SENEGAL: Local Election Campaigning Heats Up

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000339

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SUBJECT: SENEGAL: Local Election Campaigning Heats Up

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1. (SBU) Summary: In the run up to the March 2009 local elections,
Poloff and Pol Assistant travelled to Kebemer, Louga and Saint Louis
to observe various candidates on the campaign trail. The stakes are
high for both the governing and opposition coalitions as these
elections will define where these groups go from here until
presidential elections slated for 2012, increasing or decreasing the
President's ability to manage his succession. The opposition is
accusing the governing coalition of massive fraud and vote buying.
The President is violating election rules by campaigning
(euphemistically dubbed an "economic tour") for his coalition's
local candidates. He has encountered hostile, rock throwing crowds
in several places. The opposition has promised to respond harshly,
including through violence, to any attempts at fraud. End summary.
Note. This cable reports information gathered prior to the March 15
local elections. The results are being tabulated and have not been
reported as of the writing of this message. End Note.

St Louis - Action Aplenty
--------------

2. (SBU) Campaigning in St Louis is going full steam ahead with
candidates on the streets from morning until midnight and money
being spent aplenty in this key battleground city. Pitted against
one another are the governing SOPI ("Change" in Wolof) coalition
lead by incumbent Mayor, Minister of Decentralization Ousmane
Masseck Ndiaye who has the support of four Ministers on his party's
list; the Benno coalition led by the dynamic parliamentarian and IV
alum Cheikh Bamba Dieye; and Ahmath Fall Braya. Braya is a deputy
from the governing Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) who set up his
own list after he was not placed high enough in SOPI's list. Like
Bamba Dieye, Braya is a local boy who came up through his party's
ranks. A Braya victory can be put in SOPI's win column.


3. (SBU) According to St Louis 1st Deputy Mayor, Ayda Mbaye, who is
a member of the opposition Democratic League (LD) and third on
Benno's proportional list, the PDS is spending an enormous amount of
money to win the election. She said, "In my neighborhood of Bango
they are paying between CFA 50,000 (USD 100) to CFA 100,000 (USD
200) to families." However, she claimed attempts to buy voters will
not succeed because people have told her they intend to take the
money but still vote for Mbaye.


4. (SBU) According to Mbaye, "Ousmane does not dare go [into her
neighborhood] himself. They are not even trying to campaign on his
achievements because he was never here and he has none. Half the
projects he claims he has done have not even been completed and he
knows I know this because I ran the city while he spent all his time
in Dakar. That's why he refuses to debate me in an open forum."
She continued, "Ousmane Ngom (the Minister of Mines),had to come up
from Dakar to help the campaign because they are doing so badly
here. Awa Ndiaye (the Minister for Families) is here all the time,
and she's having problems in her own district." According to Mbaye,
Minister Ngom has been a city counselor for 12 years but has not
attended one meeting of the council.
(Note: In 2002 the LD and the PDS were coalition partners, before LD
leader Abdoulaye Bathilly fell out with President Abdoulaye Wade.
It was Mbaye's delivery of her neighborhood that allowed SOPI to
win, paving the way for Ousmane Masseck Ndiaye to become Mayor of St
Louis. End Note)


5. (SBU) Cheikh Bamba Dieye said that if the elections are held in a
free and fair manner he should become the next Mayor of St Louis
but, "They're bribing everybody with money, food, land, whatever you
can think of. Despite that, I think we have a really good shot
here. Our informal polling indicates that SOPI is running in third
place behind us and Braya." During a campaign tour at a local fish
market, Poloff observed that Dieye is an enthusiastic campaigner and
that citizens were very excited to hear what he had to say. A
female fish vendor reflected the general reception he got by telling
him, "I like the fact that you care to come and listen to us; the
others drive by without deigning to stop or say hi." Dieye was
followed by a large retinue and loud music, creating a party
atmosphere that got the crowds going. In short speeches he attacked
the Mayor for doing nothing and showed his family ties in Saint
Louis, "As the son of Ablaye Dieye (Note: A well-known local
politician. End Note),you are putting your future in the hands of
someone you know." He went on to use Koranic verses to show that he
is religious and well-versed in Muslim studies, which is still a
plus in Saint Louis where a traditional Islamic education is highly
valued.


