TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ON ELECTIONS SUGGESTS FURTHER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000510

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ON ELECTIONS SUGGESTS FURTHER
DELAYS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. A recent discussion of technical issues
indicates that Guinea's elections may end up getting delayed
once again. A decision to add twelve new voter registration
sites abroad, which appears to be a unilateral directive from
the GoG, poses immediate technical and logistical problems.
The decision is all the more troubling since it comes just a
few days after stakeholders had agreed to accept the Ad Hoc
Committee's recommendation to conduct registration in
eighteen countries. Meanwhile, the GoG has announced that
its share of election funding has been disbursed, but
contacts report that it is still sitting in the Central Bank.
The National Transition Council (CNT) has yet to take shape
and is unlikely to do so soon since the Forces Vives has
rejected the CNT's current composition of members. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) During a routine election focal group meeting on
August 26, which focuses on the technical aspects of election
organization, several key issues were discussed. Chaired by
the UNDP Country Director, the meeting included
representatives from the EU, France, Spain, and Japan as well
as the Director of Electoral Operations for the National
Independent Electoral Commission (CENI),and the Secretary
General of the Guinean Ministry of Territorial Administration
and Political Affairs (MATAP). USAID attended on behalf of
the USG.

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WHERE'S THE MONEY?
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3. (SBU) MATAP confirmed that the GoG had already disbursed
its remaining 30 billion GnF contribution for elections to
the CENI. (COMMENT. As of August 27, contacts reported that
the funds were still sitting in the Central Bank. The GoG
continues to say that the money is available, but it is not.
END COMMENT).

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DIRECTIVE TO EXPAND DIASPORA REGISTRATION
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4. (SBU) Much of the discussion focused on the issue of
registering the Guinean Diaspora for the upcoming election,
an issue that has been on the table for months. Last week,
the Ad Hoc Committee on elections had recommended that the
CENI develop a plan for registering voters living in
seventeen foreign countries, which the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs (MFA) had approved, adding one additional site to
make the total eighteen. However, members of the focal group
seemed surprised to learn that the GoG is now planning to
conduct registration campaigns in twelve additional
countries, bringing the total number of sites up to 30.
Added countries include Mozambique, China, the Democratic
Republic of the Congo, Ghana, South Africa, Togo, Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia, Portugal, and Russia.


5. (SBU) Participants commented that the additional burden
is likely to have a significant impact on the technical
process, and ultimately, the election timeline. The CENI had
already developed a plan to conduct registration in the
previously agreed upon 18 countries, which was scheduled to
begin on September 7 and end on September 21. The remaining
32 voter registration kits were to be used for this purpose.
However, the need for campaigns at additional sites means
that a total of 68 kits will be needed. These kits are not
available in Guinea.


6. (SBU) Members of the donor community voiced concern over
this decision, which appeared to be a unilateral directive
from the GoG. The UNDP Country Director commented that the
decision will need to be approved by political parties.
Further, he said the impact of the additional sites needs to
be analyzed immediately since it is likely to delay
registration. USAID echoed these concerns, commenting that
the decision comes late in the game. He emphasized that
elections could be held without the broader participation of
Guineans abroad, as is done in many countries, because the
benefits of such an extensive registration program are
unclear when compared to the costs in terms of financial and
technical resources.


7. (SBU) The French representative raised questions about
how the decision was made while Spain questioned whether the
number of voters in these additional countries would be all
that significant. The EU said that Guinean stakeholders
should evaluate the issue with a certain degree of
pragmatism. Participants recommended that Guinean

CONAKRY 00000510 002 OF 002


stakeholders quickly evaluate the pros and cons of the
decision and present a recommendation to the CNDD to keep the
number of sites at the original level of eighteen.

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NO TRANSITION COUNCIL
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8. (SBU) The group also discussed the National Transition
Council (CNT),which is a key element of the election
timeline. Participants said the CNT is already behind
schedule as participant groups have not yet named their
representatives. (COMMENT. In the Forces Vives' August 23
declaration, the coalition rejected the CNT, claiming that
CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara had unilaterally added
names to the list. END COMMENT).

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AND NO APPROVAL OF NEW DATES
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9. (SBU) Participants noted that the CNDD had not yet issued
a decree to officially announce the new election dates
recommended by the Ad Hoc Committee, casting doubt on
political will.

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COMMENT
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10. (SBU) Completion of voter registration abroad and the
acceptance of the recommendations of the CNT are both key
elements of the adapted election timeline. The August 26
discussion indicates that these elements are already behind
schedule and if not resolved soon, may fuel arguments to push
elections back even further. The decision to add twelve
registration sites appears to be a directive from the GoG,
which has observers wondering whether or not it is a
deliberate attempt to prolong the transition. At the same
time, it may not be a done deal. The UNDP is working with
the CENI in order to demonstrate the contraints this decision
will put on the agreed upon timeline. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE