SENEGAL: MORE INSIGHTS FROM PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAKAR 000289

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/RSA, AF/EPS, AF/W, NEA/IR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2029
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KCOR KDEM PINR GV MR IR SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: MORE INSIGHTS FROM PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR

REF: A. A) 08 DAKAR 825

B. B) DAKAR 239 (NOTAL)

DAKAR 00000289 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION JAY T. SMITH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: (SBU) Minister Councilor at the Presidency
and Financial Advisor to President Wade, Habib Mbaye
(protect),recently shared new insights into the policy world
of President Wade. Mbaye is in a new role where he is
supposed to coordinate the inter-agency, inter-ministerial
efforts to support Wade's big schemes, and yet much of the
work has yet to get off the ground. On other projects that
are controlled by Karim Wade, Mbaye purposely stays out of
the way. Wade has outmaneuvered Idrissa Seck and Macky Sall
in the run-up to local elections and Karim will likely end up
being selected as the Mayor of Dakar. President Wade
supported the coups in Mauritania and Guinea because he is
scared of collusion with Senegal's armed forces. Wade
advised Iran's president to "work with the U.S." Wade is a
"good man" who has surrounded himself with "bad people." End
Summary.

PRESIDENT WADE'S GRAND PROJECTS
--------------

2. (C) During a recent conversation with Econ Counselor,
long-time financial advisor to President Wade, Habib Mbaye
provided additional insight into the priorities and
policy-making apparatus of Senegal's increasingly controlling
Presidency (Ref A). Mbaye said that President Wade had
recently named him to head up a new office in the Presidency
as the Coordinator of the Office for Implementing the
Engagements of the President of the Republic. In this role,
Mbaye apparently has considerable sway over the line
ministers to make sure their priorities are to support the
President's schemes.


3. (C) Despite his presumed role in assuring the ideas
become reality, even Mbaye seemed confused by the President's
New Year's decree about pursuing new "Grand Projects." He
defined the President's ideas as "projects" when they are
still in the planning stage, but "travaux" (works) when they
are actually being implemented. In Mbaye's mind, almost
everything is still a project, including the new airport, the
special economic zone, the port of the future, and the city
of the future. He gave only a half-hearted endorsement of
the Dakar-Diamniadio toll road as "travaux" and believes it's
really still in the project phase since he's not sure it will
be completed. Mbaye agreed that it was very much a missed
opportunity for Senegal when it withdrew from discussions
with the MCC on funding the toll toad. He said it was
Aminata Niane, the head of Senegal's investment promotion
agency (and a close ally of Karim Wade),who stopped the
MCC's participation because she didn't want to be under the
scrutiny of accountability requirements. For the new
airport, he wasn't sure that any work was being done (though
he admitted that he had not visited the site). He added
that, regardless of his title, since the airport is one of
the projects promoted by Karim Wade he cannot ask questions
about its progress or implementation.


4. (C) When asked about the President's new Grand Projects
to improve Dakar's infrastructure and make jobs for the youth
in urban centers, Mbaye scoffed at the idea, saying it is
another politically motivated idea from Karim. He added,
sensibly, that the government first needs to create jobs in
the rural communities because if it only creates jobs in
Dakar, all the youth from the countryside will descend on
Dakar in search of work.


5. (C) Mbaye was aware of the recent investment conference
(Ref B) but scoffed at the idea that Senegal had, or would,
change its law to allow public pension funds to be invested
outside the country. According to Mbaye, what Wade wants is
for the law to change so that the pension funds can be
"invested" in domestic infrastructure projects. He said the
conference was all about trying to secure new investment in
Senegal, in particular for Wade's personal priorities.
POLITICAL MANEUVERING AND THE LOCAL ELECTIONS
--------------

6. (C) Mbaye claimed that the recent efforts to discredit

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former Prime Minister and President of the National Assembly
Macky Sall were designed to keep Sall from influencing the
March 22 local elections or gaining momentum as a potential
future presidential candidate. Mbaye stated that the
Minister of Interior's accusations made against Sall for
laundering funds received from Gabonese President Omar Bongo
of Gabon were a political ploy. According to Mbaye, there
is, indeed, a letter from Sall to Bongo asking for
"assistance" and apparently Bongo had previously provided
Sall with some money, though Mbaye did not think it was a
large amount. Mbaye said that Sall should have known that it
was improper for somebody "outside of the government" to
receive money from foreign heads of state (though he added
that it is not uncommon, and conceded that Wade had benefited
from the same type of funding when he was in the opposition).



7. (C) There was no real money laundering case, Mbaye
admitted, but that this was an easy tool for the government
to use. He claimed that there is no law on the books
prohibiting officials from receiving money from foreign
governments. Mbaye thought that "for now" the goal was just
to scare Sall, and that it would be unlikely for him to be
put on trial or go to jail. (Note: the money laundering
charges against Sall were dismissed on February 26. End
note.) In Mbaye's opinion, if the government wanted to,
however, it would be easy for inspectors to make a corruption
case against Sall since he's spent so much time in business
and government.


8. (C) Regarding Idrissa Seck, Mbaye claimed that "the
President is very clever," and brought Seck into the ruling
PDS party, but with no intention of allowing Seck's people to
be added to the top of PDS electoral lists. In addition, the
government specifically manipulated the electoral situation
in Thies in order to keep Seck from regaining the mayoralty
by dividing the city into four communes who will elect local
officials. Seck is not running for a commune and would need
those four Mayors and the Municipal Counselors to in turn
vote him Mayor of Thies. Mbaye thinks this is unlikely to
happen. In Mbaye's opinion, Seck's near-term goal is to
change the constitution to create a Vice President position,
which Seck believes Wade will give to him (though that is
unlikely if he is not an elected official). Mbaye claimed
that the initial falling-out between Wade and Seck happened
when Seck was Prime Minister and stole Wade's medical records
to assess if he was healthy enough to run for a second term.


