SAUDI ARABIA IS KEY G-77 COUNTRY IN CLIMATE CHANGE TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAHRAN 000201 SIPDIS PLEASE PASS TO NEA/ARP JOSHUA HARRIS, EEB/ESC/IEC DANIELLE MONOSSON AND MICHAEL SULLIVAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/5/2019 TAGS: ECON ENRG KGCC SENV SA SUBJECT: SAUDI ARABIA IS KEY G-77 COUNTRY IN CLIMATE CHANGE TALKS REF: SECSTATE 70837 CLASSIFIED BY: Joseph Kenny, Consul General, EXEC, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) SUMMARY: -------------- ¶1. (C) In an August 2 meeting, Abdullah Khalid Talwah (protect), a member of the official Saudi delegation to UN climate change negotiations, told EconOff that five countries hold sway over the G-77 and are thus key to a consensus on climate change: China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. He noted that without a U.S. climate change bill with a specific emissions target, a final agreement by December would be highly unlikely. Talwah said Saudi Arabia would be open to meeting with a sub-group of countries identified by the U.S. He said that Saudi Arabia's primary interest is for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to be included under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from Kyoto. END SUMMARY. THE SAUDIS AND THE G-77: -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 2, EconOff met with Abdullah Khalid Talwah (protect),an advisor to the Minister of Petroleum and Minerals (MinPet) Ali al-Naimi, and a member of the official Saudi delegation to UN climate change negotiations. Talwah has been seconded to MinPet from Saudi Aramco for the past four years as an advisor to al-Naimi on climate change and other environmental issues. He worked with Aramco for 11 years prior to his current assignment with the oil ministry. Al-Naimi is the nominal head of the Saudi delegation for climate change talks, but reportedly he empowers his four delegates, including Talwah, to pursue Saudi interests in negotiations. ¶3. (C) Talwah described the G-77 as being divided and without a single voice. However, he said that five countries have enough influence to garner a consensus in the disparate group: China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. He believes that these five nations are the key to obtaining a "pragmatic" and "logical" agreement on climate change. He also feels that Saudi Arabia plays an important leadership role in the group and has some sway over its members. ¶4. (C) One subject where the G-77 countries agree, according to Talwah, is on the classification of developing countries vis-a-vis developed countries. The G-77 believes that they are all developing countries and should not be sub-divided or categorized into sub-groups. Saudi Arabia is in agreement with the G-77 on this position. SAUDI VIEWS ON U.S. ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS: -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Echoing observations made in reftel, Talwah views the Obama administration as not being forthcoming or forceful in climate change negotiations, though he does not think that is necessarily problematic. In his view, the most important contribution the U.S. can make to achieve a final agreement by Copenhagen is for Congress to pass a domestic climate change bill with specific emissions targets. ¶6. (C) Talwah also noted that King Abdullah and the Petroleum Minister Ali al-Naimi always instruct his delegation to cooperate with the U.S. In that light, he said Saudi Arabia would definitely meet with a small sub-group of countries at our request. One option he discussed with EconOff was meeting with the key G-77 countries he noted earlier: China, Brazil, India, South Africa plus the U.S. ¶7. (C) Asked how to make progress on the text of the climate change agreement in the upcoming sessions, Talwah dismissed it as not important at this stage. He does not anticipate the text being finalized until Copenhagen in any case. He believes that if the major obstacles of U.S. climate change legislation passing Congress and Chinese acquiesce to Western demands are overcome, the text will be completed. However, if those major issues are not addressed, then the text is irrelevant because an agreement will not be possible. SAUDI ARABIA AND BRAZIL DISAGREE ON CCS: -------------- ¶8. (C) According to Talwah, the Saudi position on CCS is non-negotiable and must be included under the CDM in any final DHAHRAN 00000201 002 OF 002 agreement. He said that Brazil has been the most significant impediment, as they stand to lose out on investment in reforestation and other carbon mitigating activities. He is optimistic that a breakthrough is possible, since many other countries (including the U.S.) support the measure and he is hopeful that their pressure will lead Brazil to back down. COMMENT: -------------- ¶9. (C) Talwah was very open and welcomed any follow-on meetings or discussions with Post. He seemed genuinely enthusiastic about meeting with the U.S. and a few other key G-77 nations to KENNY