(C) NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR ON EU OPT-OUTS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000445 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NB, EUR/RUS, EUR/ERA, EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV DA RU GG SUBJECT: (C) NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR ON EU OPT-OUTS, RUSSIA, GEORGIA/ABKHAZIA, DOMESTIC POLITICS Classified By: (U) Ambassador Laurie S. Fulton; reason 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: National security advisor Thomas Ahrenkiel told the Ambassador October 9 that the Government still wants to end Denmark's opt-outs from EU common policies but the time is not right for a referendum. He briefed on relations with Russia, notably the Prime Minister's upcoming visit to Moscow (Nov. 2). He alluded to the Foreign Minister's visit to Abkhazia, which was coordinated with - and supported by - the Georgian government. He also briefed on domestic olitics in this the first week of the parliamentar session: he expected a Cabinet reshuffle in th spring, but doubted the PM would change the platorm inherited from his predecessor. (Other topi reported septel.) END SUMMARY. EU -- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met with the Prime Minister's national security advisor Thomas Ahrenkiel Octobe 9. Ahrenkiel noted that EC President Barroso wasvisiting Copenhagen that day for a conference in the build-up to COP-15. The Prime Minister would discuss EU matters with him, including: what can be done about Czech opposition to the Lisbon Treaty; who should be the permanent president of the European Council; who should replace Javier Solana; and who should be Denmark's new Commissioner. Ahrenkiel also mentioned that PM Rasmussen had discussed Spain's upcoming EU Presidency with PM Zapatero during the latter's visit October 2 in support of Madrid's candidacy to host the 2016 Olympic Games. ¶3. (C) With regard to Denmark's opt-outs from EU common policies, Ahrenkiel said PM Lars Loekke Rasmussen retains his predecessor's intention to eliminate them: they leave Denmark without influence, and being outside the euro-zone entails extra costs. Nonetheless, despite the party platform's call for a referendum on ending the opt-outs this parliamentary term, the PM does not intend to call a referendum because the timing is wrong: Denmark does not meet the criteria for joining the euro (its deficit for next year is projected at 5 percent of GDP, over the 3 percent ceiling),and it would be "absurd" to ask voters to approve something that the Government could not implement. On the other opt-outs (defense and justice/home affairs),the PM will consult the major EU-supportive parties (not the Danish People's Party) in Parliament, where he would need a broad majority. It is known that there are differing views regarding justice/home affairs. While there is less disagreement about defense, the Government prefers to have one referendum only, perhaps broken down into individual choices on all opt-outs. Politically, the best time for a referendum is shortly after a general election. RUSSIA -------------- ¶4. (C) PM Rasmussen will visit Russia November 2 to meet with PM Putin. His main focus will be on COP-15, where Russia could be a spoiler: it has excess quotas worth billions of dollars that it could dump on the world market and wreck the entire quota system, and it wants them extended after the Kyoto Protocol expires. Given that Russia's emissions have declined around 30-40 percent since 1990, sale of quotas would be "money for nothing." Meanwhile, President Medvedev has set a target of improving energy efficiency by 40 percent. The EU member states have a "tacit agreement" not to buy quotas. ¶5. (C) Other topics on PM Rasmussen's agenda in Russia: he will push his hosts to be constructive on Afghanistan and Iran, especially since U.S. missile defense policy changes have been announced, and will address commercial relations (Carlsberg has about half the beer market in Russia). The pipeline should not be a problematic issue, as Denmark expects to approve it October 19-20 (which would then begin a public comment period). ¶6. (C) President Medvedev will make a state visit here in April. GEORGIA/ABKHAZIA -------------- ¶7. (C) Asked about Foreign Minister Per Stig Moeller's trip to Abkhazia this week, Ahrenkiel said the FM is increasing his travel in the Caucasus and Central Asia, to see if Denmark can be of help. This is a "good effort." The Georgian political system is "under great stress"; Denmark has supported it. With Georgia's Membership Application Process having receded, Denmark wants to increase practical cooperation. (Note: The FM's trip to Abkhazia, from Georgia, was coordinated with - and supported by - the Georgian government. End note.) DOMESTIC POLITICS -------------- ¶8. (C) The PM's speech opening the parliamentary session October 6 has led to a "very boring" debate. (Note: Supporters of the government praised it - Danish People's Party leader Pia Kjaersgaard called it one of the best she had heard) - while opponents criticized it for lacking substantive solutions. End Note.) Ahrenkiel predicted that Lars Loekke Rasmussen would probably reshuffle his Cabinet "in the spring," but probably not revise the party platform inherited from Anders Fogh Rasmussen until the next election. Ahrenkiel commented that Lars Loekke had wanted to focus more on domestic issues than his predecessor; he has found that foreign policy consumes a surprising amount of his time, more than anticipated, but he is enjoying it and realizes the run-up to COP-15 is giving him an exceptional opportunity to build relationships with world leaders. FULTON