FIVE FMS PLEDGE COOPERATION TOWARD COP-15

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COPENHAGEN 000397 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR S/SECC, OES, EUR/NE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KGHG PGOV EFIN PREL DA SUBJECT: FIVE FMS PLEDGE COOPERATION TOWARD COP-15 COPENHAGEN 00000397 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The foreign ministers of Denmark, Sweden, Finland, United Kingdom and France met in Copenhagen on September 10 to call urgently for reaching an ambitious climate agreement at the COP-15 climate conference in December. Warning that the risks of failure include potential "large-scale political upheaval, massive food shortages, destabilizing population movements" and cuts to access to water for millions, Danish FM Per Stig Moeller announced the five ministers had committed to "deploy their diplomatic network worldwide," "sparing no effort" to spread the message of urgency in the run-up to COP-15. Though this British initiative was not a meeting of heads of government, nor of climate ministers, it showed a shared political will to press creatively for an ambitious agreement in Copenhagen. On September 11, Danish PM Rasmussen met with his Indian counterpart in New Delhi to advance those prospects. The Danish Climate Ambassador gave the Embassy an update on state-of-play. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The five foreign ministers, Per Stig Moeller (Denmark), David Miliband (UK),Bernard Kouchner (France),Carl Bildt (Sweden), Alexander Stubb (Finland) appeared together at an event hastily organized by Copenhagen University and moderated by vice rector Lykke Friis on September 10 to "debate the prospects of an ambitious international agreement on climate change in December 2009 in Copenhagen." ¶3. (U) FM Moeller's speech encapsulated the purpose of the event. Highlights follow: "...The world has to reach a global climate agreement in this city in less than 100 days from now. The importance of getting an ambitious agreement in December that does enough to help countries mitigate and adapt to climate change cannot be overstated. If left unchecked, climate change has the potential to cause large-scale political upheaval, massive food shortages, destabilizing population movements and cut vital access to water for millions people. This is not just about cutting CO2 emissions or expanding renewable energy. It is about foreign policy and about the security challenges of the 21st century. Climate change will produce new international challenges that will require new forms of co-operation in the area of foreign policy. To stand a fair chance of reaching this goal, the five foreign ministers gathered here today, have agreed to deploy their diplomatic network worldwide, around 800 embassies altogether, to create the necessary political will to clinch a deal in December. In the remaining time before the conference, we will spare no effort in order to get this message across in the most persuasive way possible. With regard to Europe, the European Commission will today issue a communication on stepping up international climate finance. I am confident that the Commission will deliver a substantial input to the important negotiations coming up in the European Union. The European Union has been a global leader in the climate negotiations. We remain committed to reducing our green house gas emissions by 30 percent in 2020 from the level of 1990. But other developed countries have to play ball as well and deliver comparable reductions. We all agree here at the table to help ensure that the European Union delivers on its commitment to take a decision on an ambitious financial package at the European Council in October. The key outstanding issues in the climate negotiations at this moment are these. Firstly, a common goal for reducing global CO2 emissions to plus two degrees and no more, which the G8 already has agreed upon. This must be accompanied by clear reduction targets for both the medium and the long term. Secondly, to provide developing countries with the necessary tools COPENHAGEN 00000397 002.2 OF 003 for them to adapt to climate change. The developing countries will need to build more dams, sewage systems, roads and irrigation just to name a few things. The agreement will therefore need to unlock substantial new funds to this end." ¶4. (SBU) In their comments the other FMs also emphasized the urgency of achieving such an agreement, and lamented the slow pace of UN negotiations to date, which were "not on track" to reach an ambitious accord in Copenhagen. During the question-and-answer session that followed with an audience of students, academics journalists and diplomats, they responded to criticism that EU leaders have not shown much personal leadership on the issue. The FMs were defensive on the latter point, explaining that the EU acts through institutions, not personalities. FM Miliband added that Europe was "boringly united" on the climate issue, detracting media attention from European leadership on the issue. The ministers claimed that Europe's emissions reduction pledges were "first on the table," remain the most ambitious, and could be increased further if other major emitters do the same. Finnish FM Stubb contrasted President Obama's likeability with concrete EU action on climate. A video recording of the full public session is available on http://event.ku.dk/meettheministers Climate Ambassador On Danish Strategy -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Denmark's Climate Change Ambassador Steffen Smidt told us September 10 that the FMs' "show" in Copenhagen had been initiated by FM Miliband (our counterparts at the British Embassy here confirmed that). The visit here followed a "climate/energy tour" that started in Paris on September 7, proceeded to Rotterdam to visit a CCS project, then Warsaw and finally Copenhagen. According to Smidt, the five agreed to do so to demonstrate "activism" at their own level on the climate issue, to get their ministries to coordinate and work together to promote progress in climate talks in the run-up to COP-15, and also to stress the link between climate and security. ¶6. (SBU) Smidt noted positive signs of "changes on the ground in India and China" with regards to climate negotiations, and said that PM Rasmussen's visit to New Delhi and Swedish PM Reinfeldt's visit to South Africa were intended to help move those nations toward an agreement. (Note: Initial Danish press reports from the Rasmussen trip quoted the PM saying: "We have been promised that before COP15, India will do more for the many different approaches to be measurable, so they can fit in with an international agreement. But it is also equally clear that India cannot be expected to reduce CO2 emissions in coming decades, when (currently) 400 million people have no access to electricity. What matters is that the phase of development that India must pass through should be as sustainable as possible and that the country will learn from the mistakes the West has done with the nvironment." End Note.) ¶7. (SBU) Smidt said Dnmark believed the Major Economies Forum (MEF) to be a "useful supplementary instrument" for moving negotiations forward. Smidt said EU leaders understand the need for the Obama Administration to work with Congress before climate legislation can be finalized, but are concerned about the effect of the U.S. healthcare debate on climate legislation. ¶8. (SBU) The EU is "smarting" over its own bruising internal debate over climate financing, Smidt said, noting the European Commission had coincidentally issued a communication on the subject the same day, having failed to achieve consensus in two previous attempts. Asked how Denmark would react to the communication, Smidt said it was too soon to say for certain, but he thought Denmark would welcome it. He quoted FM Moeller's rhetorical flourish: "If not now, then when? If not us, then who?" Smidt expected the G77 and LDC states to criticize the EU finance proposal as offering too little. Denmark's role in negotiations is complicated by its COP-15 presidency, he said. Denmark would be cautious about openly supporting EU positions, but Denmark planned to play an active role COPENHAGEN 00000397 003.2 OF 003 as host, if necessary by circulating alternate texts to overcome negotiation gridlock. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) This meeting involved neither heads of government nor climate ministers. It was a political signal that a like-minded group in Europe is concerned at the pace of progress but still committed to pushing for the most ambitious possible agreement at COP-15. FULTON