NETHERLANDS ANTILLES PLANS FOR JANUARY 2010 ELECTIONS, AND

UNCLAS CURACAO 000069 DEPT FOR FOR L, M, PM, WHA\CAR, AND WHA\PPC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: NA AA NL PGOV PREL MARR SNAR SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS ANTILLES PLANS FOR JANUARY 2010 ELECTIONS, AND TIMING OF USFOL RENEWAL REF: (A) CURACAO 000012 (B) CURACAO 000040 (C) CURACAO 000056 ¶1. (U)This is an action request (para. 6) ¶2. (SBU) POLITICAL CALENDAR: The Government of Netherlands Antilles (GONA) has announced that national Parliamentary elections will be held, as required, in January 2010 (ref. A Curacao 000012). The current Parliament expires in March, 2010. PM de Jongh-Elhage had proposed allowing the current government to continue through the dissolution period to avoid the burden of holding elections for a political entity that will disappear. The governments of the other four Antillean Islands concurred with the PM's proposal but opposition parties in Curacao objected, calling any electoral delay unconstitutional. The Dutch Council of Advice approved the PM's proposal, but the Antillean Council of Advice recommended against the delay in a non-binding decision, citing a lack of consensus in Curacao. The GONA had agreed to abide by the Council's advice and reluctantly decided not to alter the January date for Antillean Parliamentary elections. Separately, Aruba remains on track to hold its parliamentary elections on September 25, 2009. ¶3. (U) POLITICAL STRUCTURE: The Netherlands Antilles (NA) is in the process of dissolution, although its successor political entities will remain part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands (KON). The current proposal to dissolve the NA will give Curacao and St. Maarten status similar to Aruba, with the remaining BES islands (Bonaire, St. Eustatius, and Saba) becoming special overseas municipalities within the Netherlands. ¶4. (U) OPPORTUNITY FOR CURACAO OPPOSITION PARTIES: Curacao Opposition parties are pleased with the PM's announcement, seeing it as an important strategic victory. The elections open the opportunity for these parties, some of which oppose the USAF counterdrug Forward Operating Location here, to build on their strong showing in the May 2009 referendum (ref. B Curacao 000040)and to gain power prior to dissolution. This, in turn, could also strengthen their position in the competition to form a new Curacao government after dismantling. ¶5. (SBU) TIMING IMPORTANT: The Kingdom of the Netherlands has already expressed doubt as to whether legislation can be passed in time to meet the current October, 2010 dissolution target date. Following the PM's announcement, ruling coalition member and FOL party leader, Anthony Godett has proposed delaying dissolution to July, 2011, to correspond with island parliament elections. The January elections could increase pressure to delay dismantling, while an opposition victory then could lead to calls for further discussion on the terms of dissolution. ¶6. (SBU) ACTION REQUEST: The current governments in the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba are strongly supportive of the FOLs. In view of the electoral calendars, political maneuvering and the fact that some Curacao Opposition parties object to the US military presence here, we again (ref A. Curacao 000012) suggest that USG entities with equities in the FOLs consider what would be the best timing for renewal (possibly by simple delivery of a diplomatic note) of the current agreement with the Kingdom of the Netherlands. DUNNTJ