President Kikwete Rallies Zanzibar CCM Party

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000054

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E JLIDDLE; INR/RAA: FEHRENRIECH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR TZ
SUBJECT: President Kikwete Rallies Zanzibar CCM Party
Supporters But Shrugs off Reconciliation

REFS: (A) 08 Dar es Salaam 844; (B) 08 Dar es Salaam 839;
(C) 08 Dar es Salaam 643; (D) 08 Dar es Salaam 444


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On January 25 President Jakaya Kikwete
headlined a Zanzibar political rally in his capacity as
ruling Revolutionary Party (CCM) Secretary-General.
Kikwete listed numerous achievements attained in
infrastructure and social services, attributing the gains to
CCM and Zanzibar President Karume's "leadership." Kikwete
denied there was a "dual standard" between development of
the two islands that make up Zanzibar, Unguja and Pemba.
(Comment: However, even casual observers readily see the
obvious disparity that disfavors opposition stronghold
Pemba. End Comment.) By avoiding the question of
reconciliation with the opposition ("muafaka"),Kikwete
conveyed a message of "more of the same" in a charged
political environment headed for conflict absent strong
leadership. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On Sunday January 25, Zanzibar Affairs Specialist
(ZAS) observed a ruling Revolution Party (CCM) rally at
Kibandamaiti in the Urban West Region of the main Zanzibar
island of Unguja. The rally was organized to mark the end
of President Jakaya Kikwete's five-day tour of the
Zanzibari isles of Unguja and Pemba. Kikwete spoke to the
crowd in his capacity as CCM party Secretary General.
Dispensing at the outset with the question of
reconciliation with the opposition party, Kikwete called
critics of the Zanzibar government "drunkards," a strong
epithet for a community that is 98 percent Muslim.
However, for the body of the speech Kikwete chose a more
collegial tone and gave the impression that he came to
Zanzibar to rally the party by diffusing ongoing CCM intra-
party conflicts, to which the CCM Urban Region Chair had
inferred earlier on (ref A).


3. (U) Kikwete's speech concentrated on achievements that
the Zanzibar government had registered on Unguja and Pemba,
which he said was reflected by solid progress made in
infrastructure, social services, peace and stability and
consolidation of the Union. He began by saying that "the
Zanzibar Government under Karume" has been able to
construct and spread good tarmac roads across the islands,
noting that Zanzibar's progress even surpassed mainland
Tanzania. Kikwete also talked about the power problem of
Pemba (ref B) and asked people not to believe that Pembans
were deliberately subjected to this hardship. Blaming the
power problem on a "dilapidated" generating system, he said
"the Governments of Tanzania and Zanzibar, through
Norwegian assistance, are going to solve the power problem
in Pemba once and for all," promising a cable connecting
Pemba to the mainland would be finished by December 2009.
(Comment: the Norwegians told us that the Pemba power line
would unlikely be completed until after the October 2010
elections. End Comment.). Kikwete also mentioned that the
Government would construct a marine cable from the mainland
to Unguja "with MCC support," although he did not give
details about the Millennium Challenge Account or mention
that it was a partnership with the United States.


4. (U) Another issue that Kikwete spoke about was the
delivery of social services. He congratulated Karume for
equally dividing services between the people of Unguja and
Pemba, boasting that while in Pemba he, Kikwete,
"inaugurated a water reservoir tank at Kengeja and told the
recipient community that the CCM government was responsible
for delivering the services even to the people that did not
vote for it." Kikwete also praised the good performance of
the Zanzibar government in the health sector. While making
no reference to PEPFAR, USAID or the CDC, Kikwete praised
Zanzibar for considerably reducing malaria, which he said
was still a problem on mainland Tanzania.


5. (U) On law and order, Kikwete credited the CCM party for
"the peace and stability the people were enjoying nation-
wide." Likewise, he claimed to have diffused the partisan
conflicts that he said were severe previously. Regarding

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the union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar, Kikwete assured
people that the party was "properly handling all problems
facing the Union." Kikwete noted that soon the Zanzibar
Election Commission (ZEC) would be registering voters and
finalizing voting lists. He said that moment should spur
CCM party members into full campaign mode.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Even some of the more diehard party
members in the audience commented to ZAS that some of
Kikwete's boasts about Karume's leadership in delivering
Zanzibar development were disingenuous. By standing next
to Karume and singing his praises to a crowd intimately
aware of his failures, Kikwete may have furthered cynicism
among party supporters. Nonetheless, Kikwete's speech
likely was aimed at reinforcing his support for Karume
against Zanzibar CCM party barons actively savaging their
own party as they compete against each other for the crown
of Karume, who is statutorily prevented from running again
in 2010. However, Kikwete did not leave any hints about
whom he might support to replace Karume. For the
opposition, who might have been listening for an opening
toward reconciliation, calling them "drunkards" was not
helpful. Finally, for the vast majority of apolitical
Zanzibaris, Kikwete's deliberate blurring of voter
registration and the CCM campaign, between civil government
and CCM party politics, will reinforce the widely shared
notion that ZEC is a CCM party organ and not a civil
service-run honest broker in conducting elections. In sum,
Kikwete, in trying to rally the fractured Zanzibar CCM
party, instead might have conveyed a message of "more of
the same" in a charged political environment headed for
conflict and perhaps even violence (which has occured in
every multi-party election to take place in the islands)
absent strong leadership for a change of course. END
COMMENT.

ANDRE