CENI OUTLINES TENTATIVE ELECTION TIMELINE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000085

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CENI OUTLINES TENTATIVE ELECTION TIMELINE


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Based on an analysis of the status of
electoral preparations to date and anticipated timelines, the
CENI internally agreed that Guinea could organize one
election in September or October, and a second in November or
December. The CENI agreed that the presidential and
legislative elections should not be held concurrently, but
disagreed over which should be held first. The CENI plans to
submit to the CNDD a suggested legal framework under which
elections could be organized. CENI members agreed that any
constitutional revisions should be addressed separately.
Financing is expected to continue to be a significant
challenge. The CENI's decisions push the responsibility for
declaring elections back to the CNDD. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) During a three-day retreat (January 19-21) funded
by USAID through IFES, Guinea's National Independent
Electoral Commission (CENI) reviewed various election issues
and outlined a tentative timeline for future elections. The
CENI estimated that a final voter list would not be ready
until the end of July due to remaining technical and
logistical challenges. Based on this timeline, the CENI
anticipated that the actual voter identification cards would
be handed out in August and that elections could be held in
September or October, assuming that all other requirements
are met.


3. (SBU) Regarding concerns from civil society and political
parties over the suspended constitution and the perceived
lack of a legal framework with which to conduct elections,
CENI members unanimously agreed that some kind of
transitional legal framework would need to be in place before
elections could be held. They agreed that the framework
would need to clarify the roles of the CENI and the Ministry
of Territorial Administration and Political Affairs (MATAP)
in the aftermath of the December 23 coup d'etat. However,
the CENI agreed that a full constitutional revision process
should be separate. They planned to submit a draft document
addressing the basic electoral code issues to the National
Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) for approval
within two weeks.


4. (SBU) There was some discussion regarding the CENI's need
for additional capacity building, restructuring, and
additional staffing to effectively organize elections as
tasked by the CNDD. Before the coup, MATAP was technically
responsible for organizing elections while the CENI's role
was to provide an independent mechanism for identifying and
correcting potential problems and preventing fraud. CENI
members commented that they will need to continue to
collaborate with MATAP in order to advance the electoral
process.


5. (SBU) On the question of whether presidential and
legislative elections should be held separately or
concurrently, CENI members agreed that logistical issues,
including the need for multiple ballots and ballot boxes,
necessitated holding the elections separately. They did not
agree on which election should be held first, presidential or
legislative.


6. (SBU) There was some discussion about financing issues,
which continue to be a major stumbling block to a timely
implementation of the projected timeline. CENI members
commented that the CNDD was in danger of failing to meet its
debt obligation payments at the end of the month, raising
questions as to whether or not the CNDD would be able to come
up with the $14 million needed to cover the election budget
gap.

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COMMENT
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7. (SBU) The CNDD has been shifting responsibility for
elections over to the CENI and civil society, claiming that
the CNDD cannot name an election date until the CENI develops
a timeline. The January 19 retreat enabled the CENI to
evaluate logistical challenges and develop a workable
timeline for elections, which should give the CNDD less room
to maneuver. The decision to propose a basic reinstatement
of the electoral code, rather than a complete revision of the
constitution, will help avoid lengthy discussions over the
legal process, provided it is accepted by the CNDD, the
political parties, and civil society. The CNDD's decision to
put the CENI directly under its authority while making it the
lead body for elections organization is making some political
parties nervous. At the same time, the CENI does not
currently have the capacity to organize elections as that is
not what it was initially designed to do. END COMMENT.

CONAKRY 00000085 002 OF 002


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