FORCES VIVES SPOKESMAN OUTLINES TRANSITION

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000713 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: FORCES VIVES SPOKESMAN OUTLINES TRANSITION GOVERNMENT REF: CONAKRY 0703 ¶1. On November 9, CONoff met with the chief communication officer for the Forces Vives, Aboubacar Sylla, who also recently launched his own political party, to discuss the Forces Vives' position in ongoing transition negotiations. Sylla was asked about proposals set forth by Forces Vives members for a transition government in Guinea, the possibility of amnesty for CNDD members, and acceptable power-sharing arrangements if the CNDD does not leave power. CONoff's meeting took place as the ECOWAS mediator, Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore, started talks with the CNDD delegation in Ouagadougou. ¶2. Since the Forces Vives' meeting with Compaore last week, Sylla has been trying to dispel rumors of any division within the ranks of the Forces Vives (reftel). Sylla stressed that every member of the Forces Vives' delegation agreed upon two main points - that Dadis and the CNDD must leave power, and that a transitional government must be set up. These points were given to Compaore to present to the CNDD. Any further plans regarding the formation of the transitional government or timing of elections are in the initial stages, and have not been fully discussed. ¶3. (SBU) Sylla shared one proposal of such a transitional government, which would have a six month period to draft a constitution and set up elections. The government would be comprised of a Council of National Transition (CNT) and a Government of Transition (GT). The CNT would be a 132-member body, comprised of Forces Vives-appointed representatives from the political and commercial sectors. They would create a new constitution, with a public referendum held to adopt it. The constituion would outline election procedures, with Sylla stating that no parties would be prohibited from running (even if the CNDD were to create a new party). The GT would be comprised of a Prime Minister and other heads of government institutions. To prevent a potential "strong-man" scenario, the Prime Minister would not be allowed to run in upcoming elections. Sylla did not indicate how much support this particular proposal has at this time. ¶4. (SBU) Sylla said the Forces Vives have agreed to refuse any potential requests for amnesty by CNDD members if they give up power. Instead, it will be up to the UN Commission of Inquiry to administer charges, and the Forces Vives are unwilling to go against the rulings of an international tribunal. If another international body, such as ECOWAS or the African Union agree on amnesty for certain individuals, the Forces Vives would likely accept their ruling, according to Sylla. ¶5. (SBU) Sylla stressed that although it is unlikely the CNDD will agree to the two demands set forth by the Forces Vives, the departure of CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara is non-nE~Q entiable. Sylla said a power sharing agreement between the CNDD and the Forces Vives is a possibility, but would be very divisive among Forces Vives ranks. He pointed to the example of Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe, highlighting how such pQmmQqCz usually succeed at first before falling into catharsis. ¶6. (SBU) Sylla was concerned about the recent investment proposal by a Chinese investment firm to grant Guinea 7 billion USD in funds over the next 5 years for reconstruction and development projects. While Guinea has only received 100 million USD of funds from China so far, the potential remains that with these funds, the CNDD will be able to withstand international sanctions and trade restrictions. Such a scenario would weaken the Forces Vives position. ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT. While the Forces Vives seem to be maintaining a unified position in terms of their demands for Dadis to step down in favor of a transitional government, their unity is tenuous as best, and likely to last only as long as they have a common enemy. If they are able to dissolve the CNDD, they will almost immediately have to deal with the key issues on which they have been unable to come to an agreement for the past ten months, including election timing and electoral reform. In addition, they are going to have to address the very divisive question of who is actually going to lead the transition government. The anti-Dadis unity is only a few months old, and while they may agree on the need for Dadis' departure, other critical transition issues are likely to generate a heated debate. END COMMENT.UQQ+h oller