9. (C) In Mbaye's mind, Karim Wade will likely gain the
Mayoralty of Dakar. Mbaye himself is apparently at the top
of the PDS's list for Mayor of the Dakar's Point E/Fann
Residence neighborhood and he is fairly confident that he
will win. To do so, Mbaye admitted he will have to spend a
lot of money and "secure" the blessing of the most important
local Marabout, Mbacke Mbacke, whom Mbaye also put on the
electoral list. Karim Wade lives in Point E, but he is not
running for that or any commune. Instead, he is simply on
the proportional list. Mbaye explained that after the 19
commune chiefs are elected (via votes for the party) they
then elect the Mayor of Dakar, presumably Karim. Mbaye said
that last year he thought Karim would sit out one more
presidential cycle before entering politics, but now Mbaye
thinks it is clear that Karim wants to be Senegal's next
President.


10. (C) Mbaye justified the complicated election process, by
noting that the second list permits the winner to bring more
party loyalists into the well-paying local government advisor
jobs. Mbaye believes that countrywide the ruling PDS party
should win a minimum of 60 percent of the local positions.
At the same time, the PDS is worried because the opposition
has to make a big push now or it will be completely ruined.


11. (C) According to Mbaye, there will definitely be a
government reshuffle after the local elections, including a
new Prime Minister. Mbaye added that he personally likes
Prime Minister Soumare and thinks he's doing a good job.
Mbaye believes that President Wade is "comfortable" with a
technocrat as PM because the previous two (Seck and Sall, who
were concurrently the number two official in the PDS) "let
the power go to their heads and started scheming to on how to

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replace Wade." At the same time, Mbaye thinks that Finance
Minister Aboulaye Diop is "trying to make Soumare look bad"
because Diop wants the job.


12. (C) In Mbaye's opinion, the Mouride leadership remains
central to Wade's political power and Wade maintains good
relations with the Khalife-general. At the same time, the
current Khalife-general, Serigne Bara Mbacke, is apparently
open to entreaties from Seck and Sall and maybe others. The
previous Khalife made clear that Wade was "his guy," in
Mbaye's words. Mbaye recounted how, in late January, Sall
had a secret meeting with the Khalife-generale, but President
Wade learned about the meeting because he has "his guy"
planted in the Khalife's entourage.

SENEGAL'S EXTERNAL RELATIONS: FEAR OF COUPS; IRAN
-------------- --------------

13. (C) When asked about President Wade's responses to the
coups in Mauritania and Guinea, Mbaye replied that in both
cases, Wade "hates" the coups and is pushing for elections
and a return to civilian control. However, Wade is also
"scared." Wade sees Senegal, and himself, completely
surrounded by military governments, and "he knows" that some
of those militaries are trying to convince Senegal's armed
forces to take power. Therefore, Wade is trying to maintain
good relations with these new military leaders in order to
"cut" their ties with Senegal's military.


14. (C) Mbaye noted that he traveled with Wade to Tehran and
Qatar in January; he heard Wade tell Iran's President to take
this opportunity to improve relations with the U.S. and that
he (Wade) was ready to help. According to Mbaye, Wade also
told Iranian President Ahmadinezhad that Iran "needs to be
responsible, should not be secretly arming groups, and should
not pursue nuclear weapons."


15. (C) Mbaye claims that Wade was the middleman who created
new ties between Sarkosy and Qadhafi and to help cement
commercial deals between France and Libya. Mbaye said that
Wade is not traveling as much as he used to, but that he is
very good at "asking for money" and demanding that countries
bring investment to Senegal. He thought a recently announced
new Sudanese investment for a truck assembly plant was
legitimate.

"THE PRESIDENT IS A GOOD MAN"
--------------

16. (C) Asked his opinion of the Wade administration's
efforts at communicating its plans and priorities, Mbaye
replied that the government does a "bad job of getting its
message out; (Information) Minister Sow is terrible," as
evidenced by his initial denial that a boy had died during
the December Kedougou riots. Mbaye added that in that case
and many others, the government doesn't really know what's
happening. He added, with exasperation, "that's why we have
a program of national informants." Mbaye is proud of
Senegal's open press but said the journalists were no good:
usually they call to say they have a derogatory story and
demand money to not run it. According to Mbaye, "a
journalist's role is to investigate wrongdoing by the
government, while the government's role is to try to hide
that wrongdoing." Later he added that "President Wade is a
good man; he loves his country and wants to leave behind real
achievements. Me and everybody else in the government are
probably bad, but the President is good."


17. (C) Compared to previous meetings, Mbaye was very upbeat
about Senegal and President Wade. (During our last meeting
he was pessimistic that the Wades would allow him to run for
Mayor.) He said that Wade loves to surf the internet and he
sends out lots of e-mails. Wade does not SMS, but he will
call people on a whim from a cell phone handed to him by his
military escort.

COMMENT
--------------

18. (C) Mbaye is a true insider in the Wade administration
who has accurately shared useful information in the past. At
the same time, Wade is a master at keeping even his close
advisors compartmentalized, and on some issues where Mbaye
should be looped in, he is actually on the wrong side of the

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door. Habib Mbaye is ambitious and is counting on Wade to
help him move up politically (and financially),but he's also
scared of Karim.

BERNICAT
BERNICAT