FORCES VIVES PRESENT UNIFIED FRONT IN MEDIATION

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000703 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC ECON EFIN GV PGOV PREL SUBJECT: FORCES VIVES PRESENT UNIFIED FRONT IN MEDIATION TALKS ¶1. SUMMARY: As negotiations proceed in Ouagadougou, Conakry is abuzz with reports and rumors, and conjectures surrounding the latest developments. The following cable is based on what we are picking up in Conakry from better-informed press reports, as well as contacts within the Forces Vives. Highlights include demands by the Forces Vives for Dadis to step down and the establishment of a six-month transition governing council. Despite rumors to the contrary, the Forces Vives claim to be united. END SUMMARY. ¶2. On November 3, mediation on the Guinean political crisis began in Ouagadougou between Guinean opposition forces, under the name of the Forces Vives, and Burkina Faso President Blaise Compaore. Compaore, acting as mediator in the talks, asked the Forces Vives to present concrete propositions in order to make progress in the negotiations. After meeting with leaders of the Forces Vives, Compaore will meet with representatives of the CNDD next week to discuss the proposals and construct a plan of action for Guinea. ¶3. Despite concerns about a division within the Forces Vives ranks, members agreed on two main points to present to Compaore. The first point asks for the construction of a six month transitional body to govern Guinea until elections can be held. The second point demands the dissiloution of the CNDD, and for Dadis to step down from power. Until these first two points are met, the Forces Vives will refuse to cooperate with the CNDD on further negotiations. ¶4. News of the exclusion of certain Forces Vives leaders, as well as statements made by members to the press, created the illusion that the Forces Vives are splintering. NFD President Mouctar Diallo, one of Guinea's most prominent opposition figures, was initially barred entry to the negotiations, which further increased talks of a division. He was later granted access to the talks when an administrative error was recognized. Diallo said that despite the initial set back, the Forces Vives position is unified behind leaders Alpha Conde, president of the RPG, and Sidya Toure, president of the UFR, both prominent opposition party leaders. ¶5. (SBU) The two largest obstacles towards a united front for the Forces Vives position have been former Guinean Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate and prominent Guinean businessman Mamadou Sylla. Kouyate is accused of supporting Mohamar Kaddafi's mediation initiative for Guinea, while Sylla is rumored to be an ally of the CNDD. Alpha Conde met with Kouyate in an attempt to resolve any misunderstanding, which is a significant act considering both leaders have a long history of political rivalry. Because Sylla announced his resignation from the Forces Vives months ago, his input into the talks is seen as marginal at best. ¶6. (SBU) Former Prime Minister Francois Fall, president of the UPG party and another significant political actor, has a history of issuing pro-Dadis statements, arguing that his leadership as president is essential for mediation talks to succeed. The CNDD and CNDD-controlled media have sought to exploit these statements in order to create further divisions within the Forces Vives. However, several Forces Vives leaders stress that Fall's opinions are his own and do not reflect the general will of the entire group. ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT. While topics such as election scheduling and candidate eligibility remain points of contention, the Forces Vives seem united behind their demands for Dadis to step down, and for the creation of a transitional government. In Guinea, numerous groups are highly engaged in placing pressure on the Force Vives delegation to come to a firm agreement. Chief among these groups is the Women of the Forces Vives, created in the aftermath of the September 28 violent attacks on women. They have threatened that if the Forces Vives are not able to come to an agreement, they will withdraw their support and form their own group, committed to the dissolution of the CNDD. Any cohesion among the Forces Vives members is dependant upon both the CNDD and Dadis agreeing to honor the demands set forth, a fact that even the most optimistic of members agree is unrealistic at this point. END COMMENT. Moller