DANISH VIEWS ON WAY FORWARD FOR GEORGIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000011 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2019 TAGS: PREL KDEM MARR ECON GG RS DA SUBJECT: DANISH VIEWS ON WAY FORWARD FOR GEORGIA REF: STATE 134559 Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Bill Mozdzierz, reasons 1.4b,d ¶1. (C) Denmark welcomes and largely shares our reftel strategy for Georgia and its separatist regions, Danish MFA Director for Russia and Eastern Europe Ruben Madsen and his team assured us January 6. Madsen observed that this is a good time to exchange views on the long-term approach, reporting that the French had demarched in support of Georgian territorial integrity in the final days of its EU presidency and that the European Commission is expected to propose soon new visa policy guidelines for Georgia. ¶2. (C) Russia must pay a price for its actions in Georgia, Madsen maintained, arguing that the Georgians miscalculated badly but that Moscow committed a grave and "stupid" error in recognizing the breakaway regions -- a mistake Madsen compared to Turkish recognition of northern Cyprus. Even many Russians have begun to appreciate this, Madsen and his team suggested. The challenge ahead of us, they argued, is to ensure that the separatist regions recognize that their best future lies not with Moscow, but with Georgia and the West. ¶3. (C) The Danes faulted the Georgian government with too little flexibility in the application of new legislation on the occupied territories, which they said continue to hamper Western humanitarian relief efforts. Madsen suggested that we should take care to engage the many constructive and pragmatic officials not directly within President Saakashvili's inner circle, which Madsen characterized as sometimes overly hawkish and rigid. ¶4. (C) Madsen and his team emphasized that our approach should differentiate between Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are varied in their relationship to Russia and their prospects for eventual reconciliation with Tbilisi. Madsen noted that Danish Foreign Minister Per Stig Moller has taken a particular interest in Abkhazia following his visit there last year and his meeting with de-facto leader Bagapsh. The Abkhazians remain dangerously ignorant of Europe and the West, Madsen maintained (he recalled that Bagapsh had suggested that the best thing the West could do would be to "leave us alone"),but FM Moller believes that this argues for greater, not less, engagement from us. ¶5. (C) Skeptical of sanctions, the Danes indicated that they would nevertheless be prepared to support targeted visa restrictions, if only for symbolic reasons. Madsen said that the immediate focus should be on maintaining an international presence in Georgia, suggesting that the Russians may not be clear themselves about what is acceptable to them, and so we may still have room to maneuver. Madsen said the EU will need to make decisions on extending the EU mission in February. ¶6. (C) Taking the long view, Madsen and his team argued that we will prevail by making Georgia proper so attractive that the Abkhazians and South Ossetians over time recognize that reconciliation and reintegration are the best way forward. This will require sustained support from us, flexibility from Tbilisi, and years of confidence-building measures, people-to-people exchanges and commercial development to achieve, they concluded. For their part, the Danes indicated that they are prepared to join us in these efforts and will work to ensure close coordination between the EU and the United States. CAIN