STIFLED POTENTIAL: FIBER-OPTIC CABLE LANDS IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DAR ES SALAAM 000585 SENSITIVE SIPDIS AF/E FOR JTREADWELL COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL STATE PASS USAID, USTR, USTDA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ECPS EINT ETTC PGOV TZ SUBJECT: STIFLED POTENTIAL: FIBER-OPTIC CABLE LANDS IN TANZANIA ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The landing of the Seacom undersea fiber-optic cable presents Tanzania with significant opportunities for making voice traffic and data connections less expensive and more reliable. With proper management, this cable could be transformative for Tanzania across the development landscape. However, current trends point toward near-monopolistic control of this critical resource by telecoms parastatal TTCL, likely choking off the potential benefit of the cable (and others to follow). Despite years of notice, GOT preparations - both regulatory and for infrastructure - have been inadequate. In addition to proper regulation, significant investments in data infrastructure are needed at a national level before the benefits of the cable can be fully realized, both for private investors and the Tanzanian people. The current situation points to an increasing divide between Dar es Salaam and the rest of the country and is a further example of Tanzania lagging behind its neighbors in planning for economic development. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. Background -------------- ¶2. (U) Prior to the arrival of the Seacom cable on July 23, the east coast of Africa was the longest populated coastline on earth without access to a fiber-optic cable. The vast majority of international communications in Tanzania flow out via satellite. Without access to a terrestrial network, providers have been paying USD 3000-6000 a month for a one megabit satellite connection. Compare this to about USD 50 per month for the same capacity on a terrestrial network in most of the developed world. ¶3. (U) Seacom, a private consortium, marketed itself by claiming its broadband prices would be 80 percent lower than those being charged in the region, and that its business model of open investment into its landing stations would achieve "open access" pricing without complicated regulatory and policy frameworks. ¶4. (U) Seacom is the first of three fiber-optic cables landing in East Africa. With access to a high capacity fiber-optic cable, providers expect current prices to halve, and drop even further with the landings of the subsequent cables. The East African Marine System (TEAMS) cable, spearheaded by the Kenyan Government in partnership with UAE's Etisalat, has landed in Mombasa, but is not yet live. The East African Submarine Cable System, or EASSy, an initiative of the World Bank and the African Development Bank, is planned for completion in June ¶2010. No Magic Bullet -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Bringing the Seacom cable to Dar es Salaam was only the first step. Now, Tanzania faces the challenge of distributing this capacity around the country. The only provider currently wired into the Seacom Silver Sands beach landing site is the ailing telecoms parastatal TTCL (Tanzania Telecommunication Company Ltd.),which extends the fiber capacity into its Dar es Salaam station. Seacom will permit other providers to connect, but at a prohibitively steep price; Seacom requires a reported minimum payment of USD 4-5 million to secure a 20-year lease for direct access to the cable, with an additional USD 56,000 annually for maintenance. (Note: Seacom refuses to publicly confirm these prices and requires each lessee to sign a non-disclosure agreement, but multiple operators, including TTCL, have confirmed the figures to us. End Note) Though ISPs have been anticipating the landing of the Seacom cable for years now, and many have the wherewithal to build their own terrestrial networks, progress has been slow because of bureaucratic, regulatory and policy hurdles. ¶6. (U) In addition, many ISPs had little faith the cable would be completed on schedule, and therefore signed long term contracts with satellite providers and invested in satellite equipment. Prices likely won't drop until the satellite contracts expire and operators can recoup those costs. There are also technological and business re-engineering steps needed to adjust from a satellite to a fiber model. A month DAR ES SAL 00000585 002 OF 004 after the cable went live, and after years of expectation, only three, relatively small, private companies - Satcom, Raha and Simbanet - had leased fiber capacity from TTCL. Currently one Zanzibar ISP (Zanlink) is connected, and one national cellco, Zain. ¶7. (U) As a silver lining for consumers, ISPs agree that while prices will likely remain near current levels in the short to medium term due to infrastructure costs, quality of service will improve drastically, because of the faster and more reliable connectivity provided by the fiber. Monopoly Control -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The GOT owns the largest existing terrestrial fiber- optic network (extending to Morogoro, Tanga, Arusha and Mwanza),built by parastatal power company TANESCO, the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA),Tanzania Railway Corporation (TRC),TTCL and Songosongo Gas Supply (SONGAS). In June, the head of ICT for the Ministry of Communication, Science, and Technology stated the government would "regulate" the Seacom cable in order to "make sure that prices go down." However operators report TTCL is charging USD 130,000 per year for STM-1 access to their connecting infrastructure (compared with USD 4800 per year in Kenya, or USD 7-10,000 per month for a T1 connection (compared with USD 1500 in the US). TTCL's CEO and senior management team declined to confirm their rates to Econoff, saying only that their prices will be "affordable," in order to encourage users to leverage existing infrastructure rather than building redundant networks. End user prices, about USD 100 per month for a basic connection with a 2GB download limit, have not yet dropped significantly. ¶9. (SBU) Reportedly, the Ministry of Communications rebuffed an offer by a consortium of private and non-profit players involved in EASSy to build a fiber optic backbone and provide the GOT with free access. The Ministry made a public statement to the effect that while it was nice of the private sector to want to get involved, the government had things under control. (However, the Deputy Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Communications, Patrick Makungu, recently told Econoff that GOT "has no agenda against full private sector participation.") There is one limited private alternative, the