CORRECTED COPY: GUINEA-BISSAU: OPPOSITION PRS PARTY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 001504 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/W, DRL AND INR/AA PARIS, LISBON, LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM HDP SG SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY: GUINEA-BISSAU: OPPOSITION PRS PARTY DISCRETE FOR THE MOMENT, WORRIED, LOOKING FOR HOLES IN THE PAIGC ARMOR ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a November 4 meeting with PolOff, Ibrahim Sori Djalo, Interim President of the opposition Party for Social Renovation (PRS) and Augusto Poquena, PRS Secretary General, started off describing their party's cooperation with the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) on a list of projects before the newly convened Popular National Assembly. However, they quickly shifted to accusing the PAIGC of being responsible for violence and complaining complained about military control of civilian institutions and alleged Libyan influence in the military. They accused recently elected Malam Bacai Sahna of being a weak president and said they view the recent border tension with Senegal as having been inflated to divert attention from the March and June assassinations. Poquena expressed worry for his personal safety due to his criticism of military authorities. The PRS hopes to capitalize on potentially dissident PAIGC deputies and public dissatisfaction with any reticence that the GOGB may show in reducing military control and impunity. END SUMMARY. PRS Cooperates with PAIGC for Now... -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The PRS is the major opposition party in the National Assembly with 28 out of 100 seats (the PAIGC has 67). Its presidential candidate, Kumba Yala, made it to the final round of the presidential elections in July, but lost heavily to Malam Bacai Sahna. The PRS is a party whose base is in the Balanta ethnic group, the largest ethnic group in the country. However, while the Balanta are a plurality they are not a majority of the population. As such, this ethnic base is too small to win a general election or a majority in the Assembly. To correct for this weakness, many believe that Yala's recent conversion to Islam was a cynical electoral ploy done to increase his electoral support among Muslims (Note: Balata are primarily animists. End note.),who make up a plurality among the country's religious groups. However, in the second round of the recent presidential election, Kumba did not even win a major portion of the Balanta vote and won only 37 percent of the vote nationally. The party is therefore searching for allies among potentially dissident PAIGC Deputies as they become unhappy with PAIGC policy and a lack of legislative successes. ¶3. (SBU) PRS National Assembly deputies Ibrahim Sori Djalo and Augusto Poquena, both recognized their minority status in the Assembly and said that their party would engage in "responsible opposition" and would work constructively with the PAIGC because the voters are expecting this. The PRS is ready to contribute to the passage of a responsible national budget, a working National Assembly budget, security sector reform, and a new system of government accounting. They welcomed President Sahna's proposal to reform the constitution, since it has big holes and is a "bootleg" of the constitution of the former colonial power, Portugal. . . . But Prepares for Later -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In response to a question about the most urgent problems of the moment, Djalo and Poquena became very emotional and spoke about the March killings of Armed Force Chief of Staff Tagme na Waie and President Joao Bernardo Vieira, and on the June killings of ex-ministers Baciro Dabo and Helder Proenca. Vieira was no friend of the PRS, said Djalo, but "everyone knows that the military did this in collaboration with Prime Minister Gomes." They feel that the convening of an international commission to investigate and expose the killers is more important than security sector reform. Poquena also criticized the promotions of Jose Zamora Induta to Rear Admiral and Antonio Njai to Major General. ¶5. (SBU) Poquena also charged, without elaborating, that Libya is influencing the armed forces in the form of large payments of which the government has no knowledge of. Reflecting a sentiment among other public figures interviewed recently, Poquena also expressed concern that his criticisms of the government and armed forces rendered him vulnerable to physical attack and that he had no personal protection. Djalo then tag-teamed back into the discussion positing that the current Senegalo-Guinean border dispute is artificial because the "frontier is not a simple straight line and never has been. So why cry panic now, except to divert attention away from the assassinations?" Transforming PRS into National Party -------------- ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Given the structural limits of the electoral base of PRS, the party will be condemned to permanent minority status in DAKAR 00001504 002 OF 002 the National Assembly and in the larger body politic, unless its leaders can begin to persuade non-Balata Bissau-Guineans that the party that oversaw the Balanta-ization of the armed forces can actually be a true national party. Knowing this, the party's leaders are seeking to create an image of constructive participation in the deliberation of Assembly sessions as they wait to take advantage of all the weaknesses of the current president and prime minister, including perceived complicity in four assassinations, the militaries interference in civilian politics and law enforcement, and stalled security sector reform. In addition, there is some concern that widespread and growing public opinion holds that elections will not improve the well-being or quality of life of the population nor stabilize the country's political situation. BERNICAT