SENEGAL: CONTENTIOUS LOCAL ELECTIONS IN THE CASAMANCE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000257

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TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM PHUM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: CONTENTIOUS LOCAL ELECTIONS IN THE CASAMANCE

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1. (SBU) Summary: In the run-up to the March 2009 local elections,
POL Assistant met with authorities and NGO representatives in
Ziguinchor to discuss local politics and the state of the peace
process between the government and the Movement of Democratic Forces
in the Casamance (MFDC). The upcoming local elections are seen by
many as a good opportunity to vote for those candidates whom they
hope can end a 26-year long conflict and bring peace and prosperity
to the region. End summary.

MASS CONFUSION AND LEGAL QUESTIONS
--------------

2. (SBU) January 20, 2009 was the last day for all political parties
to send their lists to the local government in order to be eligible
to compete in the March 22 election. However, in some areas the
ruling Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) did not respect this
injunction and some of their lists were registered well after the
23:00 deadline had passed. In addition, the creation of three new
regions, one of which is the new region of Sedhiou, which used to be
part of the Ziguinchor region, has been the source of much confusion
and frustration as many candidates complained that they did not know
or were not made aware of where they needed to register for the
elections. Furthermore, the region is rife with rumors that
foreigners from Guinea-Bissau and Guinea-Conakry received Senegalese
birth certificates that in turn allow them to register to vote.

THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE SOUTH
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3. (SBU) Currently, the three major parties vying for power in the
Casamance are: the PDS with its leaders Abdoulaye Balde, the
Secretary-General of the Presidency, Innocence Ntab, the Minister of
Labor and Christian Diatta, the Minister of Bio Fuels, Renewable
Energy and Scientific Research; the "Taku Defar Senegal" coalition
lead by incumbent Ziguinchor Mayor Robert Sagna, and the Benno
Siggil Senegaal coalition of opposition parties.


4. (SBU) Contacts say that Sagna has the advantage of having very
good relations with "Les Notables" (elderly people with influence).
They underlined his reputation as a person who runs his affairs
discretely without much fanfare and who makes sure to attend
familial ceremonies or send his representatives. Sagna is a
Catholic and he belongs to the "Joola" ethnic group, which makes up
about 60 percent of the local population. Contacts said, "Should
the PDS list be perceived to be weak they could easily lose the
elections to Sagna." The PDS list is headed by Abdoulaye Balde, a
close ally of Presidential scion, Karim Wade. According to the same
contacts, Balde seems to have the support of the youth and women.
Balde has also brought a sizeable war chest with which to "buy" the
sympathies of the population and he has the backing of the state.
However, he will face some challenges to overcome the fact that he
is from the Peul ethnic group associated with Kolda rather than
Ziguinchor and he is said to be a rather uncharismatic and not very
eloquent speaker.


5. (SBU) Meanwhile, in the district of Oussouye, the PDS may have
some problems after Minister Diatta selected unfamiliar people to
run on the party's list, leaving out charismatic and popular local
candidates such as Ms. Emily Diatta, a well known parliamentarian,
and Demba Diagne, the President of the Regional Council. According
to a senior PDS Councilor, President Wade's promotion of Innocence
NTap to Minister of State has been a source of contention locally.
Currently Balde and NTap are in a battle royal to control the PDS in
the region. Many PDS members acknowledged that their party could
lose the elections if Balde and Ntap do not set aside their
differences, "Our party must overcome individual interests to focus
more on unity to bring peace back to the region. If not, the
opposition will win in Ziguinchor."

PEACE PROCESS TALKS ARE UNDERWAY
--------------

6. (SBU) Several contacts confirmed that the peace talks are still
underway with the assistance of political parties, local and
military authorities, opinion and religious leaders, NGOs, and
representatives of the MFDC. However, a perception that the
government has distributed more money to some rebels than to others
has raised tensions among the different guerilla groups. Contacts
noted that the death of Abb Diamacoune (the former MFDC liaison)
weakened the MFDC and led to the creation of five new political
groups and three military factions who are in a permanent state of
conflict over the control of the MFDC's guerillas in the bush.
Currently, the MFDC's military branch includes a northern one led by
Salif Sadio and southern one led by Atou Badiate.


7. (SBU) A potential Self Help grantee who lives in the bush and who
has firsthand experience with the conflict confirmed that the
government does not want to use the army against the rebels, even
though they have the means and the capabilities to do so if so
ordered. He added that, if the government implements a
comprehensive demining plan, such as the one that Handicap
International is carrying out, the rebels would be more than willing

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to return to their fields and grow crops instead of trying to make
money by attacking bush taxis and robbing passengers, "at this
point, it's about money and opportunity. If the government can
create jobs and build a solid infrastructure, then the rebels would
be willing to listen."

COMMENT
--------------

8. (SBU) Most political observers point to Ziguinchor as a city to
watch during the election as two heavyweights are pitted against one
another. Internal divisions within the PDS and a strong and popular
incumbent make it difficult to predict who will be the next Mayor of
this pivotal city, but whoever he is, he will have some major
challenges to rehabilitate this conflict-weary region.
BERNICAT