DEMORALIZED YOUTH LEADERS AFRAID THAT JUNTA IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000529

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: DEMORALIZED YOUTH LEADERS AFRAID THAT JUNTA IS
"TOO POWERFUL"

REF: CONAKRY 0489

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. According to youth contacts, Dadis and the
CNDD are successfully attracting scores of political
supporters, and using "billions of francs" to do so. At the
same time, the CNDD is using fear, among other tactics, to
paralyze the opposition. Demoralized, the youth leaders see
few options ahead, and fear that violence looms on the
horizon. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) A/DCM met separately with two of the Embassy's youth
contacts, Dansa Kourouma and Thierno Balde, on September 2
and 3. The two contacts have worked together in the past,
but have become increasingly polarized since the coup,
although they both ultimately want to see democracy take root
in Guinea. Thierno is perceived as being close to the CNDD
while Dansa has distanced himself as one of the key players
behind recent efforts to launch an anti-CNDD youth movement.

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CNDD USING MONEY AND FEAR TO ATTRACT SUPPORTERS
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3. (C) Both youth leaders seemed demoralized over recent
political developments, which was in stark contrast to
impassioned talk just a few weeks ago about an emerging,
powerful underground youth movement (reftel). Claiming that
many youth are shifting alliances and backing CNDD President
Moussa Dadis Camara, Dansa said that Guineans are ultimately
going to lose the battle because the junta is simply too
strong. "Dadis has billions of francs at his disposal and he
is distributing them right and left to buy support...we
cannot hope to compete," Dansa said.


4. (C) According to Dansa, money is the main stumbling block
for what he calls the "resistance movement," but that recent
CNDD intimidation tactics are also taking a toll. Dansa
claimed that some of his military friends had warned him that
the CNDD has already drafted a "hit list" of prominent
political and civilian leaders, which will be used to start
making arrests. "Their intent is to completely decapitate
the opposition," Dansa said. He mentioned how his own house
had been searched by the military last week and worried that
Mouctar Diallo, the youth leader of the NFD political party,
would be arrested at the airport when he returns to Guinea in
a few weeks time.


5. (C) The CNDD is also reportedly relying on "intellectual"
manipulations as well. Dansa explained that Dadis is trying
to convince the country's youth that there is a generational
struggle taking place in Guinea, and that if they do not
support Dadis (who identifies himself as a youth),they will
be left out of whatever government follows the junta.
"People are buying this argument and a good number of the
young intellectuals are now supporting Dadis," Dansa said.


6. (C) In addition, Dadis reportedly uses ethnic arguments
to try and win support. Commenting on Dadis' recent
importation of thousands of youths from the Forest Region
into the capital, Dansa said the CNDD is playing off of fear
and aspiration based on ethnicity and regionalism. He
acknowledged that there is a growing divide between the
Forestiers and the Fulani, which may ultimately develop into
a struggle for power.

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LACK OF FUNDS MAY DERAIL OPPOSITION
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7. (C) Faced with what he seemed to see as nearly
insurmountable obstacles, Dansa said the main option left for
the opposition is to solicit support from the Guinean
Diaspora. He claimed that the Diaspora provided more than
500,000 Euros to opposition leaders in early 2007 to support
the nationwide labor strike that nearly forced former
President Conte out of office. "The only way we are going to
be able to fight these guys is if we can tap into that kind
of financial support again," Dansa said. He added that he
and other youth leaders, such as Mouctar Diallo, are working
to contact the Diaspora to see what can be arranged.

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CAMPAIGNING IN THE INTERIOR
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8. (C) The other strategy Dansa is considering is how to
attract the support of the youth outside the capital. Dansa

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all but said that Conakry is essentially a lost cause due to
the CNDD's successful efforts to make inroads with the youth.
However, having just returned from an eight day visit to
Upper Guinea, Dansa said most of the country's youth outside
the capital are still firmly opposed to Dadis, although
perhaps not in the Forest Region. At the same time, Dansa
said this opposition will probably not last for long as the
CNDD is already mobilizing to build support in the interior.


9. (C) According to Dansa, one of the reasons Dadis called
all of the country's mayors and CRD officials (Rural
Development Communes) to Conakry for the Monday political
rally was to facilitate an opportunity to pass resources so
that these elected officials could return to the interior and
organize events to generate support for the CNDD. (COMMENT.
Prime Minister Komara, who has been virtually invisible since
his appointment, has been widely covered in the press over
the last week for organizing a series of pro-Dadis rallies in
Upper Guinea. END COMMENT).

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LOOKING FORWARD
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10. (C) Dansa repeatedly stated that Dadis' intentions are
clear and it is only a matter of time before he declares his
candidacy. "If elections take place in this environment, we
will have already lost," Dansa said. In addition, he
expressed concern about the country's overall volatility and
the potential for violence. According to Diallo, Guinea may
be faced with an inter-ethnic conflict with the Fulani
organizing against the Forestiers. "Cellou Diallo has fought
too hard to be President...he is not going to let it go,"
Dansa said (referring to the leader of the UFDG political
party, which is widely perceived as the Fulani party).


11. (C) For the time being, Dansa said he and other youth
leaders are considering retreating into the background. "We
cannot really move right now because we do not have enough
power...if we do, they will just arrest us and it will be
over before it started." Dansa said.


12. (C) In a shorter meeting with A/DCM, Thierno Balde
echoed many of Dansa's comments. He said that there is a
high potential for violence, especially between the Fulani
and the Forestiers. According to Thierno, some arrested
soldiers are claiming that Cellou Diallo paid them to make
trouble. Thierno said he did not believe the accusation, but
that the CNDD is clearly trying to set Cellou up for arrest,
which he believed could spark an immediate backlash from
Cellou's supporters. Thierno added that former President
Conte was very shrewd about playing ethnic groups against
each other, but that Dadis is less adept at doing so.
(COMMENT. Thierno is Fulani and is well connected to the
Fulani business community. END COMMENT).

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COMMENT
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13. (C) Over the past two years, there have been several
instances where Guinea's youth have appeared to be on the
verge of a major pro-democracy movement, only to have that
movement splinter days later due to political manipulations
often linked to significant cash flows from the ruling
regime. It is as of yet unclear whether the youth have truly
fractured again to the extent Dansa claims, but there is no
question that the CNDD has been stepping up its "campaign"
efforts. Fear and money are difficult to fight in an
environment where there is no rule of law and poverty is
endemic. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE