KERRY - ASAD: DIVIDING IRAQ AND UNIFYING IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 000158

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2019
TAGS: PREL IZ IR SY
SUBJECT: KERRY - ASAD: DIVIDING IRAQ AND UNIFYING IRAN

Classified By: CDA Maura Connelly for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C/NF) Summary: Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee Senator John Kerry told President Asad that he
believed progress was being made in Iraq and the U.S. wanted
to withdraw its troops as soon as possible. The recent
provincial elections in Iraq had been the first real,
positive sign that Iraq was moving forward and the first
demonstration of the legitimacy of the GOI's authority, Asad
said, but the U.S. should give the Iraqi leadership "more
space" or they will be labelled American puppets. Before the
U.S. leaves Iraq, Asad said, it must ensure that it won't
allow federalism to fragment the country. If Iraq were to
break down into federal states, the Sunni state, Asad
predicted, would be governed by al-Qaeda and the Shi-ite
state by Iran. The Kurds will end up fighting with Turkey,
Iran, and Syria. Syria and Iran see Iraq differently from
each other. Asad advised that the U.S. must view Iran as a
Persian state, more than as a Shi-ite state ) the cultural
identity, he implied, is more important than the religious
identify. "Don't bet on Khatami's candidacy (in Iran's June
presidential elections)," Asad warned. "You can make deals
with Ahmadinejad more (readily) than you can with Khatami . .
. Never mind the rhetoric, Ahmadinejad has political power."
Kerry expressed concern over Iran's continued pursuit of a
nuclear weapons capability and Asad responded by saying there
should be a mechanism for monitoring Iran's nuclear
activities; states do not operate on trust. Asad said it is
necessary to shift discussion from Iran's right to nuclear
technology to means of monitoring its activities. By
attacking Iran's right, Asad said, "you unify Iran." End
Summary.






2. (C) Senator John Kerry emphasized a new U.S. approach to
diplomacy in the Middle East during a February 21 meeting
with Syrian President Bashar al-Asad that lasted more than
two hours. Also attending the meeting were Syrian FM Walid
al-Muallim, Presidential Advisor for Political and Media
Affairs Bouthaina Shaaban, and Syrian Ambassador to the U.S.
Imad Mustafa. Kerry was accompanied by Charge as well as
SFRC staffers Frank Lowenstein and Perry Cammack. This cable
reports on the discussion of Syria's perspective on
developments in Iraq and in Iran. Other issues are reported
septels.

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U.S. Should Give Iraqi Leadership "More Space"
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3. (C/NF) During their February 21 meeting, Senator Kerry
told President Asad that he believed progress was being made
in Iraq and the U.S. wanted to withdraw its troops as soon as
possible. Asad agreed that the key factor in stabilizing
Iraq was the decision of Sunni leaders in Anbar province to
reject al-Qaeda; he believed that the surge of 30,000 U.S.
troops had not been as critical to progress as had the
rejection of al-Qaeda. Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki has moved in
a realistic way on reconciliation, Asad allowed, observing it
was more difficult now to commit "sectarian assassinations."
The recent provincial elections in Iraq had been the first
real, positive sign that Iraq was moving forward and the
first demonstration of the legitimacy of the GOI's authority,
he said; "that's a development that can be built upon."
"Maliki doesn't like us," Asad noted, "he is stubborn but
good, a legitimate leader." Maliki can move forward now with
greater confidence, he said, but the U.S. should give the
Iraqi leadership "more space" or they will be labelled
American puppets. Both Maliki and FM Hoshyar Zebari have
told the Syrians that the U.S. must understand that it can't
keep the Iraqi government under pressure anymore, Asad
confided. FM Muallim added that, when Asad had met with
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, Asad had agreed to help on
Iraqi reconciliation by sending Muallim to Baghdad, followed
later by a visit by SARG PM Muhammad Naji al-Utri.

