ECOWAS AND EU ENVOYS PREDICT 'MOMENT OF TRUTH' AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L CONAKRY 000507 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM GV SUBJECT: ECOWAS AND EU ENVOYS PREDICT 'MOMENT OF TRUTH' AT NEXT CONTACT GROUP MEETING REF: CONAKRY 493 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Kent C. Brokenshire for Reason 1. 4 B/D ¶1. (C) COMs representing ECOWAS and the EU presidency praised the State Department's August 20 communique which expressed disappointment that the elections scheduled for 2009 had been pushed back to 2010 and called for members of the ruling military junta not to run for elected office. In an August 24 meeting with Charge, Ambassadors Edward Aina of ECOWAS and Jesus Santos of Spain, representing Sweden's EU presidency in Conakry, said the communique sparked a reaction in the GoG (Reftel) that made clear that junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara intends to run for president. "We now clearly see Dadis' deception," said Aina. "This is overall a good development." ¶2. (C) Aina noted that the GoG reaction, which stated that Dadis and other CNDD members could run for office despite earlier assurances to the contrary, had effectively galvanized the Forces Vives against a Dadis candidacy. He added that for the first time in memory the Forces Vives appeared to be acting in a coordinated manner, issuing an August 22 communique rejecting the candidacy of any CNDD member and even referring to Dadis as 'Captain' and not President of the Republic as has been the custom. ¶3. (C) In light of these developments, both Aina and Santos predicted that the September 3-4 visit of the International Contact Group for Guinea (ICG-G) will be a critical factor in Guinea's transition. With Dadis having all but announced his candidacy for president and the Contact Group insisting that he not run for office, the stage appears to be set for a clash when the parties meet next week. "This will be the moment of truth when we must call a spade a spade," said Aina. The Spanish Ambassador added that the EU has no intention of giving in to Dadis' clear intentions to run for office. ¶4. (C) Comment: The US communique appears to have had a catalytic effect in clarifying a number of positions. The GoG's vehement reaction indicates that Dadis and the CNDD intend to use elections to legitimize their grip on power. The Forces Vives and a number of youth groups who once showed a willingness to dialogue with Dadis have made it plain that any announcement on his part to run for elections would spark a reaction that may well include demonstrations and civil disturbances. The GoG is apparently taking the threat seriously, and has reportedly ordered cell phone companies to block text messaging services after a number of texts circulated around Conakry urging the populace to take to the streets in opposition to Dadis (Septel). ¶5. (C) The CNDD is likely to employ a number of tactics to discredit the ICG-G during its upcoming visit including accusations of meddling in internal affairs, and appearances of hypocrisy for allowing the coup leader in Mauritania to run for office but not Dadis. The CNDD may also organize pro-Dadis demonstrations and use state run media to publicize the events. At the same time locally based members of the ICG-G are bracing for what many believe will be a difficult and testy session. The G-8 will meet September 1 to coordinate a common approach and prepare recommendations for the ICG-G. Embassy Conakry will work closely with the Department to support and reinforce the ICG-G's multilateral effort to advance democracy in Guinea. End Comment BROKENSHIRE