AD HOC COMMITTEE RECOMMENDS POSTPONING ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000487

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: AD HOC COMMITTEE RECOMMENDS POSTPONING ELECTIONS
TO 2010

REF: CONAKRY 0475

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. On August 17, an Ad Hoc Committee formally
recommended that Guinea postpone its elections to early 2010,
stating that "it is impossible to hold elections in 2009."
Although members of Les Forces Vives were dissatisfied with
the decision and the way the recommendations were presented,
they have ultimately agreed to accept the Committee's
recommendation. CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara played to
the crowd, saying that he has always agreed to hold elections
in 2009, but that the matter is essentially out of his hands.
He will hold elections when the people tell him to hold
elections. Embassy believes the previous timeline was
technically feasible, despite claims to the contrary.
Embassy is consulting with G8 partners to discuss a possible
coordinated response. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara invited members of
the diplomatic corps and Les Forces Vives to RTG, the
national television/radio station, on August 17 to hear the
Ad Hoc Committee on Elections formally present its findings.
The Ambassadors of France, Spain, Russia, China, Japan,
Libya, Senegal, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and ECOWAS were
present as well as the Deputy Representative from UNDP.
A/DCM attending on behalf of the USG.

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BACKGROUND
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3. (SBU) Dadis created the Ad Hoc Committee on August 14 at
the bequest of Jean-Marie Dore, spokesperson for Les Forces
Vives, and Rabiatou Diallo, union leader and President of Les
Forces Vives (reftel). The decision was somewhat
controversial among Forces Vives members, a number of whom
felt the Committee was unnecessary. Headed by Anglican
Archbishop Monsignor Albert Gomez as facilitator, the 22
members of the Committee include eleven members from Forces
Vives, two from the CNDD, five from the Ministry of
Territorial Administration and Political Affairs (MATAP),and
four from the National Independent Electoral Commission
(CENI). The Committee was formally tasked with reviewing the
continued viability of the election timeline established in
March 2009.

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ELECTIONS IMPOSSIBLE FOR 2009
--------------


4. (U) Monsignor Gomez outlined the Committee's findings,
stating that its members had determined that "it is not
possible to hold elections in 2009." The Committee noted the
following issues as having contributed to the slow progress
towards elections: a lack of vision on the part of various
actors as to the duration and shape of the transition, the
delay in establishing the National Transition Council (CNT),
the GoG's failure to release funds for elections, the
subsequent delays for release of donor community funds linked
to the GoG funding commitments, various issues associated
with the voter registration process, and the lack of a formal
decision about the registration of Guineans abroad.


5. (U) As such, the Ad Hoc Committee recommended adapting
the current chronogram. Gomez proposed that the first round
of presidential elections be held on January 31, the second
round on February 14, and the legislative elections on March

26. The new chronogram specifies the following benchmarks:
- August: operationalization of the CNT
- September: adoption of results of the CNT's discussions
- October: publication of provisional electoral list
- November: corrections to the electoral list
- December: printing of voter cards
- January: distribution of voter cards
In addition, the Committee requested that the Guinean
Government release its remaining tranche of election funds
(between five and six million dollars) no later than August
20 and that the donor community ensure that the $22 million
administered through UNDP be available to the CENI no later
than August 30.

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ENTER THE DADIS SHOW
--------------


6. (U) Dadis, who had arrived 90 minutes late, then quietly
began what ended up being a two and a half hour speech to the
assembled group. Not surprisingly, he repeatedly emphasized

CONAKRY 00000487 002 OF 003


how he has always been willing to follow the chronogram and
hold elections in 2009. He admitted that the CNDD had
initially proposed 2010, but upon hearing the demands of Les
Forces Vives, he agreed to the 2009 timetable. Dadis
stressed that only two CNDD members had been assigned to the
Committee, which he described as deliberate restraint on his
part to ensure neutrality.


7. (U) Looking over at the diplomatic corp, he said "I ask
that the international community pay attention to what has
been said in this room...I am an honest man and I have been
true to my commitment...but now they are telling me 2010."
Dadis also spent some time berating the assembly for having
put him in such a shameful position by essentially
encouraging him to commit to a 2009 timeline, but than making
it necessary for him to go back on his word.


