GUINEA-BISSAU: PRIME MINISTER DEFENDS MILITARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000470 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA AND INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PU XY SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: PRIME MINISTER DEFENDS MILITARY DAKAR 00000470 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Marcia S. Bernicat for reasons 1.5 B/D. ¶1. (C) Summary: On April 2, PolCouns met with Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior to deliver a letter from the Ambassador requesting clarification regarding the status of Navy Captain Jose Zamora Induta, the de facto head of the armed forces of Guinea-Bissau. In the letter, the U.S. also expressed concern regarding the recent political violence carried out by members of the military against critics of the armed forces and the government, as well as the military's failure to cooperate with the inter-ministerial commission established to investigate the assassinations of former President Bernardo Vieira and former Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces General Batista Tagme Na Wai. The Prime Minister insisted that the country's constitution and laws regarding the nomination of the armed forces chief of staff were being respected and defended the military's actions in the recent arrest of the defense attorney of the former chief of staff of the Navy. He questioned the veracity of reports that members of the armed forces had beaten the audit court chief justice, noting that all of Guinea-Bissau's security forces use the same uniform and suggesting that someone is conducting a campaign to denigrate the military. Gomes said he was not in favor of a stabilization force, but ws not categorically opposed. The Attorney Genera has called on the international community to pu pressure on the government to rein in the armedforces. End summary. Gomes: The Constitution Is Being Respected -------------- ¶3. (C) PolCouns conveyed USG concern regarding the apparent constitutional and legal violations of Induta's creation of an emergency military commission following the death of Na Wai and his subsequent nomination to be chief of the armed forces. Gomes denied that there was anything unconstitutional or improper in the nomination of Induta and insisted that the military is a victim of an active campaign to denigrate it and its members. He was at pains to explain how the proper procedure for nominating the armed forces chief of staff had been followed, providing PolCouns with copies of the official correspondence between the Ministry of Defense, the Prime Minister's Office, and that of the Interim President, all the while failing to acknowledge that Vieira had already designated a successor to Tagme Na Wai in the hours between the general's and former president,s death. Gomes described the situation as sensitive. He said it was necessary to be "prudent" and described himself as "respecting the will of the military." He noted that the military leaders had announced more than once that the armed forces do not want to take power. As such, his government officially submitted to the interim president the nomination of Induta to be chief of staff of the armed forces and Colonel Antonio Indjai to be the vice chief of staff. When questioned about the appropriateness of formally nominating Indjai to be the vice chief of staff given that his unit, the Northern Zone battalion based in Mansoa, is widely alleged to be responsible for assassinating Vieira, Gomes replied that Indjai could not be "condemned" while there was an ongoing investigation. Gomes Defends Military's Actions -------------- ¶4. (C) With regard to the arrest of Pedro Infanda, the attorney of ex-Admiral Bubo Na Tchuta, the former chief of the naval staff, Gomes defended the military's actions, saying Infanda's behavior had been of concern to Bissau-Guinean intelligence even before the deaths of Vieira and Na Wai. Gomes questioned why Infanda had been distributing t-shirts with the photo of Na Tchuta and announcing the imminent return of the ex-admiral. "This was not the behavior of an attorney," he said. Gomes said Infanda was guilty of incitement and asked, "Why does Na Tchuta want to return? For what purpose?" Because of this, the armed forces took &preventive measures8 while keeping the attorney general's office informed. The Prime Minister did not explain on what authority the military was allowed to arrest someone. As for the beating of Francisco Fadul, the chief justice of the audit court, Gomes suggested that the assailants may not have been members of the armed forces, noting that all of the security forces in Guinea-Bissau use the same uniforms, again suggesting that someone is trying to frame the military. He went on to question the motives and actions of Fadul, noting that the former prime minister currently serves as the head of the Party for Development, Democracy and Citizenship (PADEC),which Gomes suggested was DAKAR 00000470 002.2 OF 002 incompatible with his role as the audit court chief justice. Not Supportive of Stabilization Force -------------- ¶5. (C) Asked about the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) proposal to send a stabilization force to Guinea-Bissau, Gomes said he was not in favor of the idea because such a force could be the source of a "disturbance." Instead, he noted that Induta had proposed recruiting 1,000 more troops for the armed forces, suggesting that these new recruits could provide the necessary security to ensure the stability of the country. However, he hedged his bets by saying that if such a force were to be sent, it would need to be done with the approval of the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) General Assembly (sic). (Comment: There would be no way to recruit, train and deploy ) much less pay for ) 1,000 additional troops in time for the June 28 elections. Gomes, suggestion, however, provides the donor community a stronger justification for countering Gomes, and Induta,s reluctance to accept ECOWAS,. End Comment) Attorney General Calls on Diplomats to Pressure Government -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) On April 2, Attorney General Louis Manuel Cabral convoked the diplomatic corps to protest the military's recent actions and to call on the international community to put pressure on the government to rein in the armed forces. The AG criticized the parallel investigation being conducted by a military commission into the assassination of Na Wai. He said he was completely unaware of the details of its mandate or its activities and argued that the inter-ministerial commission of inquiry should take precedence. In a separate conversation with PolCouns, the AG complained about the failure of the military to cooperate with the inter-ministerial commission. For example, the armed forces have refused to provide the inter-ministerial commission investigators with the names of the soldiers who were members of Vieira's protection detail the day he was assassinated. The AG told PolCouns he still feels personnally at risk in the current environment. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) There is an active debate among local observers regarding the relationships between Gomes, Induta and the military: is the Prime Minister a hostage or an accomplice? The truth seems to be that he is a bit of both. While the Prime Minister's lack of enthusiasm for a stabilization force seems to suggest that Gomes believes the situation is under control, given what happened to Vieira and Na Wai it is entirely possible that Gomes believes it wiser to simply accept what he knows is a fait accompli with regard to the military maintaining a dominant role in governance. It is also clear that Gomes and Induta have a close political relationship; Induta campaigned with Gomes during the last elections. The Prime Minister, who has always lacked a powerbase in the military, no doubt sees Induta's power grab within the military hierarchy as a political necessity. However, Induta's fractious grip on the military leaves this an imperfect strategy that could easily backfire if another faction were to assert itself. ¶8. (C) While it would be easy to dismiss these latest developments as proof the situation in Guinea-Bissau has not -- and cannot )- change for the better, Post strongly believes that the inherent instability created by Induta and Gomes, incomplete control actually preserves, for now, the opportunity to bring about necessary reforms in governance and the military. Post agrees with most knowledgeable local observers that Gomes is still susceptible to influence from donor countries. The same may/may be true of Induta. The USG and European Union countries have the best opportunity in years to provoke necessary reforms by supporting two African initiatives currently underway: the April 20 meeting in Cape Verde and supporting the ECOWAS initiative to put a force (whether observer, technical or stabilizing in nature) on the ground in Guinea-Bissau, a proposal which is supported by the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP). These efforts offer the best way forward to develop a a coherent and coordinated approach to address the growing threat Guinea-Bissau poses to regional stability and our collective national interests. End Comment. BERNICAT