SCENESETTER FOR UPCOMING SHIP VISIT TO TANZANIA

UNCLAS DAR ES SALAAM 000502

SIPDIS

DEPT AF/E FOR JTREADWELL
AFRICOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EAID MARR TZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR UPCOMING SHIP VISIT TO TANZANIA

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED


1. (U) Embassy welcomes the upcoming ship visit to Tanzania. This
cable provides background information on the U.S.-Tanzanian
bilateral relationship and Tanzanian domestic issues. This cable
has been cleared by DATT.


2. (SBU) Although the U.S. and Tanzania do not have a Status of
Forces Agreement, in the event of an incident involving a U.S.
service member on shore during the visit, the Government of Tanzania
(GOT) would likely work with the Embassy to resolve the situation
and minimize public attention. The Tanzania People's Defense Force
(TPDF) in particular would be eager to seek an amicable resolution
of any incident. Tanzania has a generally free and very active
press, some of which has a residual anti-American bias. An incident
involving a U.S. service member would likely attract considerable
local press attention.

Political and Economic Background
--------------

3. (SBU) Tanzania's long record of peace and stability make it an
example for the region. Multi-party democracy was restored in the
early 1990s, and with President Kikwete's landslide election in
2005, Tanzania has seen three peaceful presidential transitions.
Macroeconomic reforms since the 1980s, marking a transition from
socialism towards a free-market system, have provided a basis for
sustained moderately high economic growth. President Kikwete, a
Muslim, governs a population approximately 65 percent Christian;
relations between religious communities have generally been
harmonious. The site of a 1998 terrorist attack on the U.S.
Embassy, Tanzania has porous borders with its eight neighbors and an
800 mile coastline.


4. (SBU) Tanzania remains among the worlds' poorest countries, with
per capita GDP of approximately USD 415 and 80 percent of the
population engaged in mostly small-scale agriculture. Despite
overall economic growth, recently released data shows over one
million more people living in poverty as compared to 2001.
Infrastructure remains rudimentary; red tape and corruption impede
private sector development. The recent worldwide economic shocks
have contributed to increased inflation, over ten percent for the
first time in several years, as well as concerns about sustaining
economic growth. The tourism industry, one of Tanzania's main
foreign exchange earners, expects a significant decrease in demand;
Americans account for half of all high-end tourists. There are
positive signs that HIV/AIDS prevalence is not increasing and may be
on a downward trend, as the HIV prevalence rate for 15-49 year-olds
has decreased from seven percent (2003) to 5.7 percent (2007).


5. (SBU) Politically, Tanzania remains dominated by the Chama Cha
Mapinduzi (CCM) party, which has ruled since independence. While
elections on the mainland have generally been free and fair, serious
irregularities and sporadic violence have marred elections in the
autonomous islands of Zanzibar. President Kikwete is expected to
stand for election again in 2010, while Zanzibar's President is
term-limited and will step down. Parliament, long dormant, is
increasingly exercising its oversight function on an executive
branch accustomed to governing unchecked.


6. (SBU) While a substantial majority of mainland Tanzanians support
the ruling CCM over opposition parties, on Zanzibar support for CCM
and the main opposition, the Civic United Front (CUF),is evenly
divided. Bitter conflict between the two parties, and between
Zanzibar's two islands of Unguja and Pemba, persist, with CUF
refusing to recognize the outcome of the flawed 2005 elections.
President Kikwete announced reconciliation on Zanzibar as a priority
for his government in 2005, but talks between the parties started
slowly and stalled in 2008. CUF leaders' insistence on a
power-sharing government prior to the 2010 elections was rebuffed by
the islands' CCM rulers. While President Kikwete personally
monitored progress of the talks, he has not wielded his position as
CCM party chairman or his offices as Head of State to successfully
broker an agreement that would be fair and equitable to both sides.
CUF leaders have warned that the party membership is increasingly
disillusioned with the democratic process.

U.S.-Tanzanian Bilateral Relationship
--------------

7. (SBU) Since the election of President Kikwete in December 2005,
U.S.-Tanzanian bilateral relations have significantly deepened.
President Kikwete's pro-Western stance, coupled with an increasing
level of U.S. assistance, has been the catalyst for this change,
enhancing cooperation in sectors from health and education to
counterterrorism and military affairs. President Kikwete has
visited the U.S. several times since taking office, including an
official visit in August 2008 and a meeting with President Obama in
May 2009. The public signing of the MCC compact during President
Bush's February 2008 visit to Tanzania, and the favorable public
reaction to the visit, further cemented the relationship. A 2008
Pew Global Attitudes Poll showed a 19 percent increase, to 65
percent, of Tanzanians who have a favorable attitude towards the
U.S.


