ZANZIBAR: CDA MEETS WITH PRESIDENT KARUME

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 000126


AF/E FOR JLIDDLE; INR/RAA: FEHRENRIECH

E.O. 12958: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: CDA MEETS WITH PRESIDENT KARUME

REF: (A) DAR ES SALAAM 125 (B) DAR ES SALAAM 75 (C)
08 DAR ES SALAAM 444

Classified By: CDA Larry Andre for reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY: On 24 February CDA and
Zanzibar Affairs Officer (ZAO) met with Zanzibar President
Amani Abeid Karume for a tour d'horizon courtesy call at
which the CDA also introduced the ZAO and explained the
concept of American Presence Posts (APPs) and the U.S. intent
in establishing the ZAO position. The two reviewed American
engagement in Zanzibar, and Karume spoke about his most
salient achievements during his eight-years in office (Karume
is scheduled to step down in 2010). Karume welcomed
follow-up briefings by the Millennium Challenge Account (MCC)
and Peace Corps Country Directors on their respective
activities in Zanzibar. Karume seemed to take for granted
that reconciliation between the islands and between the
ruling CCM party and the opposition CUF were all but settled.
He took a nationalistic stance viz-a-viz the Union with
Tanzania, remaining pro-Union but with a need for a balance
of power even more favorable to Zanzibar. END INTRODUCTION
AND SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On the establishment of a U.S. Embassy Zanzibar
Affairs Office/APP, Karume said the Tanzanian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs had asked him for his views on the matter
about a year ago. Karume welcomed the idea and asked that
any incoming U.S. official be given agrement with the title
"Consul," with the hope that a U.S. Embassy field office on
Zanzibar might eventually be upgraded to the status of
Consulate and include visa and Consular services. Karume
reviewed the 175-year history of U.S. diplomatic engagement
on Zanzibar, mentioning distinguished former American consuls
such as Frank Carlucci and Thomas Pickering. He said that an
American office in Zanzibar would be a "seal of approval"
that the archipelago was "on the map" and open for renewed
tourism and business. He hoped other nations would then
follow the American lead. (NOTE: Zanzibar hosts permanent
Consulates of China, India, Oman, Egypt and Mozambique, but
other countries are served through Consular agents and
circuit riders. END NOTE). On U.S. disease control efforts,
Karume praised our AIDS and malaria activities. He thought
the malaria work was particularly important, recalling that
he himself had been a victim of malaria.

Karume on Reconciliation
--------------


3. (SBU) CDA broadened the discussion by asking Karume what
he thought his "legacy" would be after completing his term of
office, less than two years away (Karume will leave office in
2010 and is prevented from running again after two five-year
terms of office). Karume said that when he became President
in 2000, the political landscape was one of "acrimony," with
a high degree of polarization. He said that previously
relations between the main islands of Pemba and Unguja were
"lukewarm at best," and as late as 1995 Pemban protesters
would break schools and contaminate wells" to show their
dissatisfaction that the government had made no effort at
engagement. Since hen Karume said he has been successful in
bringing people together, and today Zanzibaris make little
distinction about what island one is from. He said a key to
this achievement was the establishment of "Development
Committees (DCs)." The DCs, he explained, were bipartisan
teams established at the District level to parse out funds
and activities of the Tanzanian Social Action Fund, which was
sponsored by the World Bank. Under the fund, at least 20% of
local projects needed to be self-generated either by "cash or
kind." In that way, local development was achieved together
by communities and owned together, regardless of party
affiliation. Prior to his presidency, Karume claimed that
such progress had never before occurred.


4. (U) On "Muafaka," the negotiations between ruling party
CCM and opposition CUF to work out a power sharing deal
(which broke down in May 2008 after an ad ref agreement that
the CCM side said should be put to a referendum and the CUF
side said should be implemented by the CCM government),
Karume said the "people should be the ones to decide." After
a public vote on Muafaka (which both parties would jointly
campaign in favor of),Karume said that both parties should
then campaign during the 2010 General Elections on the basis
of the same agreement, greatly lowering strife. What
remained now was for CUF to come back to the table to discuss
the best way to explain the agreement to the people, he said.

Karume on Economic Reform
--------------


5. (SBU) Karume seemed most proud of his "behind-the-scenes"
effort to straighten out Zanzibar's budget and move Social
Security and the Zanzibar "People's Bank" back into solvency.
Karume said that when he took office, there were up to
three-month salary arrearages owed to government employees.
"That's now history," he boasted. Eight years ago he said
the People's Bank was heavily in debt due to Zanzibar
Government borrowing. Karume said he put a moratorium on
government borrowing from the bank, still in effect, and he
began a strict repayment regime. The Zanzibar Government is
still a major share holder in the bank, so that when the bank
started to get back on its feet, he was able to roll over the
Government's dividends back into the repayment regime such
that now the loan payments are self-sustaining. He said that
the Bank of Tanzania is the regulating authority of the
People's Bank, and recently the BoT has issued a permanent
license to the People's Bank.


6. (U) On Social Security, which is a public-private financed
institution, Karume said that before his mandate the Zanzibar
government was not paying its share of salary contributions
(Note: Government remains the largest employer in Zanzibar).
Karume said that when he straightened out the wage problem,
concomitant with that he brought the Government back in line
with its Social Security obligations.

