President Kikwete Rallies Zanzibar CCM Party

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000054 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E JLIDDLE; INR/RAA: FEHRENRIECH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR TZ SUBJECT: President Kikwete Rallies Zanzibar CCM Party Supporters But Shrugs off Reconciliation REFS: (A) 08 Dar es Salaam 844; (B) 08 Dar es Salaam 839; (C) 08 Dar es Salaam 643; (D) 08 Dar es Salaam 444 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On January 25 President Jakaya Kikwete headlined a Zanzibar political rally in his capacity as ruling Revolutionary Party (CCM) Secretary-General. Kikwete listed numerous achievements attained in infrastructure and social services, attributing the gains to CCM and Zanzibar President Karume's "leadership." Kikwete denied there was a "dual standard" between development of the two islands that make up Zanzibar, Unguja and Pemba. (Comment: However, even casual observers readily see the obvious disparity that disfavors opposition stronghold Pemba. End Comment.) By avoiding the question of reconciliation with the opposition ("muafaka"),Kikwete conveyed a message of "more of the same" in a charged political environment headed for conflict absent strong leadership. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On Sunday January 25, Zanzibar Affairs Specialist (ZAS) observed a ruling Revolution Party (CCM) rally at Kibandamaiti in the Urban West Region of the main Zanzibar island of Unguja. The rally was organized to mark the end of President Jakaya Kikwete's five-day tour of the Zanzibari isles of Unguja and Pemba. Kikwete spoke to the crowd in his capacity as CCM party Secretary General. Dispensing at the outset with the question of reconciliation with the opposition party, Kikwete called critics of the Zanzibar government "drunkards," a strong epithet for a community that is 98 percent Muslim. However, for the body of the speech Kikwete chose a more collegial tone and gave the impression that he came to Zanzibar to rally the party by diffusing ongoing CCM intra- party conflicts, to which the CCM Urban Region Chair had inferred earlier on (ref A). ¶3. (U) Kikwete's speech concentrated on achievements that the Zanzibar government had registered on Unguja and Pemba, which he said was reflected by solid progress made in infrastructure, social services, peace and stability and consolidation of the Union. He began by saying that "the Zanzibar Government under Karume" has been able to construct and spread good tarmac roads across the islands, noting that Zanzibar's progress even surpassed mainland Tanzania. Kikwete also talked about the power problem of Pemba (ref B) and asked people not to believe that Pembans were deliberately subjected to this hardship. Blaming the power problem on a "dilapidated" generating system, he said "the Governments of Tanzania and Zanzibar, through Norwegian assistance, are going to solve the power problem in Pemba once and for all," promising a cable connecting Pemba to the mainland would be finished by December 2009. (Comment: the Norwegians told us that the Pemba power line would unlikely be completed until after the October 2010 elections. End Comment.). Kikwete also mentioned that the Government would construct a marine cable from the mainland to Unguja "with MCC support," although he did not give details about the Millennium Challenge Account or mention that it was a partnership with the United States. ¶4. (U) Another issue that Kikwete spoke about was the delivery of social services. He congratulated Karume for equally dividing services between the people of Unguja and Pemba, boasting that while in Pemba he, Kikwete, "inaugurated a water reservoir tank at Kengeja and told the recipient community that the CCM government was responsible for delivering the services even to the people that did not vote for it." Kikwete also praised the good performance of the Zanzibar government in the health sector. While making no reference to PEPFAR, USAID or the CDC, Kikwete praised Zanzibar for considerably reducing malaria, which he said was still a problem on mainland Tanzania. ¶5. (U) On law and order, Kikwete credited the CCM party for "the peace and stability the people were enjoying nation- wide." Likewise, he claimed to have diffused the partisan conflicts that he said were severe previously. Regarding DAR ES SAL 00000054 002 OF 002 the union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar, Kikwete assured people that the party was "properly handling all problems facing the Union." Kikwete noted that soon the Zanzibar Election Commission (ZEC) would be registering voters and finalizing voting lists. He said that moment should spur CCM party members into full campaign mode. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Even some of the more diehard party members in the audience commented to ZAS that some of Kikwete's boasts about Karume's leadership in delivering Zanzibar development were disingenuous. By standing next to Karume and singing his praises to a crowd intimately aware of his failures, Kikwete may have furthered cynicism among party supporters. Nonetheless, Kikwete's speech likely was aimed at reinforcing his support for Karume against Zanzibar CCM party barons actively savaging their own party as they compete against each other for the crown of Karume, who is statutorily prevented from running again in 2010. However, Kikwete did not leave any hints about whom he might support to replace Karume. For the opposition, who might have been listening for an opening toward reconciliation, calling them "drunkards" was not helpful. Finally, for the vast majority of apolitical Zanzibaris, Kikwete's deliberate blurring of voter registration and the CCM campaign, between civil government and CCM party politics, will reinforce the widely shared notion that ZEC is a CCM party organ and not a civil service-run honest broker in conducting elections. In sum, Kikwete, in trying to rally the fractured Zanzibar CCM party, instead might have conveyed a message of "more of the same" in a charged political environment headed for conflict and perhaps even violence (which has occured in every multi-party election to take place in the islands) absent strong leadership for a change of course. END COMMENT. ANDRE