GUINEA ROUNDUP: OCTOBER 16

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000665

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI ASEC GV
SUBJECT: GUINEA ROUNDUP: OCTOBER 16

REF: A. CONAKRY 00655

B. CONAKRY 00584

Classified By: ECONOFF BRIANA WARNER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (U) Late last night, the CNDD issued a communique ending
the ban on political demonstrations in Guinea. The statement
encouraged Guineans to strictly comply with current anti-riot
laws and to give priority to "national unity and social
tranquillity" over political messaging. The statement claimed
that the CNDD lifted the ban in accordance with their strong
commitment to promoting freedom of expression and democracy.




2. (SBU) Some Guineans suspect the release was issued to
allow pro-CNDD groups to demonstrate openly, which is rumored
to take place downtown today. A group of pro-CNDD
demonstrators are reportedly planning to assemble around the
ECOWAS, African Union, and United Nations offices today to
protest international intervention in Guinean affairs. The
CNDD is encouraging pro-CNDD demonstrations by distributing
money throughout the different sympathetic neighborhoods of
Conakry. Apparently the money that is being handed out is all
newly printed (reftel A).



3. (SBU) Embassy also received reports that the Minister of
Youth, Fodeba Isto Keira, and his staff have been traveling
around to the cities of Lower Guinea and the neighborhoods of
Conakry to rally youth support for Dadis. He has apparently
asked several youth groups in these areas to propose budgets
for the CNDD to transport their members to the Palais du
Peuple on October 18. Keira told youth groups that there will
be a pro-Dadis rally at the Palais on Sunday morning, after
which the youth groups are expected to disperse to the UN,
EU, and ECOWAS headquarters as well as the US and French
Embassies to protest international intervention. The
partcipants were promised cash in turn for their
participation. Members of the youth groups around the US
Embassy apparently rejected invitations to participate in
these marches, and said that they may stage their own march
in support of US policy at the US Embassy on Sunday.


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TWO MORE CIVILIANS LEAVE THE GOG
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4. (U) In another form of protest, the Advisor to the
President for Communications, Abdoulaye Conde, and the
Minister of Communications, Justin Morel Jr., both resigned
last night. Former journalists, the men cited the September
28 massacre and subsequent human rights abuses as the
catalysts for their resignation. In his letter of
resignation, Conde wrote that he is disappointed by the
CNDD's failure to respect the rule of law, promotion of
democracy, freedom, and human rights. He also encouraged
Dadis to respect democracy so that his grand children, "in
fifty or one hundred years, are seen as the descendants of
the person who introduced real democracy to Guinea." Morel,
who is widely considered a close confident to Dadis, used his
resignation letter to distance himself from the events of
September 28 by noting that he was in Germany when the
massacre took place. Conde and Morel represent the third and
fourth civilians who have resigned from the government in the
past four days.


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RUSSIA AND CHINA DISCUSS OPTIONS
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5. (C) During a G-8 meeting on October 15, the Russian
Ambassador to Guinea told diplomats that he and the Chinese
Ambassador were convoked to Camp Alpha Yaya at 2200 on
October 14. Cece Loua, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and
Dadis told the two diplomats that they were concerned about
the possibility of sanctions against the regime and asked for
their support within the UN Security Council. The Russian
Ambassador told Charge that the Chinese hinted that Dadis
would have their support in the UNSC, although he didn't
explain the Russian response.


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CONAKRY 00000665 002 OF 002


COMMENT
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6. (SBU) Though it is likely that the civilian resignations
are rooted in part to a moral objection to the September 28
massacre, it is also likely that the threat of international
visa sanctions and criminal investigations are prompting
civilians to distance themselves from the junta regime,
indicating that international pressure is having some effect.
BROKENSHIRE