Karume on Infrastructure and Education
--------------


7. (SBU) The thing that most visitors notice when they visit
Zanzibar, Karume said, was its good quality road network,
especially in comparison with mainland Tanzania. Good roads
were key to most other development, Karume believed. He said
his "obsession" with roads sprang from his first trip to the
U.S. back in 1975, where he saw that good roads were key to
internal cohesion and economic power. He started pushing for
roads after his return, but as a young functionary in the
Finance Ministry he was laughed at. He got himself
transferred to the Ministry of Communications and Transport
in 1978 and was able to make some progress before he left
public life. When he returned to politics in 1990, he was
put in charge of the Zanzibar's Ministry of Trade and
Industries, a job he said he "hated." In 1995 he was at last
able to head the Communications and Transport Ministry and
start road building. Most of the main land arteries are now
completed, he said, and with the proper repairs they should
be suitable for the next 20-30 years. Zanzibar has ordered
more heavy equipment to keep the momentum. Seaports and
especially the airport were now in Karume's sights for
refurbishment. In that regard, he said he would soon meet
with Parkington of the International Finance Corporation of
the World bank to try to finalize a deal for a new
international airport.


8. (U) Karume said he was the "pioneer" in establishing a
modern telecommunications network for Zanzibar. "Zantel,"
the premier phone and internet service on the archipelago
(and one that is a strong competitor on the mainland as
well),was Karume's "brainchild." Karume said he started it
in 1996 while still a Minster, and today the Government still
has an 18% stake. Karume boasted that Zanzibar has its own
gateway, totally independent of any mainland Tanzanian
entity. International calling costs are lower in Zanzibar,
he claimed. He said a recent study showed a 50% phone
density for Zanzibar which rivals any other place in Africa.


9. (U) On education, Karume claimed that almost 100% of
Zanzibari children get some kind of schooling. Now focus
should be on Secondary Schools. He was working with the
World Bank to build 20 new schools in Zanzibar's 10
districts. He said that key to education in the modern world
was mastery of English and asked if the U.S. could help with
that focus. Given the present shortage of teachers at all
levels, he praised the contributions of Peace Corps
volunteers and said Zanzibar could absorb as many as we were
willing to send.

Karume on Zanzibar's Union with Tanzania
--------------


10. (SBU) "Now that Zanzibar was stepping over he hurdle of
reconciliation," its "national strengths," like unity of
language (Swahili) and religion (Islam) and identity
(Zanzibari) within a diverse and multi-ethnic population
primed it to be the engine of growth and dynamism for the
region, Karume said. In that regard, he said Zanzibar was
probably better off than mainland Tanzania, with its 126
different tribes. He reminded CDA that the U.S. was involved
in Zanzibar long before there ever was a Tanganyika, let
alone a Tanzania. The purpose of the Union was for two
emerging nations to share resources, not to undermine each
other. Therefore, there was natural resentment over any
"institutional disarmament of Zanzibaris."


11. (SBU) CDA suggested that there were some on the mainland
who thought perhaps Zanzibaris wielded more clout in the
Union -- 20% of Parliament seats, for example -- than in
proportion to their population (just over three percent of
Tanzania). Zanzibaris could own real estate in the mainland,
but mainlanders could not purchase property in Zanzibar. On
the land question, Karume pointed to Zanzibar's small size
and high population density: about 1000 sq. miles with about
1.2 million people. There simply was not the same level of
competition for housing and land on the mainland, he
asserted. Karume likened Zanzibar's position vis-a-vis the
mainland with the UK and Europe, recalling that the UK opted
out of Schengen. "Island nations are different," he said.


12. (U) About Zanzibar's political role in Tanzania, Karume
said Zanzibaris fear getting "swallowed up and losing their
cultural identity." "I should know, I'm their President!" he
said. Zanzibar might have greater per capita Parliamentary
representation than mainlanders, but Zanzibar gave up a big
part of its sovereignty in the bargain, he asserted. On
issues like telecoms, Karume said he needed permission from
the capital in Dodoma to have a Zanzibar phone system for
Zanzibaris.


13. (C) Making clear that he was offering his personal
opinion as opposed to stating CCM's party position or that of
the government (NOTE: in addition to being President, Karume
is Zanzibar CCM SYG. END NOTE),Karume said he was
sympathetic to what has been a CUF proposal to have a
three-tier system: a Government of Tanganyika (mainland),a
Government of Zanzibar and a Union Government of Tanzania.
The idea of a political alliance between two nations could be
more transparent under such a system, he said. As it was,
Tanganyika blurs its needs with those of Tanzania, and
Zanzibar suffers as a result. Sure, Karume admitted, such a
structure would run the risk of sub-dividing Tanzania into
still more sub-regions, a possibility that would fly in the
face of national founder Julius Nyerere's determination to
prevent regionalism. However, Karume said that in his
opinion, "regionalism was ok if done well because it brings
development closer to the people. If handled right, the
country won't fall apart," he said.


14. (SBU) Karume concluded the talk by saying that Zanzibar
was different from the mainland and also from other nations
in the region because Zanzibar went through a revolution to
gain its freedom. Zanzibaris had to go through great
hardship to be where they are now. "It takes a great deal for
people to rise up against their own government," he said, "so
no one wants to repeat the same mistakes. The children of
the Revolution think differently than their fathers." There
was hard work ahead, and the current government was trying
its best. Karume concluded by averring that his government
had made "more progress than mistakes."

COMMENT:


15. (SBU) ZAO knows of no observer of Zanzibar politics who
shares President Karume's stated belief that reconciliation
between CUF and CCM, or even between Pemba and Unguja, is a
fait acompli. The recent CCM rallies held in Pemba and in
Unguja and the heated CUF response (Ref B),not to mention
the ongoing malaise in Pemba (ref A),suggest that continued
animosity against Karume and his CCM government is not only
still existent, but may be on the rise. Meanwhile, Karume's
views on the Union reflect mainstream Zanzibari views. In
fact, the "three tier" government idea is part of opposition
CUF's electoral platform, not CCMs. Obtaining more power for
Zanzibar is something that all faction seem to agree on.

ANDRE