PROTESTS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW IN CONAKRY

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000611 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC ECON PHUM PREL PGOV SOCI GV SUBJECT: PROTESTS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW IN CONAKRY ¶1. (U) As of 1300, the situation in Conakry is outwardly calm with only small disturbances in the neighborhoods of Cosa, Hamdallaye, and Bambeto where there is sporadic gunfire and small-scale demonstrations. Most of the interior also remains quiet, though there is low-level agitation in the northern cities of Mamou and Labe. ¶2. (SBU) There are no wide-scale demonstrations planned for today, as it is being treated as a national day of mourning. However, youth contacts and political activists are reporting that they are planning a "Red March" for tomorrow morning. Apparently several groups comprised of injured victims, victim's families, and politically active youth are planning to launch a city-wide demonstration tomorrow where they will all wear red clothing, to symbolize the dead, and demand the bodies back from the military. If they are not allowed to march, the groups plan to initiate peaceful neighborhood sit-ins. The Red March is being organized through SMS messaging throughout the city. Several contacts have received it, including non-Guineans in the business community. ¶3. (SBU) Sources within the business community and the Forces Vives have indicated that the major labor unions will initiate a nation wide strike, effective Monday, October 5. According to sources within the unions, they plan to keep the strike in affect "until Dadis steps down from power." The unions are apparently still working out the specifics of how they will execute their campaign. ¶4. (U) Guineans flooded the small markets around Conakry this morning, as they tried to buy supplies before tomorrow's protests. However, many of the vendors remained closed, in fear of military looting and attacks. Reportedly, there was a crowd gathered at Conakry's largest market all morning, waiting for vendors to open their stands. The market women, however, expressed their concern for going out in public, in the wake of rape allegations against the military. As such, the market remains largely closed. ¶5. (U) Many gas stations remain closed, and transportation has come to a virtual halt. Gas shortages are beginning to make even short distance travel very difficult for many Guineans. This is hindering the transportation of agricultural goods, and is substantially affecting the price of the few market goods that are currently being sold. ¶6. (U) The interior remains mostly calm, though there have been small scale disturbances reported in Mamou and Labe. Businesses are still shuttered in the two cities, and there are murmurs of the Red March also spreading to those cities as well as Faranah. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) People appear to be using today as a way to prepare their households and finalize their plans for tomorrow's planned protests. The Forces Vives will be coming out with a statement within the next few hours (reftel A) that will most likely set the tone for the Red March, especially if their communique demands Dadis' immediate resignation. The Hamdallaye-Bambeto-Cosa neighborhoods remain tense (reftel B),and will most likely be flashpoints for any demonstrations taking place tomorrow. BROKENSHIRE