8. (SBU) Under the leadership of President Kikwete, a former Foreign
Minister, Tanzania has played an increasingly prominent role in
regional issues. Kikwete finished a one-year term as Chairman of
the African Union (AU) in January 2009. In that role, he overcame
South African reticence to proceed with an AU mission to Comoros
that restored national rule on the island of Anjouan. He has also
spoken out against military coups in Mauritania and Guinea and the
unconstitutional change in power in Madagascar. Within the Southern
Africa Development Community (SADC),Tanzania has played a
relatively quiet but positive role with respect to Zimbabwe.
Tanzania is also a member of the East African Community, whose
hesitant steps towards economic integration have been limited by
Tanzanian concerns about competition from Kenya. Tanzania has for
many years played a constructive role in the Burundi peace process.
Tanzania has expressed interest in participating in efforts to
control Somali piracy.


9. (SBU) Tanzania has long hosted refugees from the region's
conflict areas. The number has declined from more than a million in
the late 1990s to about 100,000 currently (the U.S. has provided
significant support for UN operations in the refugee camps and is
one of the main resettlement destinations),mainly from Burundi and
the Democratic Republic of Congo. Over ninety thousand Burundian
refugees returned home in 2008. Tanzania is also host to the
International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda.

Military-to-Military Relations
--------------

10. (SBU) Under the Kikwete administration, the GOT has begun
participating in international peacekeeping operations. Tanzania
deployed 75 military police to Lebanon in 2007 to help secure the
UNIFIL mission. This year, the USG's African Contingency Training
and Assistance (ACOTA) program will train a third company to rotate
into UNIFIL. Through ACOTA, the USG is supporting Tanzania as it
deploys an initial battalion to Darfur as part of the UN
peacekeeping mission. ACOTA will train an additional two battalions
for deployment to Darfur, at least one in 2009; all three battalions
will also constitute part of an AU regional standby brigade.


11. (SBU) The Tanzanian government has signaled its desire to deepen
military-to-military ties with the U.S. In December 2006, the GOT
gave approval to CJTF-HOA to establish a Civil Affairs presence on
the Swahili Coast. The Civil Affairs team (which we have rebranded
as "AFRICOM") is carrying out humanitarian projects and helping
build civil military operations capacity within the Tanzania Peoples
Defense Forces (TPDF). In early 2008, the USG provided logistical
assistance to support the African Union-led military operation in
the Comoros Islands. The DOD PEPFAR program - the largest in Africa
- has since its 2005 establishment guided the renovation and
refurbishment of all military hospitals and laboratories. This
partnership is now expanding to include cooperation on malaria and
influenza control activities. U.S. naval ship visits to Dar es
Salaam in September 2007 and February 2009 were the first since
Tanzanian independence. The first ever official visit by a sitting
Tanzanian Chief of Defense Forces to the U.S. took place in May

2009. As a result of our increased military-to-military cooperation,
President Kikwete has expressed interest in signing a Status of
Forces Agreement between the U.S. and Tanzania; however, progress
towards an agreement has been slow.

U.S. Strategic Priorities
--------------

12. (SBU) The USG's strategic priorities in Tanzania are:
(i) building the GOT's counterterrorism (CT) capacity and promoting
security;
(ii) strengthening Tanzania's democratic institutions and
accountability, through parliamentary capacity building and

anti-corruption efforts;
(iii) improving education by ensuring equal access and improved
opportunities to remote and underserved communities, especially
focused on girls in Muslim and pastoralist areas;
(iv) improving health by preventing the spread and mitigating the
impact of HIV/AIDS, combating malaria, enhancing reproductive,
maternal and child health services, ensuring access to clean water
and sanitation, and strengthening health systems;
(v) spurring sustainable economic growth through significant
investments in transport, energy and water infrastructure, policy
reform, agriculture, natural resources and biodiversity; and
(vi) influencing public opinion, especially among Tanzania's
Muslims, who tend to view U.S. policy as anti-Islam.


13. (SBU) The USG supports these strategic priorities with active
diplomatic engagement and a generous foreign assistance program.
Although Tanzania enjoys the support of numerous donor countries,
the U.S. is one of the top donors in Tanzania in dollar amounts. In
FY08, total USG bilateral assistance ran to nearly USD 400 million,
including initiatives such as PEPFAR and PMI. Taking into account
the U.S. share of contributions from multilateral donors such as the
World Bank and African Development Bank, U.S. assistance totaled USD
662 million in 2008. This does not include major private U.S.
benefactors such as the Gates Foundation. Other major donors
include the U.K., Sweden, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and the
European Commission.


