CNDD LAYING GROUNDWORK FOR PRESIDENTIAL BID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000476

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: CNDD LAYING GROUNDWORK FOR PRESIDENTIAL BID

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) Embassy has been picking up numerous indications that
CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara is laying the groundwork
for a potential announcement of his candidacy for president
in the upcoming elections, despite previous public pledges
that he would not do so. From mobilization of government
officials in the interior to new political parties and
movements, to Dadis' own statements, it is increasingly clear
that the CNDD is actively strategizing to maintain its grip
on power well into 2010, and likely beyond. General Abdoul
Aziz' election in Mauritania is being closely watched by
Guineans, and Dadis has already started drawing parallels. A
number of contacts are convinced that it is only a matter of
time before the CNDD makes its intentions known. END
SUMMARY.

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RALLYING IN THE INTERIOR
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2. (C) Alessandre Camara, youth representative to the
National Council of Civil Society Organizations (CNOSC),told
A/DCM on August 11 that a member of his NGO had recently
traveled extensively throughout Guinea's interior to gauge
public opinion with respect to elections. Camara stated that
Dadis' support among the country's young people is clearly
waning. However, he was concerned because the CNDD has
reportedly started using local government officials
(governors, prefects, and sous-prefects),most of whom are
military officers assigned immediately after the coup, to
promote the CNDD and Dadis. According to Camara, local
government officials are organizing rallies calling for Dadis
to announce his candidacy for a 2010 election.

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POLITICAL PARTIES
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3. (C) Other sources report that Dadis and the CNDD are
quietly talking behind closed doors about how they can
solidify their hold on power. Discussions have focused not
only on whether or not Dadis should run, but also on whether
it would be better to put forth a low-profile CNDD member or
someone outside the CNDD who could be used as a "puppet."


4. (C) The July launching of the PNR political party, with
its rumored connections to the CNDD (septel),may be linked
to recent CNDD political strategy discussions. One source
commented that the CNDD actually plans to create three or
four different political parties that do not appear to be
connected to each other or to the CNDD. These parties' main
objective would be to undermine the strength of the larger
opposition parties and ultimately sweep the elections by
collectively winning the majority of votes. The CNDD
reportedly thinks that by doing so, they will be able to fool
both the Guinean population and the international community,
and put their hand-picked candidate into office.

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AN EYE ON MAURITANIA
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5. (C) However, Dadis may now be starting to think that such
creative strategies are no longer necessary. General Abdoul
Aziz' election in Mauritania, and the international
community's reaction, is being closely watched by Guineans.
The "Mauritanian example" is becoming an increasingly routine
topic of discussion in meetings with contacts. During a
national press conference on August 8, Dadis said "the
international community says that it does not want a uniform
in power, but brother General Abdoul Aziz was just officially
and legally sworn into power in Mauritania." Dadis also
commented that the French Secretary of State for Cooperation,
Alain Joyandet, just visited and told Dadis he could not run
for office, but then went on to Mauritania to applaud the
swearing in of his military "brother."


6. (C) In the same August 8 press conference, Dadis made
some pointed statements about his potential candidacy: "Many
think that I am afraid to announce my candidacy. I want to
make it clear. If the people ask me to run for president, I
will satisfy their request. The people have not asked me
yet. If I want to be a candidate, I will be. No one can
prevent me from being a candidate. The international
community cannot prevent me from doing it."

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DADIS MUST STAY

CONAKRY 00000476 002 OF 002


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7. (C) Although Dadis is increasingly unpopular, he does
have a certain following. A new, allegedly grassroots,
pro-Dadis movement has recently taken off, calling itself the
Movement Dadis Must Stay (MDDR). The group met with
Commandant Moussa Keita, Permanent Secretary of the CNDD, at
the People's Palace on August 12 in order to describe its
agenda. Alie Maneh, President of the MDDR, reportedly told
Keita that the MDDR is the parent-body of several
associations sharing a common objective - the continued
leadership of Dadis beyond 2010, with or without elections.
The MDDR is opposed to holding elections in 2009 and says it
will actively support Dadis' candidacy in any upcoming
elections. Keita reportedly promised to work with the MDDR
to help Dadis realize his vision for Guinea. (COMMENT. MDDR
leader Alie Maneh is a member of former Prime Minister
Lansana Kouyate's PEDN party, which is actively pushing to
postpone elections to 2010. END COMMENT).


8. (SBU) Incidentally, Commandant Keita has also been making
regular trips into the interior of the country, reportedly to
generate support for Dadis. While in N'Zerekore last month,
he said "Dadis or Death." In order to hold the August 12
meeting with the MDDR, Keita apparently bumped a meeting that
Les Forces Vives were planning to hold in the same room,
despite the fact that it had been scheduled well in advance.

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AND OTHER COUNTER FORCES
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9. (U) In addition to the MDDR, Guinea has recently
witnessed the creation of the "Bloc of Patriotic Forces,"
which is reportedly spearheaded by former Prime Minister
Lansana Kouyate. Claiming to encompass some twenty different
political parties and civil society organizations, the Bloc
is presenting itself as an alternative to Les Forces Vives.
During a July 29 meeting at the People's Palace with the same
Commandant Keita mentioned above, the Bloc's spokesperson
said: "We...solemnly denounce the anti-democratic practices
of...Les Forces Vives for its past attempts to try and speak
on behalf of all the components of Guinea's political class."
The speaker went on to state that the 2009 timeline for
elections is unrealistic and suggested that elections be
rescheduled for 2010.


10. (U) Commandant Keita responded to the MDDR's statements
by saying that Dadis was "not aware of these realities and
all these secret negotiations," emphasizing that the CNDD
must reflect the will of the people.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) This is not the first time Dadis has alluded to his
possible candidacy, but he seems to be getting bolder.
Whether or not the CNDD is actually willing to put Dadis
forth as a candidate is debatable, but it is almost certain
that key CNDD members are looking at how they can consolidate
their hold on power for the long term. Key contacts are
convinced that it is only a matter of time before the CNDD's
intentions are made clear. Commandant Keita's name seems to
surface often, suggesting that he may be linked to some of
these pro-Dadis movements/initiatives. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE