OCT 30 SITUATION REPORT FOR GUINEA

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000694 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EFIN GV SUBJECT: OCT 30 SITUATION REPORT FOR GUINEA REF: A. CONAKRY 0655 -------------- YOUTH LEADER ARRESTED -------------- ¶1. A hunger strike began October 28, led by the Federation of Guinean Youth Organizations (FOJEG),which is associated with youth leader Thierno Balde. The strike was in protest of the September 28 massacre. Immediately after the call for a hunger strike, the GoG responded by arresting several of the FOJEG youth leaders, including Thierno Balde, and taking them to Camp Alpha Yaya. They were released in the early morning of October 30, after having reportedly been beaten while in detention. In a meeting with the Foreign Minister October 30 (septel to follow) Charge raised concerns over the detention of Balde and other youth leaders. An Embassy officer will meet with Balde on November 1. -------------- TROUBLE BREWING IN THE MARKETS -------------- ¶2. The informal exchange rate continues to rise following the events of September 28. The official exchange rate remains around 5000 GNF to the dollar, but the informal exchange rate is much higher at 5950, and will likely continue to rise. Although the informal market has been affected by growing insecurity in Conakry, the exchange rate increase is most likely linked to the CNDD's recent extensive infusion of Guinean Francs into the economy (reftel A) In an effort to keep the informal exchange rate under control, several military units reportedly raided informal foreign exchange stands in Conakry's largest market last week, demanding that they sell at the government's recognized official exchange rate. ¶3. Since September 28, insecurity along Guinea's trucking routes and ports has decreased staple food supplies and increased commodity prices. The price of a 50 kilo bag of rice has risen from 155M GNF (32 USD) in September to 185M GNF (38 USD),bags of sugar from 185M GNF (38 USD) to 245M GNF (51 USD),and 20L of vegetable oil from 130M GNF (27 USD) to 155M GNF (32 USD). According to a local food importer, current rice reserves will only accommodate demand for another two months at current import levels. With continued security concerns, Conakry residents fear possible food shortages in the near future. -------------- NEW MINISTERS APPOINTED BY CNDD -------------- ¶4. Several new appointments were made by the CNDD to replace Ministers who previously resigned or passed away. New appointments include: --Minister of Decentralization and Local Development, Mariame Sylla. Sylla is a newcomer on the political scene, formerly Deputy Director for Political Affairs at the Ministry of Territorial Administration. --Minister of Information and Culture, Cheick Fanta Mady Conde. Conde is a professional journalist and former Head of Communication of the National Independent Electoral Commission. --Minister of Labor, Administrative Reform, and Civil Service, Louis Bemba Soumah. Soumah is an influential member of the Guinean Teacher's Union. --Minister of Agriculture and Animal Farming, Colonel Boureima Conde. Conde is a core CNDD member. No former Ministers of the previous regime were appointed, with only the Minister of Agriculture originating from among the CNDD ranks. The appointment of Soumah as Minister of Labor is a sign that the CNDD is trying to win favor with the unions, particularly the teachers unions. Moller