14. (SBU) To ensure that corruption does not undermine development
efforts, we are supporting government and civil society
anti-corruption efforts. The Kikwete administration has taken steps
to combat corruption, including appointing a new Director of the
Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau (PCCB) and passing two
pieces of legislation: the Anti-Money Laundering Bill and the
Anti-Corruption Bill. Recently, the drive against corruption has
picked up again. The first major court cases on grand corruption
began in November 2008, with the arrests of individuals whose
companies were alleged to have fraudulently received funds from the
Bank of Tanzania (BOT),along with several BOT employees. Shortly
thereafter, two long-serving former ministers were jailed on
corruption-related charges.


15. (SBU) In the wake of the 1998 Embassy bombing, we are actively
engaged in furthering counterterrorism (CT) cooperation with the
Tanzanian government. The Mission has an integrated strategy
involving modernization of Tanzania's law enforcement as well as
winning the hearts and minds of the Tanzanian people. Our work in
Pemba--a majority Muslim island--exemplifies this strategy. We have
knit together cultural preservation projects to repair historic
mosques, self-help projects to improve rural livelihoods, and
significant USAID malaria control and education programs. MCC will
rehabilitate and improve up to 36 kilometers of rural roads in Pemba
under the Compact. In addition, CDC is providing HIV prevention and
treatment services at the central hospital in Pemba. USAID and
AFRICOM are partnering to build and furnish a primary school. The
Mission recently inaugurated an American Corner in Pemba to advance
Islamic outreach efforts. Another key component of the Mission's
strategy is helping the government establish its own national,
interagency CT Center to collect, share and analyze CT data.

Health Challenges: HIV/AIDS and Malaria
--------------

16. (SBU) Tanzania faces a mature generalized HIV epidemic, with a
prevalence rate of approximately 5.8 percent and 1.4 million people
living with HIV/AIDS. An estimated 440,000 individuals are
clinically eligible for antiretroviral treatment; however, available
services can support less than half of those in need. In FY 2008,
PEPFAR provided Tanzania with over USD 313 million to support
treatment, care, and prevention programs. In FY 2009, the PEPFAR
planning budget is USD 309 million, and will have access to an
additional $50 million under an approved Partnership Framework. The
PEPFAR program has exceeded its original PEPFAR targets of providing
anti-retroviral treatment for 150,000 individuals and care for
750,000 individuals, including orphans and vulnerable children.
Although the U.S. has fostered positive relationships with the
m[Q\_wtgQent procurement system; and allegations of
corruption in the public and private sectors. We recently entered
into very productive negotiations with the GOT on a PEPFAR
Partnership Framework Agreement, which would deepen our relationship
over the coming five years. We are also working to increase our
coordination with - and the effectiveness of - Global Fund grants to
Tanzania for HIV/AIDS, HIV/TB and malaria.


17. (SBU) Malaria is the number one killer of children in Tanzania
and continues to be a major cause of maternal mortality. As a focus
country under the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI),Tanzania
received USD 34 million in FY 2008 to support the delivery of
long-lasting, insecticide treated bed-nets, the care and treatment
of malaria, the malaria in pregnancy program, and indoor residual
insecticide spraying. Malaria has been eliminated as a public
health problem on Zanzibar: the recent 2007-2008 Malaria Indicator
Survey (MIS) suggests that malaria prevalence is less than 1% on the
islands.

Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)
--------------

18. (SBU) In September 2008, the MCC Compact signed by Presidents
Kikwete and Bush entered into full force and effect. It is the
largest Compact signed to date ($698.136 million) and is targeted to
address significant weaknesses in Tanzania's long-neglected
transport (roads and an airport),energy, and water infrastructure.
A significant amount of required preparatory work (environmental
studies, finalization of technical designs, and planning for
resettlement and compensation) has been completed or is underway.
The next several months will see resettlement compensation payments
being made (starting in July) and procurements launched for the bulk
of the construction and supervision work. On the strategic
political front, our message continues to be that a Compact is an
agreement of reciprocal responsibilities; to sustain it over five
years, Tanzania must pay heed to its corruption index and be
vigilant at all levels to ensure transparency and accountability in
governance.


19. (SBU) Tanzania also received MCC Threshold funds - USD 11.2
million - from FY2005 to 2007. The Threshold program, which closed
in September 2008, focused on, among other things, enhancing civil
society's capacity to demand anti-corruption reform and fighting
corruption in public procurement. The program trained more than 250
journalists in investigative reporting skills; some of these
journalists were involved in breaking grand corruption stories. The
program also enhanced local-level accountability by helping
establish a network of 77 public expenditure tracking committees.
Finally, and most importantly, the Threshold program helped the
country's procurement regulator carry out several audits of the
procurement practices of key GOT entities. In February 2008, one of
these audits sparked and informed a Parliamentary investigation
which resulted in the resignation of the Prime Minister.

ANDRE