DEMORALIZED YOUTH LEADERS AFRAID THAT JUNTA IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000529 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV SUBJECT: DEMORALIZED YOUTH LEADERS AFRAID THAT JUNTA IS "TOO POWERFUL" REF: CONAKRY 0489 Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. According to youth contacts, Dadis and the CNDD are successfully attracting scores of political supporters, and using "billions of francs" to do so. At the same time, the CNDD is using fear, among other tactics, to paralyze the opposition. Demoralized, the youth leaders see few options ahead, and fear that violence looms on the horizon. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) A/DCM met separately with two of the Embassy's youth contacts, Dansa Kourouma and Thierno Balde, on September 2 and 3. The two contacts have worked together in the past, but have become increasingly polarized since the coup, although they both ultimately want to see democracy take root in Guinea. Thierno is perceived as being close to the CNDD while Dansa has distanced himself as one of the key players behind recent efforts to launch an anti-CNDD youth movement. -------------- -- CNDD USING MONEY AND FEAR TO ATTRACT SUPPORTERS -------------- -- ¶3. (C) Both youth leaders seemed demoralized over recent political developments, which was in stark contrast to impassioned talk just a few weeks ago about an emerging, powerful underground youth movement (reftel). Claiming that many youth are shifting alliances and backing CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara, Dansa said that Guineans are ultimately going to lose the battle because the junta is simply too strong. "Dadis has billions of francs at his disposal and he is distributing them right and left to buy support...we cannot hope to compete," Dansa said. ¶4. (C) According to Dansa, money is the main stumbling block for what he calls the "resistance movement," but that recent CNDD intimidation tactics are also taking a toll. Dansa claimed that some of his military friends had warned him that the CNDD has already drafted a "hit list" of prominent political and civilian leaders, which will be used to start making arrests. "Their intent is to completely decapitate the opposition," Dansa said. He mentioned how his own house had been searched by the military last week and worried that Mouctar Diallo, the youth leader of the NFD political party, would be arrested at the airport when he returns to Guinea in a few weeks time. ¶5. (C) The CNDD is also reportedly relying on "intellectual" manipulations as well. Dansa explained that Dadis is trying to convince the country's youth that there is a generational struggle taking place in Guinea, and that if they do not support Dadis (who identifies himself as a youth),they will be left out of whatever government follows the junta. "People are buying this argument and a good number of the young intellectuals are now supporting Dadis," Dansa said. ¶6. (C) In addition, Dadis reportedly uses ethnic arguments to try and win support. Commenting on Dadis' recent importation of thousands of youths from the Forest Region into the capital, Dansa said the CNDD is playing off of fear and aspiration based on ethnicity and regionalism. He acknowledged that there is a growing divide between the Forestiers and the Fulani, which may ultimately develop into a struggle for power. -------------- LACK OF FUNDS MAY DERAIL OPPOSITION -------------- ¶7. (C) Faced with what he seemed to see as nearly insurmountable obstacles, Dansa said the main option left for the opposition is to solicit support from the Guinean Diaspora. He claimed that the Diaspora provided more than 500,000 Euros to opposition leaders in early 2007 to support the nationwide labor strike that nearly forced former President Conte out of office. "The only way we are going to be able to fight these guys is if we can tap into that kind of financial support again," Dansa said. He added that he and other youth leaders, such as Mouctar Diallo, are working to contact the Diaspora to see what can be arranged. -------------- CAMPAIGNING IN THE INTERIOR -------------- ¶8. (C) The other strategy Dansa is considering is how to attract the support of the youth outside the capital. Dansa CONAKRY 00000529 002 OF 002 all but said that Conakry is essentially a lost cause due to the CNDD's successful efforts to make inroads with the youth. However, having just returned from an eight day visit to Upper Guinea, Dansa said most of the country's youth outside the capital are still firmly opposed to Dadis, although perhaps not in the Forest Region. At the same time, Dansa said this opposition will probably not last for long as the CNDD is already mobilizing to build support in the interior. ¶9. (C) According to Dansa, one of the reasons Dadis called all of the country's mayors and CRD officials (Rural Development Communes) to Conakry for the Monday political rally was to facilitate an opportunity to pass resources so that these elected officials could return to the interior and organize events to generate support for the CNDD. (COMMENT. Prime Minister Komara, who has been virtually invisible since his appointment, has been widely covered in the press over the last week for organizing a series of pro-Dadis rallies in Upper Guinea. END COMMENT). -------------- LOOKING FORWARD -------------- ¶10. (C) Dansa repeatedly stated that Dadis' intentions are clear and it is only a matter of time before he declares his candidacy. "If elections take place in this environment, we will have already lost," Dansa said. In addition, he expressed concern about the country's overall volatility and the potential for violence. According to Diallo, Guinea may be faced with an inter-ethnic conflict with the Fulani organizing against the Forestiers. "Cellou Diallo has fought too hard to be President...he is not going to let it go," Dansa said (referring to the leader of the UFDG political party, which is widely perceived as the Fulani party). ¶11. (C) For the time being, Dansa said he and other youth leaders are considering retreating into the background. "We cannot really move right now because we do not have enough power...if we do, they will just arrest us and it will be over before it started." Dansa said. ¶12. (C) In a shorter meeting with A/DCM, Thierno Balde echoed many of Dansa's comments. He said that there is a high potential for violence, especially between the Fulani and the Forestiers. According to Thierno, some arrested soldiers are claiming that Cellou Diallo paid them to make trouble. Thierno said he did not believe the accusation, but that the CNDD is clearly trying to set Cellou up for arrest, which he believed could spark an immediate backlash from Cellou's supporters. Thierno added that former President Conte was very shrewd about playing ethnic groups against each other, but that Dadis is less adept at doing so. (COMMENT. Thierno is Fulani and is well connected to the Fulani business community. END COMMENT). -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) Over the past two years, there have been several instances where Guinea's youth have appeared to be on the verge of a major pro-democracy movement, only to have that movement splinter days later due to political manipulations often linked to significant cash flows from the ruling regime. It is as of yet unclear whether the youth have truly fractured again to the extent Dansa claims, but there is no question that the CNDD has been stepping up its "campaign" efforts. Fear and money are difficult to fight in an environment where there is no rule of law and poverty is endemic. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE