CONAKRY REMAINS TENSE, BUT RETURNS TO NORMAL LEVEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000627 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV SUBJECT: CONAKRY REMAINS TENSE, BUT RETURNS TO NORMAL LEVEL OF ACTIVITY REF: A. CONAKRY 0624 ¶B. CONAKRY 0625 Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (U) After three days of general calm, Conakry appears to have returned to a normal level of activity. The political atmosphere remains tense, but shops are open, gas is available, and traffic is circulating at normal levels. The American school remains closed, largely in accordance with the Embassy's continued closure. The French school is also closed. ¶2. (C) Embassy contacts seem to have turned from talks of protests and demonstrations to discussions of how to constructively move the transition forward. There is a growing sense that people are afraid to continue with protest activity for fear of sparking another violent backlash at the hands of the military. People may be viewing the visits of Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore and AF Deputy Assistant Secretary William Fitzgerald as positive indications that international intervention is soon to follow. However, the visitors' messages are fundamentally different. Compaore is expected to push for dialogue while Fitzgerald has made it clear that the USG expects Dadis to step down and leave the country (reftels). ¶3. (SBU) Compaore met with representatives of Les Forces Vives yesterday. The Forces Vives planned to tell Compaore that they are not interested in pursuing dialogue at this point since it is their position that the September 28 violence makes it impossible to negotiate with the junta. For Les Forces Vives, the only solution is for the junta to step down. At the same time, some contacts are suggesting that the Forces Vives may be starting to realize that they are at a dangerous impasse. The Forces Vives are meeting October 6 to discuss how they want to react to Compaore's recommendations. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) A number of Embassy opposition contacts seem to be speaking with increasingly measured voices as they seek a solution to the current political impasse. Passionate statements about retribution and calls for descending into the streets in protests, which were common last week, are waning. At the same time, political tension remains palpable. Opposition leaders are hopeful that an international peacekeeping force of some sort will intervene to restore security and neutralize the junta. It is not yet clear whether there is adequate support for this idea. Dadis and the junta are dead set against it. Meanwhile, people are waiting to see how things play over the next few days, as Guineans process the USG and ECOWAS messages. END COMMENT BROKENSHIRE