DENMARK: APRIL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COPENHAGEN 000201 SIPDIS STATE FOR EEB/IFD/OMA AND EEB/TPP/ABT TREASURY FOR DAVID WRIGHT COMMERCE FOR PAUL DACHER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD ELAB KTDB PGOV DA SUBJECT: DENMARK: APRIL ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS REF: COPENHAGEN 105 (TAX REFORM MOVES FORWARD),COPENHAGEN 51 (BANK BAILOUT PLAN) ¶1. Contents: EAGR: Danes Must Pay to Live Longer ECON: Don't Stimulate, Regulate? ECON: Denmark by Numbers EIND: U.S. Now Novo Nordisk's Biggest Market EFIN: Slow Lending Even After Bank Bailout ENRG: Vestas Registers Big Profit But Cuts Workforce Danes Must Pay to Live Longer -------------- ¶2. A blue-ribbon governmental health commission has put forward 52 recommendations that aim to increase the expected average lifespan of Danes by three years within the next ten years. The centerpiece recommendation is increased duties on unhealthy products like tobacco, alcohol and sugar. For example, the commission recommended a new 50 percent duty on tobacco products (tobacco use is the cause of 25 percent of Danish deaths) and also proposed a total ban on indoor smoking in public buildings. The commission also seeks to slap a new 100 percent duty on sugar-laden products such as candy and soft drinks. ¶3. The Commission's recommendations built upon the recently-enacted tax reform bill that included increased taxes on saturated fats and sugar (Ref A). The commission has no authority to implement these recommendations, many of which are not considered politically viable. However, at least some of the recommendations will likely come to pass in the future, and hefty increases in duties on items such as candy and carbonated beverages could have a huge impact on U.S. brands such as Pepsi and Coca- Cola. Don't Stimulate, Regulate? -------------- ¶4. New Prime Minister Lars Lxkke Rasmussen has said he wants to see how the domestic and global economies are faring before initiating any new public stimulus spending, but has also stated that new stimulus packages in 2010 may be an interesting option for his government. The head of the Danish National Bank, Nils Bernstein, has also stated publicly that the time is not right for stimulus spending: rather, Bernstein suggests that counter-cyclical rules and regulations be put in place now so that banks are less tempted during good times to increase their appetite for risk. In particular, he has proposed stricter regulation of risk and liquidity management systems, including regulation of rating agencies. Bernstein has also proposed a restructuring of incentive pay schemes, since they have been proven to lead to overly-risky behavior. Denmark By Numbers -------------- ¶5. New estimates from OECD put Danish GDP contraction at around 4 percent in 2009 compared to the local consensus estimate of a 2.5 - 3 percent fall. House prices plunged 10.8 percent between first quarter of 2008 and first quarter 2009, the biggest drop since World War II. Housing sales are down 41 percent since the height of the housing market in 2007. Unemployment is increasing at a faster-than-expected rate, with a 50 percent increase in March compared to February. Extrapolating from OECD's most recent February statistics, we estimate the COPENHAGEN 00000201 002 OF 002 current unemployment rate at around 5.8 percent. U.S. Now Novo Nordisk's Biggest Market -------------- ¶6. Novo Nordisk put up great first quarter numbers, with after-tax profits of DKK 2.7 billion (USD 482 million) and an 18 percent jump in sales. About 44 percent of this new sales growth took place in the U.S. market, making the U.S. the biggest region for the company. One of the company's future cash cows, the Type-2 Diabetes drug Victoza, was recently approved for consumer by the EU's European Medicines Agency and is expected to hit European markets within two months. The U.S. FDA gave the drug a neutral review in an early April finding due to concerns about the risk of pancreatic cancer found in clinical trials using rodents. Novo Nordisk has stated that it will work to show there is no risk involved with the product through further clinical testing. The drug is expected to generate sales between DKK 7 - 15 billion yearly (USD 1.25 - 2.68 billion) if allowed into the American market. Banks Bailed Out But Still Slow Lending -------------- ¶7. Designed to stimulate bank lending to businesses, the government's January bank bailout seems to have failed its purpose. The initiative provided DKK 100 billion (USD 17.85 billion) to the banking sector with the express intent to facilitate new lending (Ref B). In December 2008, the Confederation of Danish Industry found that 37 percent of its members experienced increased trouble getting access to credit: that number has now jumped to 42 percent. In an April survey, only one company reported an increase in access to credit. The Danish National Bank reports that 60 percent of Danish banks have restricted credit access in the first three months of the year, after 70 percent restricted access in the last three months of ¶2008. Minister for Economics and Business Affairs Lene Espersen has criticized banks for not fulfilling their civic duty by lending more, and is looking to see if anything in the bailout package can be changed to make credit flow more easily. Vestas Puts Up Q1 Profit and Lays Off 9 Percent of Workforce -------------- ¶8. Vestas, the world's largest wind turbine producer, announced layoffs of 1250 workers in Denmark and another 650 in Northern Europe, which amounts to 9 percent of the global workforce. The stated reason for the layoffs was lagging demand in the Northern European markets. On the same day the pink slips were handed out, however, Vestas announced fabulous first quarter results, and rumors abound that cash-rich Vestas seeks to buy-out a competitor or supplier. While Vestas is trimming its production staff in Europe, it is gearing up to expand in its priority growth markets of China and the U.S. Vestas has a wind turbine production facility in Colorado. McCulley