Senegal: Local Elections- A First Look

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000173 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL AND INR/AA PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM ECON SG SUBJECT: Senegal: Local Elections- A First Look ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Senegal is scheduled to hold twice postponed local elections on March 22, 2009. The ruling Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) and its coalition partners do not seem ready. Nevertheless, they (and most political observers here) are confident that they will easily defeat the opposition coalition in most localities. Meanwhile, the National Assembly has already passed several amendments to the Electoral Code that are clearly designed to favor the ruling party. For its part, the opposition has warned that it would not accept another postponement or attempts at electoral fraud. In spite of the conventional wisdom that they are likely to lose the local elections, opposition leaders express confidence, saying that the time is ripe for them to hand President Aboudlaye Wade a major defeat. End Summary The Ruling Party Stacks the Deck in Its Favor -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Up for grabs are all of the seats in the country's 530 regional, municipal and rural government councils across the country's 14 regions. Senegal uses a complicated hybrid plurality-wins-all/proportional representation system for assigning council seats. On December 30, the government amended the law for apportioning council seats, ostensibly to produce stable councils and to reduce the need to form coalitions. The modified system ensures that the party that wins a plurality of the popular vote in a district will automatically have a ruling majority of the seats on the council, eliminating the possibility of small parties forming a coalition after the election to thwart the will of the ruling party (although small parties can submit combined lists of candidates beforehand). Mayors are then selected by a majority of council members, not voters. The Ruling Party Is Not Ready -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Because of poor preparation and petty personal politics, the PDS and its coalition partners are in disarray. In several cases, local PDS leaders will go to the polls competing against dissidents from the party's own ranks. The most glaring cases are in the vote-rich Parcelles Assainies suburb of Dakar and in Saint-Louis where two senior leaders who were not selected by the party to run under its banner decided to try their luck without the party's blessing. In many other areas, local dissident leaders are staying in rank but protesting loudly and publicly against the national party leadership. For example, in the Bignona department in the region of Ziguinchor, former Minister of Defense and current National Assembly Deputy Youba Sambou, lambasted the Minister of Youth, Mamadou Lamine Keita, for betraying a local agreement about who would be the party's candidates. The Opposition Is Back -------------- ¶4. (SBU) After boycotting the 2007 legislative elections, this local election is the first opportunity for Senegal's opposition parties to test out their political clout. In order to avoid what would likely have been a massive electoral defeat, the opposition has chosen to contest the elections under a united front called "Benno Siggil Senegal" (Unity for Senegal's Victory). However, quarrels between the various leaders within this disjointed coalition, especially regarding which party is supposed to get how many seats in the lists that are presented, have shown early on the limits of this venture. Talla Sylla, leader of the opposition party Alliance for Progress and Justice, told Poloff that the Socialist Party, the country's largest opposition party, is running roughshod over its allies insisting that as the largest opposition party it should have the most representatives. Sylla said that this is why he left the coalition to compete under his own banner in the pivotal city of Thies. Deputy Cheikh Bamba Dieye, a young and upcoming leader, told Poloff that it was only after he threatened a solo run that the coalition accepted, thirty minutes prior to the deadline to present the lists, to place him atop the opposition list in his city of Saint-Louis. Disorganized PDS Still Confident -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Abdou Fall, the Second Vice President of the National Assembly, and a close political ally of Wade, did not hesitate to tell Poloff that, "The PDS's division is problematic and yet despite this glaring weakness we will still win because the opposition is so weak." Fall believes that these elections are very important in order to gauge the country's political winds in this delicate pre-succession period. In his view, institutional reforms to strengthen the legislative branch and local governments, followed by early presidential elections before 2012, would be the best course to guarantee Senegal's stability after Wade. Bending the Rules DAKAR 00000173 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In a recent meeting of the PDS Directorate, President Wade told government officials that anybody who lost in these elections would be expected to resign from their government positions(Note: As in France, Senegalese law allows for the politicians to hold both local elected office and positions in the central government concurrently. End note.) As a result of this stark warning many in the party have scrambled to do whatever is necessary to make sure that they are well placed to win. For example, in the region of Diourbel, where the ruling party missed the deadline to hand in its list, instructions were allegedly given by the Interior Minister to the Prefect to accept the PDS' lists. The National Electoral Commission appealed the case to the Court of Appeals for nullification but lost. PDS Likely to Win By Default -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Despite his party's lack of preparedness and the budget crisis facing the GOS, Wade has not yet yielded to the temptation to postpone the elections. All things being equal, the PDS should lose big in these local elections given the high level of discontent that many Senegalese feel regarding Wade's second stint as President. 2008 was a difficult year for the government, characterized by high food and fuel prices and budgetary problems. As a result, these elections should be a heyday for the opposition. However, given its lack of unity and creativity and a dearth of charismatic leadership, the opposition may again miss the opportunity to take advantage of popular disenchantment with Wade's rule. End comment. Bernicat