C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000470

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PU XY
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: PRIME MINISTER DEFENDS MILITARY

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Classified By: Ambassador Marcia S. Bernicat for reasons 1.5 B/D.


1. (C) Summary: On April 2, PolCouns met with Prime Minister
Carlos Gomes Junior to deliver a letter from the Ambassador
requesting clarification regarding the status of Navy Captain
Jose Zamora Induta, the de facto head of the armed forces of
Guinea-Bissau. In the letter, the U.S. also expressed
concern regarding the recent political violence carried out
by members of the military against critics of the armed
forces and the government, as well as the military's failure
to cooperate with the inter-ministerial commission
established to investigate the assassinations of former
President Bernardo Vieira and former Chief of Staff of the
Armed Forces General Batista Tagme Na Wai. The Prime
Minister insisted that the country's constitution and laws
regarding the nomination of the armed forces chief of staff
were being respected and defended the military's actions in
the recent arrest of the defense attorney of the former chief
of staff of the Navy. He questioned the veracity of reports
that members of the armed forces had beaten the audit court
chief justice, noting that all of Guinea-Bissau's security
forces use the same uniform and suggesting that someone is
conducting a campaign to denigrate the military. Gomes said
he was not in favor of a stabilization force, but ws not
categorically opposed. The Attorney Genera has called on
the international community to pu pressure on the government
to rein in the armedforces. End summary.

Gomes: The Constitution Is Being Respected
--------------


3. (C) PolCouns conveyed USG concern regarding the apparent
constitutional and legal violations of Induta's creation of
an emergency military commission following the death of Na
Wai and his subsequent nomination to be chief of the armed
forces. Gomes denied that there was anything
unconstitutional or improper in the nomination of Induta and
insisted that the military is a victim of an active campaign
to denigrate it and its members. He was at pains to explain
how the proper

procedure for nominating the armed forces
chief of staff had been followed, providing PolCouns with
copies of the official correspondence between the Ministry of
Defense, the Prime Minister's Office, and that of the Interim
President, all the while failing to acknowledge that Vieira
had already designated a successor to Tagme Na Wai in the
hours between the general's and former president,s death.
Gomes described the situation as sensitive. He said it was
necessary to be "prudent" and described himself as
"respecting the will of the military." He noted that the
military leaders had announced more than once that the armed
forces do not want to take power. As such, his government
officially submitted to the interim president the nomination
of Induta to be chief of staff of the armed forces and
Colonel Antonio Indjai to be the vice chief of staff. When
questioned about the appropriateness of formally nominating
Indjai to be the vice chief of staff given that his unit, the
Northern Zone battalion based in Mansoa, is widely alleged to
be responsible for assassinating Vieira, Gomes replied that
Indjai could not be "condemned" while there was an ongoing
investigation.

Gomes Defends Military's Actions
--------------


4. (C) With regard to the arrest of Pedro Infanda, the
attorney of ex-Admiral Bubo Na Tchuta, the former chief of
the naval staff, Gomes defended the military's actions,
saying Infanda's behavior had been of concern to
Bissau-Guinean intelligence even before the deaths of Vieira
and Na Wai. Gomes questioned why Infanda had been
distributing t-shirts with the photo of Na Tchuta and
announcing the imminent return of the ex-admiral. "This was
not the behavior of an attorney," he said. Gomes said
Infanda was guilty of incitement and asked, "Why does Na
Tchuta want to return? For what purpose?" Because of this,
the armed forces took &preventive measures8 while keeping
the attorney general's office informed. The Prime Minister
did not explain on what authority the military was allowed to
arrest someone. As for the beating of Francisco Fadul, the
chief justice of the audit court, Gomes suggested that the
assailants may not have been members of the armed forces,
noting that all of the security forces in Guinea-Bissau use
the same uniforms, again suggesting that someone is trying to
frame the military. He went on to question the motives and
actions of Fadul, noting that the former prime minister
currently serves as the head of the Party for Development,
Democracy and Citizenship (PADEC), which Gomes suggested was

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incompatible with his role as the audit court chief justice.

Not Supportive of Stabilization Force
--------------


5. (C) Asked about the Economic Community of West African
States (ECOWAS) proposal to send a stabilization force to
Guinea-Bissau, Gomes said he was not in favor of the idea
because such a force could be the source of a "disturbance."
Instead, he noted that Induta had proposed recruiting 1,000
more troops for the armed forces, suggesting that these new
recruits could provide the necessary security to ensure the
stability of the country. However, he hedged his bets by
saying that if such a force were to be sent, it would need to
be done with the approval of the African Union (AU) and the
United Nations (UN) General Assembly (sic). (Comment: There
would be no way to recruit, train and deploy ) much less pay
for ) 1,000 additional troops in time for the June 28
elections. Gomes, suggestion, however, provides the donor
community a stronger justification for countering Gomes, and
Induta,s reluctance to accept ECOWAS,. End Comment)

Attorney General Calls on Diplomats to Pressure Government
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6. (C) On April 2, Attorney General Louis Manuel Cabral
convoked the diplomatic corps to protest the military's
recent actions and to call on the international community to
put pressure on the government to rein in the armed forces.
The AG criticized the parallel investigation being conducted
by a military commission into the assassination of Na Wai.
He said he was completely unaware of the details of its
mandate or its activities and argued that the
inter-ministerial commission of inquiry should take
precedence. In a separate conversation with PolCouns, the AG
complained about the failure of the military to cooperate
with the inter-ministerial commission. For example, the
armed forces have refused to provide the inter-ministerial
commission investigators with the names of the soldiers who
were members of Vieira's protection detail the day he was
assassinated. The AG told PolCouns he still feels
personnally at risk in the current environment.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) There is an active debate among local observers
regarding the relationships between Gomes, Induta and the
military: is the Prime Minister a hostage or an accomplice?
The truth seems to be that he is a bit of both. While the
Prime Minister's lack of enthusiasm for a stabilization force
seems to suggest that Gomes believes the situation is under
control, given what happened to Vieira and Na Wai it is
entirely possible that Gomes believes it wiser to simply
accept what he knows is a fait accompli with regard to the
military maintaining a dominant role in governance. It is
also clear that Gomes and Induta have a close political
relationship; Induta campaigned with Gomes during the last
elections. The Prime Minister, who has always lacked a
powerbase in the military, no doubt sees Induta's power grab
within the military hierarchy as a political necessity.
However, Induta's fractious grip on the military leaves this
an imperfect strategy that could easily backfire if another
faction were to assert itself.


8. (C) While it would be easy to dismiss these latest
developments as proof the situation in Guinea-Bissau has not
-- and cannot )- change for the better, Post strongly
believes that the inherent instability created by Induta and
Gomes, incomplete control actually preserves, for now, the
opportunity to bring about necessary reforms in governance
and the military. Post agrees with most knowledgeable local
observers that Gomes is still susceptible to influence from
donor countries. The same may/may be true of Induta. The
USG and European Union countries have the best opportunity in
years to provoke necessary reforms by supporting two African
initiatives currently underway: the April 20 meeting in Cape
Verde and supporting the ECOWAS initiative to put a force
(whether observer, technical or stabilizing in nature) on the
ground in Guinea-Bissau, a proposal which is supported by the
Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP). These
efforts offer the best way forward to develop a a coherent
and coordinated approach to address the growing threat
Guinea-Bissau poses to regional stability and our collective
national interests. End Comment.
BERNICAT