GUINEA ROUNDUP: OCTOBER 16

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000665 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI ASEC GV SUBJECT: GUINEA ROUNDUP: OCTOBER 16 REF: A. CONAKRY 00655 ¶B. CONAKRY 00584 Classified By: ECONOFF BRIANA WARNER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (U) Late last night, the CNDD issued a communique ending the ban on political demonstrations in Guinea. The statement encouraged Guineans to strictly comply with current anti-riot laws and to give priority to "national unity and social tranquillity" over political messaging. The statement claimed that the CNDD lifted the ban in accordance with their strong commitment to promoting freedom of expression and democracy. ¶2. (SBU) Some Guineans suspect the release was issued to allow pro-CNDD groups to demonstrate openly, which is rumored to take place downtown today. A group of pro-CNDD demonstrators are reportedly planning to assemble around the ECOWAS, African Union, and United Nations offices today to protest international intervention in Guinean affairs. The CNDD is encouraging pro-CNDD demonstrations by distributing money throughout the different sympathetic neighborhoods of Conakry. Apparently the money that is being handed out is all newly printed (reftel A). ¶3. (SBU) Embassy also received reports that the Minister of Youth, Fodeba Isto Keira, and his staff have been traveling around to the cities of Lower Guinea and the neighborhoods of Conakry to rally youth support for Dadis. He has apparently asked several youth groups in these areas to propose budgets for the CNDD to transport their members to the Palais du Peuple on October 18. Keira told youth groups that there will be a pro-Dadis rally at the Palais on Sunday morning, after which the youth groups are expected to disperse to the UN, EU, and ECOWAS headquarters as well as the US and French Embassies to protest international intervention. The partcipants were promised cash in turn for their participation. Members of the youth groups around the US Embassy apparently rejected invitations to participate in these marches, and said that they may stage their own march in support of US policy at the US Embassy on Sunday. -------------- TWO MORE CIVILIANS LEAVE THE GOG -------------- ¶4. (U) In another form of protest, the Advisor to the President for Communications, Abdoulaye Conde, and the Minister of Communications, Justin Morel Jr., both resigned last night. Former journalists, the men cited the September 28 massacre and subsequent human rights abuses as the catalysts for their resignation. In his letter of resignation, Conde wrote that he is disappointed by the CNDD's failure to respect the rule of law, promotion of democracy, freedom, and human rights. He also encouraged Dadis to respect democracy so that his grand children, "in fifty or one hundred years, are seen as the descendants of the person who introduced real democracy to Guinea." Morel, who is widely considered a close confident to Dadis, used his resignation letter to distance himself from the events of September 28 by noting that he was in Germany when the massacre took place. Conde and Morel represent the third and fourth civilians who have resigned from the government in the past four days. -------------- RUSSIA AND CHINA DISCUSS OPTIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) During a G-8 meeting on October 15, the Russian Ambassador to Guinea told diplomats that he and the Chinese Ambassador were convoked to Camp Alpha Yaya at 2200 on October 14. Cece Loua, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Dadis told the two diplomats that they were concerned about the possibility of sanctions against the regime and asked for their support within the UN Security Council. The Russian Ambassador told Charge that the Chinese hinted that Dadis would have their support in the UNSC, although he didn't explain the Russian response. -------------- CONAKRY 00000665 002 OF 002 COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Though it is likely that the civilian resignations are rooted in part to a moral objection to the September 28 massacre, it is also likely that the threat of international visa sanctions and criminal investigations are prompting civilians to distance themselves from the junta regime, indicating that international pressure is having some effect. BROKENSHIRE