CONAKRY REMAINS TENSE, BUT RETURNS TO NORMAL LEVEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000627

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CONAKRY REMAINS TENSE, BUT RETURNS TO NORMAL LEVEL
OF ACTIVITY

REF: A. CONAKRY 0624

B. CONAKRY 0625

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (U) After three days of general calm, Conakry appears to
have returned to a normal level of activity. The political
atmosphere remains tense, but shops are open, gas is
available, and traffic is circulating at normal levels. The
American school remains closed, largely in accordance with
the Embassy's continued closure. The French school is also
closed.


2. (C) Embassy contacts seem to have turned from talks of
protests and demonstrations to discussions of how to
constructively move the transition forward. There is a
growing sense that people are afraid to continue with protest
activity for fear of sparking another violent backlash at the
hands of the military. People may be viewing the visits of
Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore and AF Deputy Assistant
Secretary William Fitzgerald as positive indications that
international intervention is soon to follow. However, the
visitors' messages are fundamentally different. Compaore is
expected to push for dialogue while Fitzgerald has made it
clear that the USG expects Dadis to step down and leave the
country (reftels).


3. (SBU) Compaore met with representatives of Les Forces
Vives yesterday. The Forces Vives planned to tell Compaore
that they are not interested in pursuing dialogue at this
point since it is their position that the September 28
violence makes it impossible to negotiate with the junta.
For Les Forces Vives, the only solution is for the junta to
step down. At the same time, some contacts are suggesting
that the Forces Vives may be starting to realize that they
are at a dangerous impasse. The Forces Vives are meeting
October 6 to discuss how they want to react to Compaore's
recommendations.

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COMMENT
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4. (SBU) A number of Embassy opposition contacts seem to be
speaking with increasingly measured voices as they seek a
solution to the current political impasse. Passionate
statements about retribution and calls for descending into
the streets in protests, which were common last week, are
waning. At the same time, political tension remains
palpable. Opposition leaders are hopeful that an
international peacekeeping force of some sort will intervene
to restore security and neutralize the junta. It is not yet
clear whether there is adequate support for this idea. Dadis
and the junta are dead set against it. Meanwhile, people are
waiting to see how things play over the next few days, as
Guineans process the USG and ECOWAS messages. END COMMENT
BROKENSHIRE