FORCES VIVES REJECT PROPOSAL FOR TRANSITIONAL GOV'T

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000736 SENSITIVE SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY - SENSITIVE CAPTION/PARA MARKINGS ADDEED E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EFIN ASEC GV SUBJECT: FORCES VIVES REJECT PROPOSAL FOR TRANSITIONAL GOV'T REF: A. OUAGADOUGOU 01048 ¶B. CONAKRY 0718 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. Guineans have recieved reports of the talks in Ouagadougou between Burkinabe President and mediator Blaise Compaore, the Forces Vives, and the CNDD with a mixture of concern, outrage, and resignation. After Compaore delivered his "non-paper" on November 20 outlining a proposed transitional government for Guinea (reftel A),it became apparent to opposition parties that these talks have reached an impasse. The CNDD immediately accepted the "proposal", while the Forces Vives quickly drafted a communique condemning both the propsal and Compaore's mediation efforts. The CNDD have returned to Guinea, where they are reveling in an easily-won political victory. Meanwhile, the Forces Vives remain in Ougadougou, placing small hope in their plans to deliver an effective counter-proposal. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) The Forces Vives were shocked when Compaore released his plans for a transitional government that was largely perceived as tilted in favor of the CNDD's position. Compaore's plans entail the creation of a 150 member Council of National Transition (CNT),and a 30 member Government of National Unity (GNU). The CNT would be chaired by the CNDD, with delegates appointed by the CNDD, the Forces Vives, and elements of civil society (trade unions, local magistrates, etc.). The GNU would be comprised of 30 members, with 10 each between the CNDD, Forces Vives, and civil society. A Prime Minister, appointed by the Forces Vives and vetted by the CNDD, would head the GNU. Any member of the GNU interested in running in the October elections would have to step down four months beforehand. ¶3. (U) The main point of contention for the Forces Vives is the large role the CNDD would play in such a government. Compaore's points failed to rule out CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara from having a role in government, as he would surely be appointed head of the CNU by his own supporters. In a November 20 communique released by the Forces Vives, Compaore is accused of ignoring the recommendations of the international community in regard to the non-candidacy of CNDD members, chiefly Dadis. The Forces Vives further accuse Compaore of not taking the will of the Guinean people into consideration. The communique concludes that the Forces Vives will consult with their members to decide if Compaore should be replaced as mediator. ¶4. (SBU) Reaction in Guinea to the proposal varies. Most opposition party members agree that the restrictions against the CNDD are not adequate, but differ on how to proceed. Mohamed Sidibe, vice-president of the NGR party (a minor party affiliated with the Forces Vives),equates Compaore's decision to allow Dadis to remain as "political piracy." Sidibe stresses that the large majority of Guineans are opposed to any mention of Dadis' candidacy in upcoming elections. Maimouna Sow, of the UFD, expressed her frustration with Compaore, saying that he is taking sides with Dadis. She accuses Compaore of ignoring the suffering of the victims of September 28 in favor of his own financial interests (reftel B). ¶5. (SBU) Others, like Mamadou Oury Diallo of the PDU party (another minor party within the Forces Vives),believe the proposal is potentially advantageous. In Diallo's opinion, if the Forces Vives had a strong Prime Minister, they would be able to diminish the influence of Dadis and the CNDD heading into elections. Diallo points out the four month period between mandatory resignation and elections as a time when Dadis and the CNDD will lose the capacity to influence or rig the elections. Others, like Dansa Kourouma of the NFD, believe getting Dadis out of power peacefully should be the main focus. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT. Frustration with Compaore is the common theme among opposition parties in Guinea. While his "non-paper" was reportedly meant only to initiate discussion between the CNDD and Forces Vives, it instead appears to have driven a wedge between the two sides. The CNDD quickly left the meeting, believing victory was theirs. Upon their return, jubilation was reported at the main military base in Conakry. The Forces Vives, despite having both domestic and international support, could only play witness as their chief demand - that Dadis leave power - went unanswered. A third round of meetings has not been scheduled, and the prognosis is dim for any binding resolution to result. This perceived "pro-CNDD" stance will certainly further fuel rumors in Conkary of financial linkage between junta leader Dadis Camara and Compaore. END COMMENT. Moller