YOUTH LEADER DISCUSSES OPTIONS TO FORCE THE CNDD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000473 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV SUBJECT: YOUTH LEADER DISCUSSES OPTIONS TO FORCE THE CNDD OUT OF POWER REF: CONAKRY 0464 Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In sharing his perspective on Guinea's political situation, a prominent youth leader discussed waning support for Dadis, talk of a national action plan, and options for pressuring the CNDD out of power if the transition process fails. Although he is still focused on the civilian mechanisms in place, Contact indicated that more forceful action may be necessary. He likened the current situation to the lead up to the 2007 violence and said that if necessary, civilian actors would consider a similar escalation of events - public declarations and peaceful marches eventually leading to a nationwide strike where all citizens stay home and the country shuts down. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) In a meeting with A/DCM on August 11, Alessande Camara, official youth representative to the National Council of Civil Society Organizations, discussed his views on the current political environment. Prominent among the youth activists during the national labor strike in 2007, Camara started his own NGO shortly after the movement succeeded in putting in a consensus government under former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate. He has been working closely with Dansa Kourouma (REFTEL) to establish a national youth network of informed, civic leaders. Camara is also one of the members of the Ad Hoc Committee reviewing the transition process. -------------- WANING YOUTH SUPPORT FOR DADIS -------------- ¶3. (C) Camara described how much of the country's youth were initially very supportive of CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara and the military-led transition. He admitted that he too had a lot of confidence in the CNDD in the beginning and was working closely with Dadis on transition-related issues. "One morning, Dadis called us to a meeting at 2AM and told us that he needed our support, that the youths needed to support him because he was facing too many sanctions from the international community," Camara said. Camara reportedly told Dadis that he and others would be willing to support him as long as he stayed true to the transition, but emphasized that they would not simply "wear t-shirts and beat drums," and that they didn't want vehicles or money. ¶4. (C) Camara told A/DCM that he wanted Dadis to understand that he could not expect the kind of blind support from the youths that former President Conte often enjoyed. However, it became increasingly evident that the trajectory of the transition was changing, at which point Camara said he and other youth leaders began to distance themselves from Dadis and the CNDD. "There was a lot of enthusiasm in the beginning, but now the egg has started to crack," he said. ¶5. (C) According to Camara, support for Dadis is also waning among youths in the interior. One of his colleagues had recently returned from what Camara called a "scouting mission," and reported that many youths are refusing to participate in pro-Dadis discussions and rallies organized by local government officials. -------------- A NATIONAL ACTION PLAN -------------- ¶6. (C) Dadis is reportedly worried about the youths. Camara explained that when CNOSC was organizing an annual national forum for July 16-17 in Dalaba, which included discussions of the transition process, Dadis called Camara to Camp Alpha Yaya. Dadis reportedly accused Camara of organizing a revolt against him and said "do not dishonor me...if I need to leave, I will do so honorably - do not put youths out in the street to force me." Camara assured Dadis that he was not organizing a revolt, merely a regularly scheduled annual meeting. ¶7. (C) Unconvinced, Dadis apparently sent a delegation from the CNDD to observe the discussions. "We were not deterred...we simply discussed routine issues the first day and then when the CNDD left reassured, we talked about the real questions the next day," Camara said. ¶8. (C) Camara added that as a follow on to the July 16-17 national meeting, regional meetings are currently taking place across the country to discuss the same issues. He explained that civil society is organizing a national discussion of key transition challenges in order to develop a CONAKRY 00000473 002 OF 002 concrete action plan for the months ahead. "One of the key issues we are looking at is whether or not the CNDD sincerely intends to cede power," Camara said. ¶9. (C) Dadis' potential candidacy is another major concern. "If Dadis announces his candidacy, we have to be ready to react immediately, which is why we need an action plan," Camara said. When asked what kinds of action civil society might take, Camara said it would resemble the kind of steady escalation of events that led up to the 2007 violence. "We would start with declarations and public demands that the CNDD leave, and eventually proceed to a national strike where everyone stays home and the city is dead," Camara said. -------------- CONCERNS ABOUT THE MILITARY -------------- ¶10. (C) Camara also commented on concerns over the internal stability of the military. He described how he saw a group of 40 "commanders" holding a large meeting in an unspecified neighborhood. According to Camara, the commanders met from 1600 to 2100, which he found highly suspicious. He added that one of his military contacts told him that "between now and the 15th, there will be some kind of major movement in the camp." Camara commented that there is a significant risk of national implosion, which is why it is imperative to bring the transition to an end. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Camara is one of a core group of youth leaders in Conakry. Unlike his associate Dansa Kourouma (REFTEL), Camara was not quite ready to take to the streets, but he seemed to see that option as one tactic among many that would be put into play if the current process fails. For now, he is focused on working within CNOSC, which is part of Les Forces Vives, to build consensus and mobilize actors. CNOSC itself has been the subject of heavy criticism for more than a year now with many contacts arguing that the organization has fractured and is no longer truly representative of civil society. Camara's vision of a national action plan may be unrealistic. However, he gave the impression that if such mechanisms do not work, he would not hesitate to join forces with other youth leaders to explore other methods of pressuring the CNDD out. END COMMENT. BROKENSHIRE