cable TV incumbent CTV, which laid its own fiber LAN network in 1999. CTV service now extends to Morogoro, Dodoma, Mbeya and Tanga. CTV charges other providers USD 42000 per year for STM-1 capacity. The opportunity for this business was an unexpected stroke of luck; CTV had no plans to be a carrier, but filled a gap when it became clear Tanesco and TTCL were slow to supply the market demand for fiber infrastructure. ¶10. (SBU) Control of the fiber infrastructure was granted to TTCL by presidential order. Yet TTCL has been slow to make investments in expanding the national fiber infrastructure. In 2007, TTCL contracted China International Telecommunications Company (CITCC) to build a national ICT backbone. (NOTE: USTDA and the World Bank have estimated that the CITCC offer (about USD 170 million) was inflated by about 20 percent. According to a number of sources, the 20 percent cost overrun seems to have been part of the project design, to accommodate certain rent-seeking activities by GOT officials. The Chinese government itself is financing this project with a concessionary loan to the GOT. END NOTE.) The GOT recently announced that the 10,000 km National Backbone Infrastructure Project will enable fiber-optic technology to reach all regions by June 2010 and all districts by the end of 2011. However, this projection is wildly optimistic, since CITCC has barely broken ground. ¶11. (SBU) Private companies that want to build infrastructure face significant challenges in securing right-of-way licenses. According to ISP sources, Zantel, an ISP majority-owned by UAE's Etisalat, reportedly received a permit from TANROADS, only to have it revoked by the Ministry of Communications as "contrary to the national telecom policy." ¶12. (U) The CEO of the Tanzania Investment Center (TIC), Emmanuel Ole Naiko, said at a recent regional infrastructure conference that he "believes the private sector should be DAR ES SAL 00000585 003 OF 004 encouraged to take part" in building infrastructure. The Director General of the Tanzanian Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA),John Nkomo, emphasized that the resounding success of the Tanzanian mobile sector was due to competition. He highlighted the problem of right-of-way permission in delaying the development of crucial IT infrastructure. Both Nkomo and Ole Naiko, who has been quoted in the press recently sounding the alarm against creeping GOT "re-nationalizations," publicly urged the Ministry of Communications representative at the conference to take up the issue of right-of-way permits with the Permanent Secretary and the Minister. For its part, TTCL asserts that handing out permits to private operators would result in "chaos," and would need a high level of coordination at the local and national levels. The Future -------------- ¶13. (U) TTCL management is in flux during this critical stage. SaskTel, a Canadian telecommunications company that had managed TTCL since 2007, ended its management agreement in June after a dispute with the government. At a time when a coherent broadband strategy is crucial, the consequences of this shake-up are further hindering progress. Private ISPs complain TTCL is unreasonable to work with and that simple decisions are constantly delayed. Interim TTCL CEO Said Amir Said was quoted in a local daily on August 10 as saying that TTCL has hired a consultancy firm to draw up a new business plan and that the company is seeking loans from two Chinese banks and a local bank to finance its operations and purchase Chinese equipment. ¶14. (U) Competition between cable operators should be a key factor in pushing costs down and driving broadband penetration, especially with the arrival of the new undersea cables. Connection to TEAMS will have to wait until the national backbone reaches the Kenyan border at Namanga and Horohoro. Because of its World Bank funding, the EASSy cable may come with greater requirements for universal access. However, unless the other cables extend further inland than Seacom, the GOT will likely assume a similar level of control. A private ISP owner told Econoff that while Seacom is "like a dream" because the cable itself is a private venture with no government influence, the uncertainty created by TTCL's slow decision-making and action in connecting providers is "killing the industry." He was grateful that TTCL was "just incompetent and slow" and didn't seem to be competing for profit. ¶15. (U) Given the current landscape, many providers will likely avoid TTCL's unreliability and high prices by setting up their own point-to-point relay systems using microwave and wireless technologies. Tanzania's cell phone industry is highly competitive, and mobile carriers will play an important role in selling capacity to customers using their 3G networks. 3.5G networks are already in service, though with limited geographic coverage, and sufficient bandwidth (30 MHz of spectrum each) has been allocated for Wimax, which can handle larger amounts of data. Though not as fast as fiber, these wireless connections will have the advantage of avoiding right-of-way licenses and of relatively safety from vandalism or damage. ¶16. (SBU) Controlling third party access to the Seacom fiber while selling data services to customers is a significant conflict of interest for TTCL. Due to TTCL's bloated bureaucracy and slowness to adapt, private ISPs would prefer TTCL limit itself to being a wholesale "carrier of carriers." Telecom regulator Nkomo candidly stated that "TTCL cannot compete" with private providers and that its "service is terrible." ¶17. (SBU) Funding is available to support the spread of the internet in Tanzania. The World Bank has committed USD 100m through its Regional Communications Infrastructure Program for last-mile initiatives, e-government and capacity-building. However, even some Bank officials are skeptical of the GOT's anti-competitive approach to internet access. A recent Bank report noted a correlation between increased broadband penetration and GDP growth; Tanzania appears unlikely to take DAR ES SAL 00000585 004 OF 004 advantage. ¶18. (SBU) Tanzania's East African Community partners were much better prepared for the arrival of the broadband cables; Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda are leaving Tanzania far behind by building numerous publicly and privately funded terrestrial fiber networks at national and municipal levels. Several industry sources say that Rwanda's President Kagame is pressuring Kikwete to hurry up the building of Tanzania's backbone so that his tiny landlocked country can gain access. At the recent infrastructure conference, TIC's Ole Naiko stated: "I hope the government and private sector will increase investment so surrounding landlocked countries can connect." ANDRE