CENI OUTLINES TENTATIVE ELECTION TIMELINE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000085 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV SUBJECT: CENI OUTLINES TENTATIVE ELECTION TIMELINE ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Based on an analysis of the status of electoral preparations to date and anticipated timelines, the CENI internally agreed that Guinea could organize one election in September or October, and a second in November or December. The CENI agreed that the presidential and legislative elections should not be held concurrently, but disagreed over which should be held first. The CENI plans to submit to the CNDD a suggested legal framework under which elections could be organized. CENI members agreed that any constitutional revisions should be addressed separately. Financing is expected to continue to be a significant challenge. The CENI's decisions push the responsibility for declaring elections back to the CNDD. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) During a three-day retreat (January 19-21) funded by USAID through IFES, Guinea's National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) reviewed various election issues and outlined a tentative timeline for future elections. The CENI estimated that a final voter list would not be ready until the end of July due to remaining technical and logistical challenges. Based on this timeline, the CENI anticipated that the actual voter identification cards would be handed out in August and that elections could be held in September or October, assuming that all other requirements are met. ¶3. (SBU) Regarding concerns from civil society and political parties over the suspended constitution and the perceived lack of a legal framework with which to conduct elections, CENI members unanimously agreed that some kind of transitional legal framework would need to be in place before elections could be held. They agreed that the framework would need to clarify the roles of the CENI and the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Political Affairs (MATAP) in the aftermath of the December 23 coup d'etat. However, the CENI agreed that a full constitutional revision process should be separate. They planned to submit a draft document addressing the basic electoral code issues to the National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) for approval within two weeks. ¶4. (SBU) There was some discussion regarding the CENI's need for additional capacity building, restructuring, and additional staffing to effectively organize elections as tasked by the CNDD. Before the coup, MATAP was technically responsible for organizing elections while the CENI's role was to provide an independent mechanism for identifying and correcting potential problems and preventing fraud. CENI members commented that they will need to continue to collaborate with MATAP in order to advance the electoral process. ¶5. (SBU) On the question of whether presidential and legislative elections should be held separately or concurrently, CENI members agreed that logistical issues, including the need for multiple ballots and ballot boxes, necessitated holding the elections separately. They did not agree on which election should be held first, presidential or legislative. ¶6. (SBU) There was some discussion about financing issues, which continue to be a major stumbling block to a timely implementation of the projected timeline. CENI members commented that the CNDD was in danger of failing to meet its debt obligation payments at the end of the month, raising questions as to whether or not the CNDD would be able to come up with the $14 million needed to cover the election budget gap. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The CNDD has been shifting responsibility for elections over to the CENI and civil society, claiming that the CNDD cannot name an election date until the CENI develops a timeline. The January 19 retreat enabled the CENI to evaluate logistical challenges and develop a workable timeline for elections, which should give the CNDD less room to maneuver. The decision to propose a basic reinstatement of the electoral code, rather than a complete revision of the constitution, will help avoid lengthy discussions over the legal process, provided it is accepted by the CNDD, the political parties, and civil society. The CNDD's decision to put the CENI directly under its authority while making it the lead body for elections organization is making some political parties nervous. At the same time, the CENI does not currently have the capacity to organize elections as that is not what it was initially designed to do. END COMMENT. CONAKRY 00000085 002 OF 002 RASPOLIC