Senegal's Casamance-Trials and Tribulations

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000896

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SUBJECT: Senegal's Casamance-Trials and Tribulations

DAKAR 00000896 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The troubled Casamance region of Southern Senegal
is facing yet another crisis following the dissolution of Air
Senegal International. Already cut off from the rest of the country
by the Gambia, local tour operators are extremely worried that
without regular flights the upcoming tourist season will be
cancelled, leaving many unemployed. Meanwhile, acts of banditry by
rebels associated with the Mouvement des Forces Democratiques de la
Casamance (MFDC) have seen a recent spike, although the military has
bolstered its presence in response. End Summary.


2. (SBU) According to Tehe Faye, representative of the Ministry of
Tourism in Ziguinchor, since Air Senegal stopped working there has
been a 25 percent drop in hotel occupancy rate in Ziguinchor and in
the tourist zone of Cap Skirring only three hotels are open and none
of them have any guests, "We're preparing for next season, but
frankly we have no idea how that's going to pan out. We are looking
to work with tour operators so that they fly their charter planes
directly to Ziguinchor or to Cap Skirring itself." Faye noted Club
Med is the key holiday resort in the area and that they are planning
to open late this upcoming season, 'If Club Med leaves, we are in
deep trouble. They employ over 200 people from the local economy.
So far, there is no indication that they will leave, but you never
know." Faye went on to say that Minister Karim Wade, whose
portfolio includes Civil Aviation, had been to visit and that he had
promised that a new airline will be up and running by October.
Faye's view mirrored that of Pascal Ehemba who is the owner of
Ziguinchor's best hotel and the President of the Chamber of
Commerce, "This area needs much more investment. Clearly the one
boat (from Dakar) is not enough and we need more flights.
Additionally, I am trying to set up a credit fund to allow people
access to cheap credit."

Is the MFDC Back?
--------------


3. (SBU) Both Faye and Ehemba are worried about a recent spike in
banditry in the region, saying that it compounds the problems that
the region is facing especially in term of presenting the area as a
safe place for tourism. Faye however noted, "While this is bad for
our image, I have been told by some MFDC leaders that the rise in
these attacks is less about economics and more about cracks within
the movement itself whereby some dissidents are trying to establish
themselves. But if we go another year without tourism, who knows
what may happen." Faye acknowledged that the arrival of a new Mayor
from the ruling Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) may bolster
investment in the area and offset some of the effects of the
downturn in tourism as the government opens up the state coffers
which it had kept tightly shut under the previous administration of
Socialist Mayor Robert Sagna.


4. (SBU) This view was confirmed by Mamadou Konte, who is Mayor
Abdoulaye Balde's right hand in Ziguinchor, "We have major plans
both to rehabilitate the city's roads and its sewage and water
systems. Balde (who is also the Secretary-General of the
Presidency) will be here every weekend to oversee the projects and
meet with people." Konte, however, did aver that unsafe roads are
bad in terms of the upcoming planting season, "If the roads are not
safe, then truckers carrying seeds and fertilizers will refuse to
come. Last year we produced 104,000 tons of cereal and had 1800 mm
of rainfall, so we have great hope for a repeat performance this
year. In my view, we not only need to talk to the rebels, but we
need to establish enterprises in their zones so that they have jobs
to go to when they put down their arms. Without jobs, talking is
just that."


5. (SBU) "[President Abdoulaye] Wade is not interested in talking or
resolving our problems. In his view, the fighters should just stop
fighting and talk. He has not only alienated The Gambia and
Guinea-Bissau, but he mistakenly thinks that enough money thrown at
the problem will make it go away," said Abba Diatta, an old school,
dyed-in-the-wool Socialist politician who was former Mayor Sagna's
right hand for 26 years. Diatta was considerably more downbeat than
other local leaders, saying that Wade has a history of reneging when
it comes to the Casamance, "When Wade was a Minister in [former
President Abdou] Diouf's government he promised Abbe Diamacounde's
(The founder of the MFDC) brother that he would grant autonomy if he
ever got elected President. When he came to power, he totally
reversed his position. If there is no resolution to the conflict
soon, I expect that the level of violence will pick up again. The
only reason it hasn't is because local groups comprised of elders,
women, and youth have been constantly engaged to persuade the MFDC
and its various factions to end the violence."

Comment
--------------


6. (SBU) As usual, the Casamance finds itself at a crossroads.
While over the past few months there has been an increase in

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banditry by MFDC-related groups, a bolstered military presence seems
to have stemmed the tide for now. The tourism situation is dire and
until a new airline reconnects Ziguinchor to the rest of the
country, the region will continue to experience economic troubles
and rising unemployment. However, these troubles may be offset by
money coming in the form of new investments by Mayor Balde, who is
eager to prove to both the people of the Casamance and to the
President that the PDS can deliver on its promises and improve the
lives of people. Another factor to watch will be the upcoming
harvest. If the rains are good and the harvest plentiful, then the
government will breathe a considerable sigh of relief. However,
should the opposite be the case, then the region will bear watching
as a poor harvest, a bad economy, and an unengaged government may be
the spark for renewed conflict.
Smith