Senegal: President and Ex-Number Two Reconcile

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SUBJECT: Senegal: President and Ex-Number Two Reconcile


1. (SBU) Summary: On January 12, 2009 Senegalese President Abdoulaye
Wade and former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck officially announced
their political reconciliation. Seck who fell out with and opposed
Wade in the 2007 presidential elections maintains his chances to
become Senegal's next President. Political observers believe that
this opportunistic reconciliation is designed to enable Wade to stem
the fragmentation of the ruling party while setting the stage (he
seems to believe) for Seck to compete with the President's son Karim
for the ruling party's nomination for presidential candidate in

2012. End Summary.

Countering the opposition
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2. (SBU) Senegal's opposition announced a recent move to form a
coalition for the March 22 local elections. Their goal is to turn
these elections into a referendum on Wade's popularity. They have
been joined by Macky Sall, former Prime Minister and President of
the National Assembly, who resigned from the ruling Democratic Party
of Senegal (PDS) taking with him many disgruntled party members. By
reconciling with Idrissa Seck, who is arguably the second most
popular and well known political figure in the country, Wade hopes
to minimize the impact of Sall's dissidence. It also prevents Seck
and Sall from joining forces in a united opposition coalition.

The Never-Ending Battle for Presidential Succession
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3. (SBU) This reconciliation brings the battle for succession back
within the ruling party. Wade's biological son (Karim),and what
many describe as his spiritual (Seck) will have to compete for their
party's nomination or find a power sharing formula and or mutual
guarantees of immunity after Wade leaves power.

COMMENT
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4. (SBU) The PDS and Seck's party Rewmi have merged their lists of
candidates in preparation for local elections. In a press
conference Seck maintained that he is ready to serve in any position
that Wade will entrust him with, which many believe may indicate
that he might become Prime Minister again, given the rampant
speculation that the days of Cheikh Hadjibou Soumar, the current
prime minister, are numbered. What remains unclear is how or if
Wade's son Karim is willing to welcome Seck back into the fold given
the widely held belief that Karim help orchestrate Seck's ouster
from the PDS before and that both men hope to succeed Wade.
Bernicat