CONAKRY SECURITY SUMMARY - SEPTEMBER 21, 2009

S E C R E T CONAKRY 000581 SIPDIS FOR DS/IP/AF E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2029 TAGS: ASEC KDEM PGOV PREL PMIL GV SUBJECT: CONAKRY SECURITY SUMMARY - SEPTEMBER 21, 2009 REF: A. CONAKRY 545 ¶B. CONAKRY 551 ¶C. CONAKRY 552 ¶D. CONAKRY 556 ¶E. CONAKRY 557 ¶F. CONAKRY 574 ¶G. CONAKRY 577 Classified By: RSO Philip W. Nazelrod for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S) The security situation in Guinea remains calm. The last two weeks witnessed a visit of two Heads of State, the threat of a counter-coup and mass protests, and the conclusion of Ramadan. The following serves as a summary of significant security-related events from September 4 - 20, ¶2009. -------------- An Announcement To Come...? -------------- ¶2. (C) CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara (Dadis) privately announced his candidacy for Guinea,s presidency during a meeting with the International Contact Group for Guinea (ICG-G). To date, Dadis has not officially announced his candidacy to the general population although several media outlets have reported his intentions. Despite the lack of an official announcement, many Guineans are making plans to respond. (Reftel G) -------------- Simmering -------------- ¶3. (C) On September 12, 2009, Senegalese President Wade and Liberian President Sirleaf-Johnson met with Dadis in Conakry. The results of the meeting are unclear although Dadis treated Wade and Sirleaf-Johnson to organized demonstrations stacked with supporters calling for Dadis to run for President. Of note, President Wade,s statement to Guineans irked the youth community causing key contacts to feel betrayed. (Reftel E). ¶4. (C) Leaders of youth groups opposed to Dadis, rule met with Embassy contacts and confided their concerns about (1) the security situation in Guinea and (2) fears of death squads, believed to be training near Conakry on orders of CNDD leadership. (Reftel B) ¶5. (U) September 13, 2009 saw the arrival of Cellou Dalein Diallo, the leader of the UFDG political party of which the majority of supporters are Peuhl/Fulani. Greeted by thousands of supporters, Diallo is a former Prime Minister under the Conte regime.(Reftel D). ¶6. (C) Various youth groups have voiced their intentions to demonstrate against the CNDD after Ramadan. Further, media outlets such as Aminata published on September 20 the possibility of demonstrations in Conakry on September 28 or 31 in opposition to Dadis, possible candidacy. -------------- A Bridge Too Far? -------------- ¶7. (S) Post held an EAC meeting on September 11, 2009 to discuss the security situation as it relates to a communicated counter-coup movement. While the movement appeared robust in its plans and material, no known attempts have been made to disrupt the CNDD government. Further, sources claim that Dadis has increased his night time movements in and around Conakry. (Reftel C and Septel). -------------- Kidnapping & Convocation -------------- ¶8. (U) Suspected black-market currency exchanger Habib Bah was reportedly kidnapped by men in uniform, outside a mosque in the Dixin suburb of Conakry. Found later in Kindia, Bah claimed he was held for three days and only released after paying a ransom of $100,000 USD. ¶9. (U) Oil company giant, Total SA, is one of only two fuel distributors in Guinea. The General Manager in Guinea, Benoit Gaborit, was convoked to Camp Alpha Yaya ostensibly to answer questions about Total SA,s relationship with the Conte regime. On September 16, military officers raided Total,s offices in an effort to locate Gaborit. The officers were met with resistance by Total,s local employees who, in a show of support, closed all Total gas stations in Conakry. On September 17, the gas stations were re-opened and Dadis announced that only convocations issued by the police and gendarmes are valid. (NOTE: Dadis, announcement implies the convocation issued by the military officers above was invalid and unenforceable. However, such convocations were pervasive in the early months of 2009 as military officers under Minister Claude Pivi administered a parallel and illegal court which largely targeted international companies operating in Guinea. END NOTE). -------------- Caddell -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The former Caddell construction company workers (who helped construct the NEC) continue their push for monies from Caddell Construction company. Their claims, being voiced to Caddell,s attorney in Guinea, include the demand for $9M USD for unpaid wages. One individual, claiming to be a former Caddell employee, was arrested by gendarmes after one gendarme witnessed him conducting surveillance on Mission vehicles. The Chief of Staff of the Gendarmerie, Major Balde, stated such acts by the workers are an embarrassment and illegal. Balde ordered the workers to meet with him on September 21 or 22 to end the claims once and for all. If the workers refuse or are discovered near the chancery, they will be arrested for breech of peace. (Reftel F) -------------- Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Now that Ramadan has officially concluded, the stage has been set for the demonstrations promised by such groups as Les Forces Vives and the Movement Dadis Must Leave (MDDQ). Youth groups continue to align both politically and ethnically while the Police (and Gendarmes) increase their presence at key intersections and neighborhood rallying points. ¶12. (S) Post remains alert in response to the threatened counter-coup and continues to operate with already heightened security measures in place. BROKENSHIRE