategic partnership will not come at Bangladesh's expense. We regularly face the criticism that the U.S. has "sub-contracted" our policy in the region to India. We have sought to reassure our interlocutors that the U.S. does not see its relationship with Bangladesh through New Delhi's prism. Within the region, Bangladesh has traditionally been a strong supporter of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Former Bangladeshi President Ziaur Rahman was one of the leading forces behind the creation of SAARC. Recognizing that SAARC's effectiveness has been hampered by tensions between India and Pakistan, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has proposed alternative mechanisms for regional and sub regional cooperation. For example, Hasina proposed a "South Asian Task Force" to counter terrorism, which was intended to serve as a more flexible forum for cooperation between Bangladesh and its neighbors. Envisioned as a "coalition of the willing," the South Asia Task Force would also provide a mechanism for participation by countries outside the region (e.g. the United States). As relations with India have been marked by suspicion over the DHAKA 00001081 002 OF 003 decades, many in Bangladesh have seen improved ties with China as a counter to Indian hegemony. In many ways, Bangladesh has emulated Pakistan's efforts to cultivate relations with China as a balance to India. China has been an important military equipment supplier and the Chinese have been active in supporting major infrastructure projects. There are fears that improved relations with India will lead to a cooling of ties with China. The ruling Awami League recently sent a high-level party delegation to Beijing to attend the Chinese Communist Party Congress in an effort to allay these fears. Some in Bangladesh also worry that China's interest in hydrocarbon resources will eventually lead Beijing to side with Rangoon in its maritime boundary dispute with Dhaka. For its part, China's interests in Bangladesh often mirror our own, with a focus on the investment climate and political stability. Brazil recently opened an Embassy in Dhaka, but it remains to be seen how active Brasilia's diplomatic mission will be. Bangladesh's primary foreign policy interests relate to those countries that provide development assistance, provide markets for Bangladesh's exports, or provide jobs to Bangladeshi workers. While Bangladesh has sought to play a leadership role among the Least Developed Countries in the WTO and other international fora, it has not been very active in bilateral diplomacy with others in the developing world outside groupings such as the Commonwealth and OIC's formal meetings. Bangladesh recognizes the importance of international development organizations and international financial institutions. The World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank, World Food Organization, United Nations Development Program, Food and Agriculture Organization, and United Nations Children's Fund all have active programs in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is also the world's second leading contributor to United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, sending between 8,000 and 10,000 troops and police to UNPKO missions each year. This is an important source of national pride and revenue for the Bangladesh Military. At times, such as prior to the decision to impose a State of Emergency in January 2007, the role of the international community in "interfering" in local politics becomes controversial. Small leftist-leaning groups also regularly criticize the activities of multinational companies, aid organizations, and foreign militaries, accusing them of violating Bangladesh's sovereignty. At the same time, polls universally demonstrate strong popular support for the role of the international community in helping to promote Bangladesh's development. -- What does the host country identify as the most important issues (both internal and external) critical to its own development and to international development writ large? Bangladesh's primary focus is on maintaining (or expanding) access to markets for its export oriented industries, which are a major source of foreign exchange and employment. The ready made garment industry, for example, employs 3 million workers and generates billions in export earnings. Similarly, Bangladesh depends upon remittances from the millions of Bangladeshi citizens working outside the country. Official remittance flows now exceed $10 billion/year. Bangladesh's development partners continue to provide much needed support for programs to ensure food security, promote public health, advance education, and prepare for (and respond to) natural disasters. At the same time, Bangladesh is no longer the aid-dependent "basket case" described by foreign observers in the 1970s. Bangladesh's development is often constrained by the lack of capacity, inefficiency, and corruption within the public sector. This has contributed to the rise of a vibrant non-governmental sector which plays a critical role in advancing development. For Bangladesh, the most pressing issue is ensuring food security for the country's growing population. Already one of the world's most densely populated countries, Bangladesh's population is expected to nearly double within this century. At the same time, the country loses 1% of arable land each year to environmental degradation and urbanization. Feeding its people and avoiding price shocks is a critical concern for any government. -- What is the host country position on climate change issues, or on any resource conflict questions? What steps is the host country government taking to deal with potential future demographic challenges? As one of the countries most vulnerable to global climate change and sea level rise, Bangladesh has become increasingly active and vocal in the run up to the Copenhagen Summit. It is estimate that a one meter sea level rise would inundate up to one-third of Bangladesh's land area and create over 30 million climate refugees. Bangladesh's water resources are also under strain. Bangladesh also fears that DHAKA 00001081 003 OF 003 global climate change will lead to more frequent and more severe cyclonic storms and flooding, which could have a devastating effect on the country. While impressive strides have been made in the past in controlling population growth, more needs to be done by both the government and development partners. Bangladeshis show remarkable resiliency, but demography and environmental challenges threaten to overwhelm the country in the coming century. This would have serious effects not just in Bangladesh, but in the region. -- To what extent does "backsliding" pose a threat to local democratic movement (or to what degree does the country perceive this as a threat elsewhere)? Bangladesh's citizens went to the polls in record numbers in December 2008 and voted overwhelmingly to return the secular Awami League to power in elections widely considered the most free and fair in the country's history. Since democracy was restored in 1991, there have now been four largely successful national elections. At the same time, the two-year caretaker government period from 2007 - 2009 highlighted the continuing challenges to institutionalizing democracy and improving governance. Bangladesh's politics remains highly polarized and characterized by winner-take-all, patron-client relationships. Institutions are weak and power is unduly concentrated in the Prime Minister's hands. Parliament has been plagued by opposition boycotts, local government has been ineffective and starved of resources, and corruption remains endemic. Constitutional bodies that are supposed to provide checks and balances have been politicized. There is an uneasy relationship between the military and civilian governments. The judiciary is dysfunctional and the police are widely seen as corrupt and ineffective. On the positive side, civil society is vibrant and the media is relatively free. The United States and other development partners are committed to helping Bangladesh improve governance as a foundation for sustainable economic growth. --Post-Cairo Follow-Up and Global Engagement Even as it confronts the many challenges facing the country as it heads into the new century, Bangladesh provides opportunities for the United States. Our interlocutors in the Government and civil society have remarked upon the coincidence of interests with the Obama Administration's priorities, particularly on global issues such as food security, women's empowerment, peacekeeping reform, global health, and climate change. There are opportunities for us to work with a moderate Muslim majority democracy founded upon the principles of secularism. A more democratic and prosperous Bangladesh that resists extremism and that plays a constructive role in international forums would be a powerful potential ally for the United States. While often relegated to the status of a "small country" Bangladesh's population of 150 million puts it into the top tier of most populous countries. At the same time that this potential exists, there is also a risk that a failed state at the crossroads of South Asia would provide challenges for the U.S. and our allies in the region. DEAN