GUINEANS WATCHING INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CLOSELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000661 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ASEC ECON GV SUBJECT: GUINEANS WATCHING INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CLOSELY Classified By: ECONOFF BRIANA WARNER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: As quiet continues, Guinea's socio-political leaders consider options in the face of CNDD determination to stay in power. International pressure from the AU, ECOWAS, EU and the US is a major factor in determining what steps local actors are prepared to take in opposing the military junta. The Forces Vives, which includes labor unions, is reportedly waiting for the AU's October 17 deadline to pass before taking further action, while the military called a meeting at Camp Alpha Yaya this morning. Two civilian ministers have stepped down in the past three days and the Prime Minister has suggested that he may follow suit, possibly signaling that international pressure is beginning to worry government actors. END SUMMARY. -------------- - FORCES VIVES ADDRESSES INTERNATIONAL DEADLINES -------------- - ¶2. (C) Key members of the Forces Vives spent the weekend in Abuja where they addressed the International Contact Group (ICG),and individually courted international support to oppose the CNDD. Separate Forces Vives press releases commended the ICG's final communique and pressed for the immediate cessation of human rights abuses as well as the resignation of the CNDD. In their effort to ensure international solidarity against the CNDD, the Forces Vives is reportedly sending envoys from the Guinean Diaspora to speak to representatives of the Chinese and Libyan governments. Members of the Forces Vives apparently fear that that Chinese and Libyan support for the military junta could undermine international efforts to encourage Dadis and the CNDD to relinquish power. Contacts are respecting the October 17 AU deadline for the CNDD to announce that no member of the current government will run for office in the upcoming elections, after which they are considering launching a series of demonstrations to increase pressure on Dadis. ¶3. (C) Guinea's labor unions, who executed a peaceful "ville morte" on October 12 and 13, are also apparently waiting for the AU deadline before launching a more comprehensive strike. According to contacts within the unions, the groups are planning on ordering an "indefinite" country-wide strike if Dadis does not comply with AU demands by Sunday. -------------- CIVILIAN MINISTERS RESIGN -------------- ¶4. (U) Two days after the resignation of Minister of Agriculture Abdulrahmane Sano, Alpha Abdulaye Diallo stepped down from his position as Minister of Labor. A Peuhl (Fulani),Diallo cited the attacks on innocent civilians on September 28 as the basis for his resignation. ¶5. (C) Guinea's Prime Minister, Kabine Komara, announced yesterday on BBC radio that he may step down from power as well, "if it is in the best interest of Guinea." Komara, who is widely seen as a marginalized and ineffective member of the government, has threatened stepping down before, most notably when Dadis publicly berated the Prime Minister in May. -------------- International Criminal Court -------------- ¶6. (C) The International Criminal Court confirmed on October 14 that it was opening a preliminary investigation into the September 28 massacre in Conakry. Members of the Forces Vives immediately commended this decision and said that they hope to see those responsible for the event brought to justice. Sources within Camp Alpha Yaya said that the announcement prompted the CNDD to call an "all hands" General Assembly meeting at the camp, although other contact report varying reasons for the meeting, the outcome of which is still pending. CONAKRY 00000661 002 OF 002 -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) The almost universally tough message from the international community appears to have galvanized Guinea's opposition. At the same time, the Forces Vives has threatened several demonstrations since September 28, which have not materialized. While the commitment is there, people are also worried about more violence. The Forces Vives, labor unions, opposition parties, and the CNDD itself are watching the international community closely as they strategize about next steps to take. BROKENSHIRE