GAERC DEMARCHE: DENMARK'S RESPONSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 000470 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/NB, NEA, SCA, AF E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2019 TAGS: PREL MARR EAID KPAL AF PK IR IS ZL DA GV UZ, SY SUBJECT: GAERC DEMARCHE: DENMARK'S RESPONSE REF: A. EMAIL FROM WILLIAM LUCAS 10/18/2009 ¶B. EMAIL FROM ELIZABETH KONICK 10/17/2009 Classified By: (U) Ambassador Laurie S. Fulton; reason 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Lars Bo Larsen, MFA's European Correspondent, welcomed the USG's demarche ahead of the October GAERC and offered the following response October 20: - Afghanistan/Pakistan: the EU wanted to agree on a comprehensive strategy this month, but the Afghan elections are not yet over and the outcome will inevitably affect the strategy. The October GAERC intends to "signal a strengthened effort." For its part, Denmark "would have wanted more coordination with the USG"; agrees on the importance of EUPOL; and is trying to find "more new money for Pakistan." Larsen perceived a "decreasing impact" of the Af/Pak envoys and the Friends of Democratic Pakistan. - Western Balkans: this issue will not attract much interest at the October GAERC, as we all await the parties' reaction to the joint EU-US approach from the previous week. - Mideast: "There is nothing happening" in the peace process. The EU members were split in their response to the Goldstone Report. Syria was to have signed an agreement with the EU on the margins of the GAERC but is now seeking postponement; Denmark is pushing the agreement and expects it to be signed at the end of this year. Denmark understands that FM Moallem wants to sign but faces reluctance from other regime elements. ¶2. (C) Besides the items mentioned by the USG, Larsen cited the following matters on the agenda: - Sri Lanka: Denmark asked for a discussion, concerned about the plight of over 250,000 IDPs living in what "look like internment camps." An EU report this week will say Sri Lanka does not meet the criteria for continuing to enjoy customs preferences (GATT),but Larsen expected the Council would wait until the November GAERC before taking a position that would start a six-month period during which Sri Lanka would have to improve or lose its preferences. Denmark welcomes the recent USG visits to Sri Lanka and is keen on continued transatlantic coordination. There are about 12-15,000 Sri Lankan Tamil immigrants in Denmark; the LTTE has been less heavy-handed here than in Norway and Sweden. - Guinea: the authorities' behavior has been "unacceptable." Larsen expected the GAERC to impose travel restrictions on the leadership, and perhaps a weapons embargo. - Uzbekistan: Larsen expected the GAERC to adopt without discussion a position that will allow the post-Andijan sanctions to expire and send a clear message that the EU foresees a need for intensified dialogue on human rights. The EU position will be reviewed in spring 2010. ¶3. (C/NF) Iran will be discussed at the Foreign Ministers' dinner Monday evening (October 26),Larsen said. At Denmark's suggestion, the September GAERC decided to commission an analysis of possible sanctions and their likely effectiveness in light of the fact that Iran is shifting its trade away from Europe. That analysis is not proceeding as fast as Denmark wants, and FM Per Stig Moeller will stress the need to complete it and discuss it by December. Larsen (protect) confided that Spain, Belgium, Greece and Sweden (the EU Presidency) are reluctant. He said Swedish FM Bildt in particular has theoretical concerns about the effectivenss of sanctions in general, and the Council Secretariat worries that sanctions are a "one-shot weapon" - what if you impose them and they do not have the desired effect? Minimize considered. COPENHAGEN 00000470 002 OF 002 FULTON