8. (U) As his speech dragged on, Dadis touched on many of
his favorite themes: patriotism, ethnocentrism, imperialism,
Guinea's history, his vision for Guinea's future, and his own
strength of character. He danced around the subject of his
own possible candidacy in the elections much as he has done
in the past, giving no clear indication one way or the other
except to say that he has said he will not run, but to
remember that he is a citizen and enjoys the same rights as
every other Guinean citizen. The audience responded with
laughter several times when Dadis made a joke, but the
overall applause seemed somewhat subdued relative to other
Dadis displays.


9. (U) One particularly interesting rant involved Dadis'
claim that he could have "easily" seized power at least three
different times over the past few years, but that he chose
not to because he is a patient man and unwilling to bring
about bloodshed in Guinea. "People were telling me to take
it and I could have done it, but I told them no, we must be
patient. It is up to God," Dadis said. He repeatedly
described himself as a man of wisdom and then, tongue in
cheek, invited all of the assembled political leaders to come
meet with him so he could share his wisdom with them. The
audience laughed.

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REACTION OF LES FORCES VIVES
--------------


10. (U) After Dadis finished his unprepared remarks, union
leader Serah Rabiatou Diallo took the microphone. In
careful, diplomatic language, she quietly criticized the
proceeding, stating that while Les Forces Vives appreciated
the invitation to the meeting, they would have preferred to
have an opportunity to review and discuss the Committee's
recommendations before they were publicly presented. This
statement prompted a fifteen minute, largely nonsensical rant
from Dadis. At that point, Jean-Marie Dore, spokesperson for
Les Forces Vives then stood up and said "please excuse my
colleague...she sometimes gets overexcited, but she means
well and her head is in the right place; what she meant to
say is thank you Mr. President for giving us this opportunity
to hear the results with you because of course it is your
prerogative to hear them first, as President of the Republic."


11. (U) The following day, August 18, Pol LES attended a
meeting of Les Forces Vives, which had been called to discuss
the Ad Hoc Committee's recommendations. The discussion was
heated with several political leaders (Alpha Conde, Cellou
Diallo, Mouctar Diallo, and Francois Fall) expressing their
disappointment over the fact that the Committee did not
present their findings to Les Forces Vives before taking them
to Dadis. They also were upset that the Committee had
unilaterally adjusted the timeline into 2010 and decided to
put presidential elections before legislative elections.
Despite these criticisms, Les Forces Vives eventually agreed
to accept the adjusted chronogram primarily because it seemed
to already have been accepted by Dadis. However, the
discussion was animated, with the meeting lasting most of the
day.

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COMMENT
--------------


12. (SBU) Embassy disagrees with the Committee's claims that
the election timeline was no longer viable for 2009. On a
technical level, it still would have been possible to
organize at least one election in December, if not both. The
timeline would have been tight, but doable. Furthermore, the
CENI is fully aware of this fact due to the close
collaboration between its members and the donor community.

CONAKRY 00000487 003 OF 003


In order to head off the Committee's expected decision, the
Spanish Ambassador (who is currently serving as the EU Chair
in Guinea),attempted to have the G8 meet with the CENI
President and the Secretary General of MATAP to lay down the
facts. Unfortunately, the CENI President did not show up at
all and the MATAP Secretary General was only there for a
short period of time. Information from other sources
suggests that the CENI is under considerable pressure and may
have been manipulated (septel).


13. (C) The Committee's announcement plays right into Dadis'
hands. He is now able to legitimately postpone the elections
to 2010, but can pass the blame to Guinea's socio-political
actors. Further delays are anticipated as several key
elements of the adjusted chronogram may be difficult to push
through according to schedule. For example, the new
chronogram calls for the CNT to be officially launched in
August and for its recommendations to be implemented in
September. Both of these action items depend heavily on
Dadis. If past experience is any indication, it is
unrealistic to think that these benchmarks will be reached by
the end of September. Interestingly, in his two and a half
hours of discourse, Dadis made zero reference to the GoG's
lengthy delay in disbursing long promised funds, a primary
stumbling block highlighted by the Committee.


14. (C) Charge will be meeting with members of the G8 on
August 19 to discuss the international community's reactions
to these latest developments as well as a possible plan of
action. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE