ZANZIBAR: DONORS SEEK COMMON POSITION ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000385 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT. FOR AF/E: JLIDDLE AND INR/RAA:FEHRENREICH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PREL PGOV TZ SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: DONORS SEEK COMMON POSITION ON ELECTIONS, POLITICAL RECONCILIATION REF: (A) DAR ES SALAAM 340 (B) DAR ES SALAAM 444 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Key donor nations agree that the political impasse in Zanzibar constitutes a "risk situation." There was a consensus that donors needed to reinforce their concerns with GOT and Zanzibar interlocutors and to press for change through a common position. Norway and Netherlands are looking at establishing "Zanzibar Affairs Officers" at their respective embassies. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On June 9 Sweden, as EU President, hosted its second meeting to coordinate positions and share information in the lead-up to Tanzania's 2010 General Elections. Present were ambassadors and charges from the UK, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Canada, Japan, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the European Commission. Also in attendance were the UN Country Director, representatives from UNDP and UK's DfID, Political Counselors from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, UK and Canada, in addition to the U.S. P/E Chief and Zanzibar Affairs Officer. Most of the discussion centered on Zanzibar, where there was a consensus that the archipelago represented a "risk situation." ¶3. (U) Swedish Ambassador Herrstrom recalled a recent visit of European Ambassadors to Zanzibar as well as a recent observation mission of key donor countries to witness the by-election held May 23 in Zanzibar's Magogoni District (ref A). Herrstrom said he was "impressed" by the lack of trust among the parties, particularly among opposition party CUF. He hoped donors could form a broad consensus on what might be pre-conditions for a peaceful, free and fair election in ¶2010. He also asked delegations to work together to harmonize key messages that all could use when dealing with Tanzanian political leaders. ¶4. (SBU) Norway, which has just opened a Consulate in Zanzibar, said it would ramp-up its political activity in Zanzibar by sending a contracted "Zanzibar Affairs Officer" who would be active in the region up to the 2010 elections. The person they would send, a political scientist, performed a similar function in 2005 in Zanzibar. Norway thought the Zanzibar Election Commission had a more "positive approach" than in previous elections, although there was still some political interference with the body. Of concern for now was 
voter registration, which was rigged in favor of ruling CCM and which might be difficult to monitor. Norway also warned delegations to be more critical in their conversations with opposition CUF, noting that the party also had the power to be disruptive to the electoral process. Who CCM/Zanzibar names as its leader going into 2010 will also be crucial for a stable, post-Karume transition. Delegations should continue a "constructive dialogue" with likely candidates, reinforcing shared goals and sharing information when possible. ¶5. (SBU) Soon-to-depart Dutch Ambassador Van Kesteren, the only Ambassador at the meeting who was personally present in Zanzibar during the 2005 General Elections (thought by most observers to have been flawed),was critical of the present government's ability to hold free and fair elections. He said there was no real change with CCM/Zanzibar since multi-party elections began. Senior members of CCM still were of the "win at all costs" mentality. Van Kesteren called on delegations to play "hardball." Donors should draft a common letter to ZEC with agreed-upon minimum conditions that needed to be present on the ground by a specific date, say November or December 2009. Should those conditions not be met, then donors would "pull the plug" on paying for or otherwise supporting the elections, labeling them a "fraud." (COMMENT: after the meeting Van Kesteren confided to ZAO that his Embassy was requesting The Hague to re-assign an officer DAR ES SAL 00000385 002 OF 002 in the Dutch Embassy's political section to perform as a "Zanzibar Affairs Officer," "along the lines of the U.S. Embassy model," he said. END COMMENT). ¶6. (U) UN Resident Coordinator Fernandez-Taranco said that there was a difference between the political and technical aspects of an election, and that 2010 would be a vast improvement over previous elections on the technical side. The UN has had successful outreach with security forces and the youth wings of the respective parties. The by-elections over the past months showed tangible results of those encounters. Meanwhile, registration and contestation by political parties were the core issues for elections anywhere. Donors should build on recent successes and continue to build trust with ZEC and with the parties. The UN Country Director also cautioned the group to ensure their election observers follow internationally recognized codes of conduct. He said ZEC had made some informal complaints to the UN with respect to the Magogoni observers; delegations should be careful they don't compromise the process. ¶7. (SBU) EC Ambassador Tim Clarke said that he, too, saw no change in the overall political atmosphere in Zanzibar over the years, but that there was still time to work on "leveling the playing field." Training for international observers and common talking points among the donors was a good first start. The UK High Commissioner said that any common theme repeated by donors should have at its core the message that we supported the Union of Tanzania and instability in Zanzibar reflected on the nation as a whole. The French Ambassador said "the problem with drawing a line in the sand was that it often was washed away at high tide." Finland recalled that after the failed, violent 1996 elections in Zanzibar, the Finnish Government reduced its support for Tanzania, a position that was hard to sustain over time given the real humanitarian issues facing the country. Japan said it hoped to join any consensus that emerged within a UN framework. ¶8. (SBU) Sweden concluded that "Kikwete holds the key" toward any broad-based change of tone in the islands. Norway agreed to circulate draft points to use as a common basis of engagement with political actors in the run-up to 2010 and asked for input by June 12. ¶9. (SBU) Embassy proposes to offer language along the following lines to serve as basis for a common position on Zanzibar among donor nations: -- Our assistance is for the people of Tanzania, not any particular political party. On Zanzibar, we implement our assistance in cooperation with whatever government Zanzibaris choose to elect. -- Any political instability in Zanzibar damages the international reputation of Zanzibar as a whole. -- Given historically thin pluralities between Zanzibar political parties, a system with no avenue for the losing party to influence change is a recipe for continued tension. Political tension impedes development. -- Development partners expect transparent, free and fair elections in 2010, held in a climate of civility and security. Our continued engagement at current levels is based on that assumption. MUSHINGI