TRANSITION MEETING TURNS INTO PRO-DADIS POLITICAL

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000518

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: TRANSITION MEETING TURNS INTO PRO-DADIS POLITICAL
RALLY

REF: CONAKRY 0514


1. (SBU) CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara's meeting on
Guinea's transition went forward today as planned at the
People's Palace, although it started more than two hours late
due to Dadis' habitual tardiness. Members of Les Forces
Vives did not participate, in accordance with the group's
stated plan to boycott the meeting (reftel).


2. (SBU) Pol LES mingled with the attendees before Dadis
arrived, and observed CNDD supporters handing out hundreds of
pro-Dadis t-shirts. Security forces had reportedly been
instructed to only grant entrance to people wearing t-shirts
or carrying appropriate identification cards (i.e. members of
the diplomatic corps or government officials). An Embassy
press contact reported that one teenager, who was not wearing
a t-shirt, attempted to enter the Palace, but was blocked by
security forces who apparently threw him down the stairs.
The boy lost consciousness, causing surrounding civilians to
start yelling at the security forces "see what you are doing
again this year," referring to the violence perpetrated by
security forces in early 2007.


3. (U) Dadis spoke for approximately an hour as he danced
around the question of his candidacy. He did not make a
formal announcement, but repeatedly expounded upon his right
to run for office. The crowd frequently interrupted,
cheering "Dadis, Dadis, Dadis!" At one point, Dadis
responded by saying that he had "heard" the crowd.


4. (SBU) A number of contacts expected Dadis to formally
announce his candidacy today. In anticipation, the city was
crawling with security forces, both police and military,
while youths gathered in anticipation at key traffic
intersections. The atmosphere was tense as citizens waited
to hear what Dadis had to say. A police contact told RSO
that "there is a stink in the air."

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COMMENT
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5. (SBU) Tension was palpable in the capital today, although
the city remains calm. Businesses located in key areas
remained shuttered, traffic was light, and security personnel
were out in force. Although the meeting was billed as a
discussion of Guinea's transition, the rhetoric and general
atmosphere were obviously political. Dadis' motivations for
holding the meeting are unclear since he did not say anything
new. He may have been wanting to demonstrate popular support
for his government in order to bolster his position before
the International Contact Group meeting on Thursday. He is
likely under considerable pressure from his entourage and
members of his ethnic group (Forestiers) to declare his
candidacy. At the same time, it is increasingly clear that
many Guineans will not support another military regime, and
Dadis may be worried about sparking violence. END COMMENT.

BROKENSHIRE