A CALM WEEKEND IN CONAKRY, SMALL-SCALE PROTESTS

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000619

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ASEC ECON SOCI GV
SUBJECT: A CALM WEEKEND IN CONAKRY, SMALL-SCALE PROTESTS
POSSIBLE TODAY


1. (U) Guinea was calm over the weekend, with no reports of
disturbances in Conakry or the interior. Many people in
Conakry took advantage of the relative calm to restock on
food items and other necessary goods, though economic and
social activity was more subdued than usual.


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GAS SHORTAGES
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2. (U) Gas shortages continue to affect the country's
transportation and business infrastructure. Hundreds of cars
queued at Conakry's gas stations this weekend, in
anticipation of fuel deliveries that never came. The security
contractor for a mining interest noted that Total and Shell,
the two gas companies in Guinea, contract to Guinean trucking
companies owned by Peuhl (Fulani) businessmen. Many of these
operators have chosen to withhold gas deliveries as a form of
protest.



3. (U) Bechtel, an American engineering and construction
firm, decided to temporarily evacuate some staff at the
Guinea Alumina mine due to the country's gas situation.
Bechtel officials said on Saturday that they plan on keeping
their leadership at the construction site, but will be
sending most of their technical staff out of the country
today. Many of the country's mining companies have
temporarily seized operations since September 28, and are
reportedly struggling to maintain sufficient fuel levels for
operation.



4. (U) Internal transportation is becoming increasingly
difficult for average Guineans, making commodity prices spike
and fresh produce difficult to obtain in Conakry. The city's
large markets remained shuttered this weekend. Several
business people reported that their suppliers in the interior
are unable to deliver products to the city due to both the
fuel shortages and their fear of increasing make-shift check
points run by the military. Excess stocks in the interior are
reportedly laying to waste -- awaiting delivery to Conakry
and surrounding populations.


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MISSING BODIES
--------------



5. (U) Embassy received reports over the weekend that some 14
dead bodies washed up onto Guinea's shores near its border
with Sierra Leone. Although these reports have not yet been
verified, the stories are adding to Guinean anger over
missing victims of the September 28 attacks. Several contacts
have expressed their grave concern over these reports and
noted that such stories are aggravating the already tense
situation.


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ECOWAS NEGOTIATOR
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6. (SBU) On Saturday, ECOWAS chose Burkinabe President Blaise
Campaore to act as mediator between the CNDD and the Force
Vives. Several members of the Forces Vives noted that they
are not interested in further discussions with the CNDD. They
also believe that the nomination of Campaore, who himself
took power in a military coup, may send the wrong message to
Dadis. They agreed to hold a private meeting with Campaore
today at 3pm to discuss their demands and decide whether they
will accept his nomination. Sources within the Forces Vives
say that they expect that Campaore will be rejected by the
group. DAS William Fitzgerald and Charge Kent Brokenshire are
scheduled to meet with the Forces Vives at 1200 today. They
will also join the local contact group in a meeting with
Campaore at 1430.


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POSSIBLE PROTESTS
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7. (SBU) Embassy received reports that several youth groups
plan to stage a series of protests today starting around 9am.
Apparently the youth groups from the Matoto neighborhood are
disappointed that they did not organize a formidable protest
at the end of last week. As such, they plan to use today to
show their solidarity with the youth groups in other
neighborhoods.


8. (SBU) Family members of victims of the September 28
attacks are planning to march on Camp Alpha Yaya to demand
the return of missing bodies. They will reportedly be joined
by several women's groups protesting the violation of women
at the stadium last Monday. (COMMENT: The Embassy received
several reports of such marches last week, many of which were
easily dispersed by police well before getting to the camp.
END COMMENT) Though there are still rumors of a general
strike, no organized order from the unions has been issued.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: Though Conakry remains tense, no
large-scale protests are yet planned for the week. The
outcome of the Force Vives' meeting with Campaore will most
likely set the tone for any possible demonstrations later
this week. Even if there is no organized movement, the gas
shortage could cause a de facto strike throughout the country.
BROKENSHIRE