6. (SBU) In contrast to Dieye's campaign, the SOPI headquarters
looked forlorn. Poloff was invited to join Mayor Ndiaye and
Minister Awa Ndiaye to observe a strategy session. During this
session both Ministers looked bored while supporters complained that
neither leaders had visited their districts and that they did not
have enough money to buy T-shirts and posters. When Mayor Ndiaye
learned from Poloff that Benno's Dieye had received a tumultuous
welcome at a local market he told an aide, in Wolof, that he too
wanted to go to a market immediately. In response the aide seemed

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to balk at the idea of doing such an event without ample
preparation.

Kebemer - Lackluster
--------------


7. (SBU) Campaigning in President Abdoulaye Wade's hometown of
Kebemer was decidedly lackluster as the opposition has virtually
ceded this city to SOPI. The Mayor of the city is the spritely 83
year old Ali Kebe, a classmate of Wade's whom the President imposed
upon the city. The only interesting aspect of this election is
whether or not a younger generation of local politicians, led by
deputy Mayor and former IV alum Kalipha Mboup, can persuade Kebe to
step aside to allow Mboup to succeed him.


8. (SBU) During a campaign tour Mboup was widely recognized and
showed a solid grasp of pressing local issues while touting a plan
to create city-wide "citizen's councils" to boost the interaction
between citizens and the municipality. In answer to a pointed
question by a young man about jobs Mboup said, "I'm not here to
offer you jobs. If anybody comes here and tells you that the Mayor
can give you jobs they're lying. The responsibility of the
municipality is to create the environment to attract investments
that create jobs, not to give people jobs that we don't have."
Mboup confided that they had received very little money to campaign
with and that overall budget support from the state to local
municipalities had been slashed from CFA 8 billon in 2008 to CFA 6
billion in 2009. This lack of financing was clearly visible
throughout the city as there was not one single piece of campaign
paraphernalia to be seen anywhere.

Louga - Where is SOPI?
--------------


9. (SBU) Louga, the hometown of former President Abdou Diouf, has
long been a thorn in the side of current President Wade. The
opposition there is led by the fierce Aminata Mbengue Ndiaye who is
also the leader of the Socialist Party's Women's group. Mbengue is
personally financing the opposition Benno Siggil Senegal's campaign
in Louga and is in total control of the twenty or so opposition
parties that make up her motley coalition. Despite running a
low-key campaign, she is confident of victory but is clearly worried
that SOPI will resort to nefarious maneuvers to steal the election.
According to her, young people have been persuaded to sell their
electoral cards for around CFA 5000 (USD 10) while SOPI is going
around delivering cooking oil, rice and other quotidian staples to
buy people's votes. One of Mbengue's colleagues claimed, "We have
infiltrated SOPI and there are areas where they will not set foot
because they know we will be on the lookout, as a result they will
target areas where people are less determined to protect their
votes."

Red Flags for the President
--------------


10. (SBU) For his part, President Wade is on a thinly disguised
campaign tour dubiously dubbed as an "economic tour" of the country.
In many places he has been met by red flag waving (a sign of
discontent in Senegal) and stone-throwing citizens who are taking
their pent up frustrations out on him. In Podor, Diourbel, Fatick,
Niakhar, Bambey, Kaffrine and the suburbs of Dakar his motorcade has
been stoned, resulting in broken windows and many a hasty departure
by the Presidential motorcade. During a stop in St Louis he did no
public campaigning, instead preferring to stay ensconced in his
hotel meeting with local leaders.

Comment
--------------


10. (SBU) Despite being local, the stakes of these elections have
national implications for both coalitions. If SOPI were to lose
significant ground, Wade's plan to manage his succession becomes
that much harder as the opposition will present any loss as a
reflection of the president's unpopularity. For Benno, this is a
major opportunity to show that they are a legitimate opposition with
political muscle. Meanwhile, individual battles up and down the
country such as the one in St Louis make this election much more
intriguing, especially in light of Wade's threat that whoever loses
in his coalition will be at the sharp end of a political guillotine.
Overarching these calculations are the twin specters of fraud and
money. Clearly, SOPI is hoping that it can buy victory while Benno
has promised a harsh and violent response to any inklings of fraud.
End comment.