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Federalism Equals Fragmentation
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4. (C/NF) Asserting that the main power in Iraq is the U.S.,
Asad asked Kerry what was the U.S. vision for Iraq? Syria

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had supported the political process by sending an ambassador
to Baghdad but Syria needed to know what the U.S. planned for
the future. The question, he believed, was not when to leave
Iraq but how ) if there is no political process the
situation in Iraq will only become worse. The U.S. must
leave Iraq in stability so that the Iraqi people have some
appreciation for the U.S. role. "It is not our (Syria's)
goal," he said, for the U.S. to be "humiliated" in Iraq.
President Obama had sent Iraqis an important signal with his
announcement that U.S. troops should withdraw in 18 (sic)
months but, before that happens, the U.S. needs to work on
the divisions among Iraqis who favor either federalism or a
strong central government. In Iraq, federalism would have to
be organized along sectarian and ethnic lines and that would
have negative results. The Sunni state, Asad predicted,
would be governed by al-Qaeda and the Shi-ite state by Iran.
The Kurds will end up fighting with Turkey, Iran, and Syria.
Kerry said he didn't see any way that the Kurds would not
seek to protect the lines of their autonomous territory, a
position that Asad called short-sighted: "They will be
isolated," he said.

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Syria and Iran: Different Views on Iraq
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5. (C/NF) Asked if there were any other way the lines of
federalism could be drawn, Asad mused that SIIC leader
Abdul-Aziz Hakim had favored a secular state and Maliki had
won because he had adopted a position in favor of a unified
Iraq. The problem, he concluded, is with the Kurds. The
main power is in KDP leader Massoud Barzani's hands. Asked
about Iran's intentions, Asad said it was difficult to
answer. The Iranians don't talk about details, only their
"big goals." Syria and Iran see Iraq differently (from each
other),he said, explaining that Syria sees Iraq through an
Arab lens while Iran is focused on the Shi-ite angle.
Shifting gears, Asad advised that the U.S. must view Iran as
a Persian state, more than as a Shi-ite state ) the cultural
identity, he implied, is more important than the religious
identify. "Don't bet on Khatami's candidacy (in Iran's June
presidential elections)," Asad warned. "You can make deals
with Ahmadinejad more (readily) than you can with Khatami . .
. Never mind the rhetoric, Ahmadinejad has political power."

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"You unify Iran"
--------------


6. (C/NF) Kerry expressed concern over Iran's continued
pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability and Asad responded by
saying there should be a mechanism for monitoring Iran's
nuclear activities; states do not operate on trust. Asad
recalled that after French President Nicholas Sarkozy had met
with him in Damascus in September 2008, Asad had met with
Iranian National Security Advisor Said Jallili to convey
Syria's position against WMD proliferation. Jallili had told
Asad, he said, that Iran respects the NPT had had no military
ambitions for its nuclear program. Jallili declared that
Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear program; hence the
"European" three-phase plan that called for suspension of
sanctions in return for suspension of uranium enrichment was
not acceptable. Asad had concluded, he said, that suspension
was not the answer; rather there should be monitoring of
Iran's nuclear program ) a mechanism for observers was
needed. Iran won't stop its program, he said, so it is
necessary to shift discussion from Iran's right to nuclear
technology to means of monitoring its activities. By
attacking Iran's right, Asad said, "you unify Iran." Kerry
asked if Asad believed that Iran would agree to an additional
protocol regarding monitoring but Asad said he didn't know,
he and Jallili had not talked about it.


7. (C/NF) Comment: Asad was uncharacteristically candid in
alluding to his differences with Iran over Iraq and Iran's
nuclear program. After three U.S. codels and a string of
other recent visitors, he may be tiring of defending Iran's
defiance of the IAEA and UNSC. Because of Syria's own
problem with the IAEA, however, he must tread very carefully
when discussing the Iranian issue. On Iraq, Asad probably
thought his remarks were conciliatory ("it is not our goal
for the U.S. to be humiliated in Iraq") and, while his advice
had not been sought, his focus on potential fragmentation
illuminates Syrian anxieties regarding the future of Iraq.
End Comment.

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8. (U) Codel Kerry has cleared this message.
CONNELLY