NEW VOICE EMERGING WITHIN LES FORCES VIVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000532 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV SUBJECT: NEW VOICE EMERGING WITHIN LES FORCES VIVES REF: A. CONAKRY 0514 ¶B. CONAKRY 0506 ¶C. CONAKRY 0493 Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The leader of one of Guinea's newest political parties, Aboubacar Syllah, may be playing an increasingly important role within Les Forces Vives. A journalist by trade, Syllah has been working closely with former Prime Minister Francois Fall, and has been behind some strongly worded statements made by the Forces Vives in recent weeks. He is convinced that the CNDD has no intention of relinquishing power, and is working with others to force Dadis' hand. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Political party leader Aboubacar Syllah (UFC - Union of Forces for Change) has been playing an increasingly visible role within Les Forces Vives in recent weeks. He represents the party with which former Prime Minister Francois Louceny Fall is setting up an alliance. He was also the spokesperson for Les Forces Vives when they announced their two most recent declarations, the first of which firmly stated the Forces Vives' opposition to CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara's candidacy, and the second of which announced that the Forces Vives were planning to boycott Dadis' August 31 meeting (reftels). A/DCM met with Syllah on September 2. -------------- BIO NOTES -------------- ¶3. (U) Aboubacar Syllah is a journalist by trade and owns one of Guinea's private newspapers, the "Democrat." He served as the Minister of Information in 2006 for a period of six months, during which time he claims to have signed the country's first agreements authorizing private radio stations to operate in Guinea. His father was Soussou and his mother Peuhl (Fulani). -------------- WORKING AGAINST THE EMERGING REGIME -------------- ¶4. (C) Syllah said that he never had any real interest in politics, but decided to launch his political party when it became clear that the CNDD intended to maintain its grip on power. "I felt that the Forces Vives were extremely naive, thinking they could work with a military junta to bring about democracy, and I saw that I could play a role," Syllah said. As such, he joined forces with Francois Fall (FUDEC) and officially became a member of Les Forces Vives about a month ago. ¶5. (C) According to Syllah, it is very clear that "another dictator" is taking hold in Guinea. He claimed that the current political situation is worse now than it was when the transition started, and likely to get even worse. He described Dadis' "demagogy" as typical of that of Guinea's first regime, under Sekou Toure, where leaders played with themes of patriotism and anti-imperialism to foster fear, and ultimately, support for the regime. -------------- -------------- GETTING READY FOR THE INTERNATIONAL CONTACT GROUP -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Having just come from a meeting with Les Forces Vives, in anticipation of the International Contact Group (ICG) meeting on September 3, Syllah said the Forces Vives are focused on four key issues for the meeting: the restructuring of the National Transition Council (CNT), opposition access to public and private media, free movement of political parties, and a demand for Dadis to publicly declare that he will not be a candidate in any of the upcoming elections. When A/DCM asked if Syllah thought Dadis would acquiesce to this demand, he said "we are under no illusions...the only thing left is for Dadis to declare, but we are going to make our position clear." ¶7. (SBU) Syllah emphasized the importance of the ICG meeting and commented that it was unfortunate that key opposition leaders had decided to leave the country at such an inopportune time. (COMMENT. Sidya Toure, Alpha Conde, Cellou Diallo, Lansana Kouyate, and Mouctar Diallo are all currently out of the country. END COMMENT). -------------- ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT -------------- CONAKRY 00000532 002 OF 002 ¶8. (C) In response to a question about the possibility of rising tensions between the Fulani (Peuhl) and Forestier ethnic groups, Syllah said "it would be extremely difficult to have an ethnic conflict in Guinea due to our history, our passive culture, the prevalence of interethnic marriages, and regionalization." However, Syllah said that conflict is still a very real responsibility given the current political context, but that such a conflict would likely be along the lines of pro-Dadis versus anti-Dadis, or for economic reasons (i.e. the haves versus the have nots). In the case of an economic conflict, Syllah said the conflict might look ethnic because the Fulani represent the merchant class. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Syllah claimed that he had been selected as the new official spokesperson for Les Forces Vives, replacing Jean-Marie Dore (UPG),but contacts report that the change is not official. During the ICG meeting today, Dore still spoke on behalf of Les Forces Vives. However, contacts have been increasingly unhappy with Dore and have been talking about trying to get a stronger voice out in front. Syllah may be that voice. Regardless of whether or not he officially takes on that role, he seems to have already begun to shake things up within Les Forces Vives, working closely with Francois Fall. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE