FORCES VIVES REPORTEDLY UNITED AGAINST DADIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000506

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: FORCES VIVES REPORTEDLY UNITED AGAINST DADIS

REF: CONAKRY 0500

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. According to political leader Francois
Fall, Guinea's Forces Vives are determined to prevent CNDD
President Moussa Dadis Camara from running in the upcoming
presidential elections. Coalition members are reportedly
discussing strategies for next steps while the country's
youth are becoming increasingly agitated. Fall was pleased
with the USG's August 20 press release (reftel) and hopeful
that the International Contact Group will be able to send an
equally strong message during its September 3-4 visit. Fall
was convinced that it is still possible to change Dadis' mind
and get him to back down from what many see as a decision
that will lead to chaos. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On August 26, A/DCM met with former prime minister
turned political leader Francois Louceny Fall. He had been
in touch with the Embassy over the weekend as Les Forces
Vives worked to draft its declaration responding to the GoG's
August 22 reaction to the USG's August 20 press release
(reftel). The Forces Vives' declaration unequivocally
emphasized the coalition's opposition to CNDD President
Moussa Dadis Camara as a possible presidential candidate.

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BIO NOTES
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3. (SBU) Fall returned to Guinea shortly after the December
2008 coup d'etat, launching his own political party (FUDEC)
several weeks later. Since his return, Fall has been a core
member of Les Forces Vives. He has also been working hard to
build up his party and even published a book outlining his
vision for Guinea. Fall has a distinguished diplomatic
career including postings in Paris, New York, Lagos, and
Cairo. From 2000 to 2002, Fall was Guinea's Permanent
Representative to the United Nations. Following this
assignment, he was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs, a
position he held for two years before being appointed Prime
Minister. However, Fall only held the PM position for two
months before he submitted his resignation. He reportedly
claimed that the late President Conte was blocking his reform
program. Fall is a Malinke from Kankan.


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FORCES VIVES UNITED AGAINST DADIS
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4. (C) According to Fall, members of Les Forces Vives are
completely united as to the content of their declaration,
negating rumors of dissension within the ranks. He
emphasized that all major political leaders were present
during the drafting, with the exception of UPR leader Ousmane
Bah (who was not available),and all agreed to both the
content and the force of the message. "Even Jean-Marie Dore
(UPR) agreed," Fall said, referring to Dore's growing
reputation as a go-between for Dadis.


5. (C) Fall told A/DCM: "It is absolutely clear to us that
Dadis plans to run for office and it is equally clear that we
are opposed to this idea." He commented that any election
with Dadis as a candidate would lack transparency and
credibility. Fall noted that most of the country's local
government authorities (prefects and governors) are military
personnel, many of whom are actively promoting Dadis, and
cannot be counted upon to fairly administer the election if
continued military power is a possibility. In addition, Fall
said that the CNDD is using state funds to buy political
support.


6. (C) Describing Les Forces Vives' relationship with Dadis
as a "partnership," Fall said the coalition had only
initially agreed to work with Dadis and accept a transition
plan because Dadis had assured them that the CNDD had no
interest in maintaining power, and as such, would not run for
office. "That partnership has now been broken and we are
under no further obligation," Fall said.

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STRATEGIES TO RAMP UP POLITICAL PRESSURE
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7. (C) Arguing that Les Forces Vives needs to ramp up
political pressure, Fall explained that he plans to announce
a political alliance with the UFC party (Union of Forces for
Change),which is headed by Aboubacar Syllah. According to
Fall, Forces Vives members need to more actively promote a

CONAKRY 00000506 002 OF 003


united front by declaring political alliances, thereby
demonstrating unity across ethnic lines while disabusing
Dadis of the notion that he can manipulate individuals
against each other. Within the framework of this new
political alliance, Fall said he plans to work with Syllah to
launch a media campaign calling for the CNDD to step down.


8. (C) On the question of ethnicity, Fall said that Dadis is
personally trying to recruit as many young Forestiers (Forest
tribes) as possible in order to bolster his own support. At
the same time, Guinea's political parties are notoriously
ethnocentric, which feeds into Dadis' strategy of playing
different groups off of each other. "This is why a clear
political block is so important right now...we need to put
together an alliance that can bring people together and
ultimately win an election," Fall said. He emphasized that
Syllah is of Soussou and Peuhl descent while he himself is
Malinke. "We hope to bring at least one more party into the
alliance so as to broaden the support base," Fall added.

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YOUTH ARE RILED UP, BUT UNPREDICTABLE
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9. (C) When A/DCM inquired about what Guinea's youth are up
to, Fall said that they "are absolutely ready to move." He
confirmed that they are actively organizing themselves, but
could not say when they might "attack." Fall expressed
support for the youth, but said it would be better if the
entire population could mount a movement against Dadis, so he
hoped they would wait a few more days to see what develops
out of the International Contact Group (ICG) meeting
scheduled for September 3-4. Fall stressed that if Dadis
announces his candidacy, the international community should
expect an immediate and likely violent reaction from the
youths.


10. (C) In response to a question about reactions in the
interior, Fall said he had recently returned from an
eight-day trip to several towns throughout Upper Guinea,
including Kankan. "The perception there is very simple -
they do not support Dadis and they know he is using money to
try and buy their support," Fall said. He added that the
Prefect of Siguiri, a military officer, had refused to let
him enter the town to conduct political activity.

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LOOKING TO THE INTERNATIONAL CONTACT GROUP
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11. (C) Fall expressed his appreciation of the USG's August
20 press statement and continued commitment to the democratic
process. He said that everyone is essentially waiting for
the ICG to see how the rest of the international community
reacts, and how Dadis reacts. Fall said that it is extremely
important for the ICG to send a strong message, on par with
that of the USG's.

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IT'S NOT TOO LATE
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12. (C) According to Fall, it is still possible for Dadis to
change his mind. "Between you and I, I really doubt his
mental stability," Fall said. Later, he commented that Dadis
is not former President Lansana Conte. "He (Dadis) is scared
and if we can convince him that this whole thing is a bad
idea, he will back down," Fall said.


13. (C) Fall emphasized that the most important task ahead
is ensuring a successful transition to civilian rule. "I am
not necessarily looking to be president myself," he said,
adding that what is needed is a strong leader and "if we can
find someone to lead this transition, I will happily support
him." For Fall, the most important objective is to provide a
framework within which Guinea can start to move forward
democratically.


14. (C) As the meeting came to a close, Fall said that there
are three immediate risks posed by Guinea's current political
situation. First, there is a strong possibility that the
military will react to any mass demonstrations with excessive
force. Second, Fall said it is clear that Dadis will "use
weapons to win the election." Last, Fall said that if Dadis
were to win the election, Guinea would be faced with
"perpetual political instability."

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COMMENT
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CONAKRY 00000506 003 OF 003




15. (C) Within the Forces Vives, Fall has been a strong
voice among those pushing for a quick transition. Despite
his assurances to the contrary, there is still likely some
dissension within the coalition, but Dadis' increasingly
clear intentions with respect to relinquishing power may be
the catalyst that ultimately fosters much needed unity among
socio-political actors. Dadis' reaction to the USG's press
statement has ratcheted up political tensions. Many people
seem to be focused on the ICG visit as a critical indicator
of which way things are likely to go. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE