BASHAR'S SURPRISE TRIP TO SAUDI ARABIA: SETTING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 000697 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA NSC FOR SHAPIRO/MCDERMOTT PARIS FOR NOBLES LONDON FOR LORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2029 TAGS: PGOV PREL LE IZ SY SUBJECT: BASHAR'S SURPRISE TRIP TO SAUDI ARABIA: SETTING STAGE FOR A DEAL ON LEBANON'S GOVERNMENT? Classified By: CDA Charles Hunter, Reasons 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: President Bashar al-Asad's surprise September 23 trip to attend the opening of the King Abdullah University for Science and Technology (KAUST) resulted from heavy lobbying by Turkey and Qatar, according to Embassy contacts. Asad's Advisor or Media and Political Affairs Bouthaina Shaaban had told journalists days earlier the Syrian President would not be attending the event and had designated the Minister for Higher Education, Ghaith Barakat, to represent him. Asad and King Abdullah reportedly held a two-hour tour d'horizon discussion of regional issues, including but not limited to Lebanon. According to media reports, King Abdullah agreed to visit Damascus in the coming days. Sources here are hearing conflicting messages whether Abdullah's visit is contingent on formation of a government in Lebanon. End Summary. -------------- Turkey Prevails on Asad -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) With little advance media notice, Syrian President Bashar al-Asad traveled September 23 to Jeddah to attend the opening ceremony at KAUST. According to al-Hayat Bureau Chief Ibrahim Hamidi (strictly protect),Asad had resisted pressure from Syrian FM Muallim, Turkish PM Erdogan, and Qatari Emir Sheikh al Hamad al Thani to attend the KAUST ceremony. Erdogan, Hamidi said, had suggested during Asad's mid-September visit to Istanbul the idea of using the KAUST event as a venue to hold a Syrian-Saudi-Turkish-Lebanese meeting on the future of Lebanon. Asad reportedly rejected this idea because he did not want to be perceived as being involved, or blamed for interfering, in Lebanon's internal affairs, commented Hamidi. Asad was instead telling his advisors he had decided not to attend KAUST opening because King Abdullah had not yet reciprocated his visit to Saudi Arabia earlier in the year. Hamidi said Presidential Advisor for Media and Political Affairs Bouthaina Shabaan had told journalists Minister for Higher Education, Ghaith Barakat, would attend the KAUST event. ¶3. (S/NF) A last-ditch message from Erdogan, however, convinced the Syrian President to reconsider, Hamidi maintained. Apparrently, Turkish PM Erdogan pushed Asad to consider the amount of time, money, and effort King Abdullah had personally invested in the KAUST project, arguing the King would view Asad's presence at the opening ceremony as a significant personal gesture. Asad's presence would not only heal personal differences between the two Arab leaders, but it would improve bilateral ties as well as set the stage for a breakthrough in Lebanon's tense discussions over government formation, Erdogan reportedly told Asad. -------------- Asad Focus on Bilateral Ties, Not Lebanon -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) The Editor-in-Chief of Syria's only privately-owned daily, Wadah Abd Rabbo (strictly protect), reported he had heard that Asad's decision to attend had been a surprise to many SARG officials and reflected the Syrian President's desire to address long-standing problems in Syrian-Saudi relations. A decision by Lebanese President Michel Sleiman to travel the UN General Assembly in New York made it easier for Asad to contemplate the trip to Saudi Arabia, as the linkage to Lebanese politics would be less obvious. Asad reportedly met for two hours with the Saudi King and discussed a wide range of regional issues including, but not limited to, government formation in Lebanon. (Note: Asad also reportedly had a brief, four-minute conversation with Lebanese PM Siniora, which was limited to an exchange of DAMASCUS 00000697 002 OF 003 Eid greetings, according to Abd Rabbo.) Hamidi and Abd Rabbo both insisted Asad's gesture produced a positive reaction from King Abdullah, who reportedly accepted Asad's invitation to visit Damascus in the coming days. -------------- Is the Visit Linked to a Lebanese Government? -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) Press reports of King Abdullah's pending visit to Damascus have sparked a flurry of speculation over when such a visit would occur and whether it would be linked to the formation of a Lebanese government. Hamidi claims his sources told him the King's visit would most probably not occur until after there was a new Lebanese government. Citing Lebanese media reports, Hamidi said Saudi Minister of Information and Culture Minister Abdel Aziz Khoja would visit Lebanon soon. Hamidi said the Asad-Abdullah meeting would send a strong signal to Lebanese actors to be more flexible; both March 14 and March 8 would react positively to the meeting without necessarily involving direct intervention by either Syrian or Saudi officials, he maintained. Hamidi reported, however, that Lebanese PM-designate Saad Hariri would probably not be part of a visit by King Abdullah to Damascus. ¶6. (S/NF) By contrast, Abd Rabbo told us (and his newspaper reported September 27) there would be no linkage between the King's visit and the formation of a government in Lebanon. Asad, Abd Rabbo told us, wanted the King's visit to focus on bilateral relations, of which Lebanon represented only one part. According to Abd Rabo, the King accepted Asad's request to focus the King's trip on a broader agenda of bilateral and regional issues. Abd Rabo also reported that King Abdullah had agreed with Asad that all Lebanese parties needed to demonstrate more flexibility in the government formation negotiations. ¶7. (S/NF) Comment: Many Syrians, from plugged-in policy watchers to shopkeepers who closely follow the news, are reacting positively to President Asad's decision to travel to Saudi Arabia in an effort to improve bilateral relations. A random sampling of Embassy contacts credits Asad with pursuing better relations with Saudi Arabia since the April 2009 Arab Economic Forum in Kuwait. Some sources also suggest Asad has put aside personal considerations to heal what many see as an unnatural rift with a country that has strong cultural, religious, and economic ties to Syria. A few observers are even arguing that Asad's decision to travel to Saudi Arabia reflects Turkish influence in addition to Asad's growing maturity as a leader. ¶8. (S/NF) Comment continued: What the Asad trip to Saudi Arabia means for Lebanese-Syrian relations is less clear. We don't know whether King Abdullah conditioned his visit to Damascus on the formation of a Lebanese government. We do know Asad's stated approach to Lebanese politics has thus far called on the Lebanese parties to achieve an agreement on their own. We also have heard that Asad refuses to support or oppose individual candidates for cabinet positions. Asad may be willing to urge Syria's allies to be more flexible, but it would uncharacteristic for him to do so without extracting a price -- perhaps related to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and/or for an explicit expression of Hariri's desire for better relations with Syria. By making a personal gesture to the Saudi King, Asad appears to be betting that engaging the Saudis will result in better Saudi-Syrian bilateral relations without necessarily requiring Syria to push Hizballah or Michel Aoun to soften their demands. If King Abdullah made his visit contingent on the formation of a Lebanese government, the positive buzz resulting from the Asad-Abdullah meeting may be short-lived. On the other hand, Asad's desire for better relations with Saudi Arabia and his DAMASCUS 00000697 003 OF 003 willingness to trust and listen to PM Erdogan may provide important levers to influence Syria not just on the formation of a Lebanese government, but also on how Syria deals with such a government if and when it takes office. HUNTER