SENEGAL: MORE INSIGHTS FROM PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAKAR 000289 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/RSA, AF/EPS, AF/W, NEA/IR E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2029 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KCOR KDEM PINR GV MR IR SG SUBJECT: SENEGAL: MORE INSIGHTS FROM PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR REF: A. A) 08 DAKAR 825 ¶B. B) DAKAR 239 (NOTAL) DAKAR 00000289 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION JAY T. SMITH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: (SBU) Minister Councilor at the Presidency and Financial Advisor to President Wade, Habib Mbaye (protect),recently shared new insights into the policy world of President Wade. Mbaye is in a new role where he is supposed to coordinate the inter-agency, inter-ministerial efforts to support Wade's big schemes, and yet much of the work has yet to get off the ground. On other projects that are controlled by Karim Wade, Mbaye purposely stays out of the way. Wade has outmaneuvered Idrissa Seck and Macky Sall in the run-up to local elections and Karim will likely end up being selected as the Mayor of Dakar. President Wade supported the coups in Mauritania and Guinea because he is scared of collusion with Senegal's armed forces. Wade advised Iran's president to "work with the U.S." Wade is a "good man" who has surrounded himself with "bad people." End Summary. PRESIDENT WADE'S GRAND PROJECTS -------------- ¶2. (C) During a recent conversation with Econ Counselor, long-time financial advisor to President Wade, Habib Mbaye provided additional insight into the priorities and policy-making apparatus of Senegal's increasingly controlling Presidency (Ref A). Mbaye said that President Wade had recently named him to head up a new office in the Presidency as the Coordinator of the Office for Implementing the Engagements of the President of the Republic. In this role, Mbaye apparently has considerable sway over the line ministers to make sure their priorities are to support the President's schemes. ¶3. (C) Despite his presumed role in assuring the ideas become reality, even Mbaye seemed confused by the President's New Year's decree about pursuing new "Grand Projects." He defined the President's ideas as "projects" when they are still in the planning stage, but "travaux" (works) when they are actually being implemented. In Mbaye's mind, almost everything is still a project, including the new airport, the special economic zone, the port of the future, and the city of the future. He gave only a half-hearted endorsement of the Dakar-Diamniadio toll road as "travaux" and believes it's really still in the project phase since he's not sure it will be completed. Mbaye agreed that it was very much a missed opportunity for Senegal when it withdrew from discussions with the MCC on funding the toll toad. He said it was Aminata Niane, the head of Senegal's investment promotion agency (and a close ally of Karim Wade),who stopped the MCC's participation because she didn't want to be under the scrutiny of accountability requirements. For the new airport, he wasn't sure that any work was being done (though he admitted that he had not visited the site). He added that, regardless of his title, since the airport is one of the projects promoted by Karim Wade he cannot ask questions about its progress or implementation. ¶4. (C) When asked about the President's new Grand Projects to improve Dakar's infrastructure and make jobs for the youth in urban centers, Mbaye scoffed at the idea, saying it is another politically motivated idea from Karim. He added, sensibly, that the government first needs to create jobs in the rural communities because if it only creates jobs in Dakar, all the youth from the countryside will descend on Dakar in search of work. ¶5. (C) Mbaye was aware of the recent investment conference (Ref B) but scoffed at the idea that Senegal had, or would, change its law to allow public pension funds to be invested outside the country. According to Mbaye, what Wade wants is for the law to change so that the pension funds can be "invested" in domestic infrastructure projects. He said the conference was all about trying to secure new investment in Senegal, in particular for Wade's personal priorities. POLITICAL MANEUVERING AND THE LOCAL ELECTIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) Mbaye claimed that the recent efforts to discredit DAKAR 00000289 002.2 OF 004 former Prime Minister and President of the National Assembly Macky Sall were designed to keep Sall from influencing the March 22 local elections or gaining momentum as a potential future presidential candidate. Mbaye stated that the Minister of Interior's accusations made against Sall for laundering funds received from Gabonese President Omar Bongo of Gabon were a political ploy. According to Mbaye, there is, indeed, a letter from Sall to Bongo asking for "assistance" and apparently Bongo had previously provided Sall with some money, though Mbaye did not think it was a large amount. Mbaye said that Sall should have known that it was improper for somebody "outside of the government" to receive money from foreign heads of state (though he added that it is not uncommon, and conceded that Wade had benefited from the same type of funding when he was in the opposition). ¶7. (C) There was no real money laundering case, Mbaye admitted, but that this was an easy tool for the government to use. He claimed that there is no law on the books prohibiting officials from receiving money from foreign governments. Mbaye thought that "for now" the goal was just to scare Sall, and that it would be unlikely for him to be put on trial or go to jail. (Note: the money laundering charges against Sall were dismissed on February 26. End note.) In Mbaye's opinion, if the government wanted to, however, it would be easy for inspectors to make a corruption case against Sall since he's spent so much time in business and government. ¶8. (C) Regarding Idrissa Seck, Mbaye claimed that "the President is very clever," and brought Seck into the ruling PDS party, but with no intention of allowing Seck's people to be added to the top of PDS electoral lists. In addition, the government specifically manipulated the electoral situation in Thies in order to keep Seck from regaining the mayoralty by dividing the city into four communes who will elect local officials. Seck is not running for