GUINEA-BISSAU: AMBASSADORS TENTATIVELY AGREE TO SUPPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000787 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/EPS, AF/RSA, IO/UNP, PRM, DRL PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER FBI FOR DAD/OFFICE OF INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS SEAN JOYCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPKO PGOV PREL PINR KDEM PHUM SG SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: AMBASSADORS TENTATIVELY AGREE TO SUPPORT UNSC HYBRID INQUIRY PROPOSAL ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a June 19 informal meeting of representatives of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) members and other representatives of the international community, participants agreed that that the UNSC should support the creation of a "hybrid" commission of inquiry for Guinea-Bissau (GB),in which international technical advisors support the already established Bissau-Guinean national commission of inquiry which is currently investigating the March assassinations of the former president and former armed forces chief of staff. The assembled diplomats also generally supported the notion of a security element for the hybrid commission to protect commission members and witnesses, while stressing the need for consent from the government of Guinea-Bissau (GOGB). Nevertheless, there was broad support for imposing some form of conditionality on the provision of international assistance as an additional means to support a transition to de facto civilian rule and ensure military cooperation in the security sector reform process. END SUMMARY. Failed National Effort Leads to Request for Assistance -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a May 22 letter, Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior asked UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon to deploy a UN-sponsored international commission of inquiry to Guinea-Bissau to take over the investigation into the March assassinations of Armed Forces Chief of Staff General Tagme Na Wai and President Joao Bernardo Vieira. A domestic, inter-ministerial commission began investigating the crimes on March 12, thanks in significant part to technical assistance from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation. However, in May, the head of the commission of inquiry, Attorney General Luis Manuel Cabral, complained publicly that the investigation had stalled due to the military's refusal to cooperate. Cabral also pointedly criticized the Prime Minister for refusing (or being unable) to compel the military to cooperate with the investigation. ¶3. (SBU) On the heels of another round of military extrajudicial killings on June 1 (ref),UN Representative of the Secretary General (RSG) Joseph Mutaboba traveled to New York on June 16 to brief the Secretary General and to prepare for a June 23 briefing of the Security Council to propose, as an alternative to the requested international commission of inquiry, the creation of a hybrid commission through the provision of UN assistance and international experts and technical advisors to aid the national commission of inquiry's moribund investigation. However, the responsibility for the inquiry, Mutoboba and the UN reportedly will insist, must remain with the GOGB. MEETING OF DIPLOMATS IN DAKAR -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On June 19, 2009, Ambassador Bernicat convened in Dakar a meeting of representatives from UN Security Council country members, as well as nations and organizations with an active presence or interest in Guinea-Bissau. The Ambassadors of Burkina Faso, Japan, and Turkey, the Chargs d'Affaires of Austria, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom, political officers from the European Commission (EC) and Russia, as well as a representative from the United Nations Office of West Africa (UNOWA) joined the meeting. (FYI -Portugal, Russia and Spain in addition to the UN are present in Bissau. End FYI) PolCouns, DATT, LEGATT, and PolOff also participated. The Ambassador noted the necessity of ending the long cycle of killing with impunity in Guinea-Bissau to ensure civilian rule and suggested that the international community should support Mutaboba's proposal as well as a possible international security force. The force/presence could ensure the hybrid commission can work in security and increase the possibility of military cooperation in the investigation. This presence could, perhaps be the first step to the establishment of a broader stabilization or intervention in support of security sector reform. Broad Support for Hybrid Commission of Inquiry -------------- ¶5. (SBU) There was general support among the participants for providing international assistance to the national commission of inquiry and the creation of a hybrid commission as long as the GoGB supports the proposal. Some, including the Austrian and U.K. Chargs, argued that an international presence in the inquiry will serve to give it added legitimacy and that it would help to strengthen the national commission's ability to obtain the cooperation of the military in the investigation. The Austrian Charge also argued that protection for the commission as well as for DAKAR 00000787 002 OF 002 witnesses will be necessary. Security for Commission -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Participants were more cautious regarding the possible deployment of an international security element (which could conceivably take any form, from uniformed expert advisors to a formal intervention or stabilization force) for the hybrid commission. The Portuguese Charg expressed support for such a presence, but only with the GOGB's concurrence. This sentiment was echoed by the U.K. Charg, who added that any force would need "complete" Bissau-Guinean agreement, including that of the military, and argued that the objective of an intervention force remains unclear. The Russian political officer added that any force would need consensus, both internationally as well as within Guinea-Bissau. The Japanese Ambassador speculated that the GOGB would not accept an international peacekeeping force but expressed some hope that perhaps pressure at the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) meeting on June 22 could persuade Guinea-Bissau to accept such a force. Everyone agreed that the international community should condition any assistance provided to progress made by the GOGB's commission of inquiry. ¶7. (SBU) Many participants, including the UNOWA Representative, the Turkish Ambassador and Portuguese Charg, expressed concern regarding election and post-election security. The Austrian Charge questioned how free and fair any elections will be in Guinea-Bissau's current state and urged international assurances of protection. The UNOWA Representative added that a new government will only be willing to enact reform if its members feel safe. The Portuguese Charg responded that in return for protection, the GOGB will need to produce tangible outcomes. The Spanish Charge opined that elections will not solve much on their own and that a duly-elected President would need to enact the necessary reforms. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Post recommends against supporting the Prime Minister Gomes' request for the UN to establish an international commission of inquiry, given how time-consuming and costly in nature (as well as the fact it could allow the GOGB to shift the tough responsibility for identifying the assassins away from itself) it is likely to be. The request and the ongoing threat of violence (however well-targeted) offers the international community a perhaps fleeting opportunity to help the government in Bissau take the first significant steps to rein in the military and its actions. As such, the proposed deployment of international advisors may be the best alternative. For the hybrid commission to work, however, Gomes' government must demonstrate the necessary courage and political will to overcome a military reluctant to cooperate. They will need the backing of the international community to do so. END COMMENT. BERNICAT