SENEGAL: TROUBLES AHEAD IN 2009? CORRECTED VERSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 000512

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SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE AND INR/AA
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINS SOCI ECON PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: TROUBLES AHEAD IN 2009? CORRECTED VERSION

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY A/DCM Kevin J. Mullally REASONS 1.4 (B) AN
D (D).


1. (C) Summary: Laye Bamba Diallo, Editor of the Nouvelle
Horizon weekly and Omar Ndiaye, an old Embassy contact and
the editor of the Temoin weekly, told poloff that they are
both worried about the future for Senegal, characterizing the
outlook as bleak. They believe that President Abdoulaye Wade
has learned nothing from his March 22 local election defeat
and that the plan to have his son Karim succeed him is still
very much alive. End Summary


2. (C) With many people predicting a government reshuffle
right after Senegal,s April 4 Independence Day, questions
now abound as to why President Wade has not acted as
predicted. According to Ndiaye, the President is hesitant
because he is of two minds, &I don,t think that he has
abandoned the whole Karim succession project. But now the
question is, in what capacity? Does Karim join the Cabinet
as a Minister, and if so which Ministry? Also I had heard
from a contact that Wade is trying to attract leading
opposition figures to join his Cabinet. So at the moment
it,s all in flux.8 Diallo agreed adding, &Whatever the
President decides will give us an idea of where he is going.
I don,t believe that he has learned anything from the
election. Also to put things in perspective, his coalition
did not fare as badly as the papers reported. Sure they lost
some big cities and that is a blow for him, but that being
said they won the whole of the south, many regional councils
and the popular vote.8

Monarchic Tendencies
--------------


3. (C) Both editors were pessimistic that after all this time
and effort that President Wade would be willing to make the
changes necessary to meet the needs of a frustrated populace,
&Wade and his family are like monarchs flying around in
their private jets, surrounded by courtiers8 said Ndiaye.
He went on, &this kind of insouciance about people,s
everyday sufferings will turn violent if the President does
not do something to solve the country,s economic woes. Wade
may not even finish this year in office.8 Diallo noted that
his magazine would be publishing an investigative piece
chronicling how the government spent CFA 37 billion (USD 75.2
million) in 2008 just to pay the phone bills of all those
government employees, their families and cronies who have
government owned cell phones and who spend all their time
making international calls. Diallo then went on to describe
Wade as a dictator of another era, "all his contemporaries
finished their rules in the 80,s when in most African
countries the one-party system ended. He came into power
very late and his style of governing is from another era. I
expect that if the Karim plan doesn,t work, he is deluded
enough to run in 2012."


4. (C) In a separate meeting with Khaliffa Sall, who became
the new Mayor of Dakar on April 18, he told us that he
expects that Wade will be combative and make life extremely
difficult for him, "Wade is a fighter; he knows nothing of
co-habitation. We served together when we were both
Ministers in (former President) Diouf's cabinet and I expect
nothing less from him. His choices are limited now in terms
of what he can do next. (Former Prime Minister) Idrissa Seck
is really his ace in the hole."

Comment
--------------


5. (C) The fact that the President has yet to enact a
reshuffle seems to indicate that the editors are correct in
their contention that the President has, for once, not quite
worked out what he is going to do next. Prior to the
elections he had threatened that anybody who lost in their
local districts would have to face the music. However, in a
recent reconciliation meeting with Idrissa Seck's coalition,
the President's Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) was
represented by the very architects of his SOPI coalition's
defeat, indicating that he is not quite ready to ditch the
old guard in favor of restructuring his party. Furthermore,
this reluctance to act strengthens the argument that he is
still in the "Karim succession" mindset. This argument may
be buttressed with the facts that, first, the PDS is blaming
their losses not on popular discontent but on internal
divisions, and second, the Minister of Interior held a widely
publicized press conference where he outlined in detail why
the SOPI coalition had actually won the elections
comfortably. End Comment
BERNICAT