a commune and would need those four Mayors and the Municipal Counselors to in turn vote him Mayor of Thies. Mbaye thinks this is unlikely to happen. In Mbaye's opinion, Seck's near-term goal is to change the constitution to create a Vice President position, which Seck believes Wade will give to him (though that is unlikely if he is not an elected official). Mbaye claimed that the initial falling-out between Wade and Seck happened when Seck was Prime Minister and stole Wade's medical records to assess if he was healthy enough to run for a second term. ¶9. (C) In Mbaye's mind, Karim Wade will likely gain the Mayoralty of Dakar. Mbaye himself is apparently at the top of the PDS's list for Mayor of the Dakar's Point E/Fann Residence neighborhood and he is fairly confident that he will win. To do so, Mbaye admitted he will have to spend a lot of money and "secure" the blessing of the most important local Marabout, Mbacke Mbacke, whom Mbaye also put on the electoral list. Karim Wade lives in Point E, but he is not running for that or any commune. Instead, he is simply on the proportional list. Mbaye explained that after the 19 commune chiefs are elected (via votes for the party) they then elect the Mayor of Dakar, presumably Karim. Mbaye said that last year he thought Karim would sit out one more presidential cycle before entering politics, but now Mbaye thinks it is clear that Karim wants to be Senegal's next President. ¶10. (C) Mbaye justified the complicated election process, by noting that the second list permits the winner to bring more party loyalists into the well-paying local government advisor jobs. Mbaye believes that countrywide the ruling PDS party should win a minimum of 60 percent of the local positions. At the same time, the PDS is worried because the opposition has to make a big push now or it will be completely ruined. ¶11. (C) According to Mbaye, there will definitely be a government reshuffle after the local elections, including a new Prime Minister. Mbaye added that he personally likes Prime Minister Soumare and thinks he's doing a good job. Mbaye believes that President Wade is "comfortable" with a technocrat as PM because the previous two (Seck and Sall, who were concurrently the number two official in the PDS) "let the power go to their heads and started scheming to on how to DAKAR 00000289 003.2 OF 004 replace Wade." At the same time, Mbaye thinks that Finance Minister Aboulaye Diop is "trying to make Soumare look bad" because Diop wants the job. ¶12. (C) In Mbaye's opinion, the Mouride leadership remains central to Wade's political power and Wade maintains good relations with the Khalife-general. At the same time, the current Khalife-general, Serigne Bara Mbacke, is apparently open to entreaties from Seck and Sall and maybe others. The previous Khalife made clear that Wade was "his guy," in Mbaye's words. Mbaye recounted how, in late January, Sall had a secret meeting with the Khalife-generale, but President Wade learned about the meeting because he has "his guy" planted in the Khalife's entourage. SENEGAL'S EXTERNAL RELATIONS: FEAR OF COUPS; IRAN -------------- -------------- ¶13. (C) When asked about President Wade's responses to the coups in Mauritania and Guinea, Mbaye replied that in both cases, Wade "hates" the coups and is pushing for elections and a return to civilian control. However, Wade is also "scared." Wade sees Senegal, and himself, completely surrounded by military governments, and "he knows" that some of those militaries are trying to convince Senegal's armed forces to take power. Therefore, Wade is trying to maintain good relations with these new military leaders in order to "cut" their ties with Senegal's military. ¶14. (C) Mbaye noted that he traveled with Wade to Tehran and Qatar in January; he heard Wade tell Iran's President to take this opportunity to improve relations with the U.S. and that he (Wade) was ready to help. According to Mbaye, Wade also told Iranian President Ahmadinezhad that Iran "needs to be responsible, should not be secretly arming groups, and should not pursue nuclear weapons." ¶15. (C) Mbaye claims that Wade was the middleman who created new ties between Sarkosy and Qadhafi and to help cement commercial deals between France and Libya. Mbaye said that Wade is not traveling as much as he used to, but that he is very good at "asking for money" and demanding that countries bring investment to Senegal. He thought a recently announced new Sudanese investment for a truck assembly plant was legitimate. "THE PRESIDENT IS A GOOD MAN" -------------- ¶16. (C) Asked his opinion of the Wade administration's efforts at communicating its plans and priorities, Mbaye replied that the government does a "bad job of getting its message out; (Information) Minister Sow is terrible," as evidenced by his initial denial that a boy had died during the December Kedougou riots. Mbaye added that in that case and many others, the government doesn't really know what's happening. He added, with exasperation, "that's why we have a program of national informants." Mbaye is proud of Senegal's open press but said the journalists were no good: usually they call to say they have a derogatory story and demand money to not run it. According to Mbaye, "a journalist's role is to investigate wrongdoing by the government, while the government's role is to try to hide that wrongdoing." Later he added that "President Wade is a good man; he loves his country and wants to leave behind real achievements. Me and everybody else in the government are probably bad, but the President is good." ¶17. (C) Compared to previous meetings, Mbaye was very upbeat about Senegal and President Wade. (During our last meeting he was pessimistic that the Wades would allow him to run for Mayor.) He said that Wade loves to surf the internet and he sends out lots of e-mails. Wade does not SMS, but he will call people on a whim from a cell phone handed to him by his military escort. COMMENT -------------- ¶18. (C) Mbaye is a true insider in the Wade administration who has accurately shared useful information in the past. At the same time, Wade is a master at keeping even his close advisors compartmentalized, and on some issues where Mbaye should be looped in, he is actually on the wrong side of the DAKAR 00000289 004.2 OF 004 door. Habib Mbaye is ambitious and is counting on Wade to help him move up politically (and financially),but he's also scared of Karim. BERNICAT BERNICAT