YOUTH LEADER DISCUSSES OPTIONS TO FORCE THE CNDD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000473

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: YOUTH LEADER DISCUSSES OPTIONS TO FORCE THE CNDD
OUT OF POWER

REF: CONAKRY 0464

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY. In sharing his perspective on Guinea's
political situation, a prominent youth leader discussed
waning support for Dadis, talk of a national action plan, and
options for pressuring the CNDD out of power if the
transition process fails. Although he is still focused on
the civilian mechanisms in place, Contact indicated that more
forceful action may be necessary. He likened the current
situation to the lead up to the 2007 violence and said that
if necessary, civilian actors would consider a similar
escalation of events - public declarations and peaceful
marches eventually leading to a nationwide strike where all
citizens stay home and the country shuts down. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) In a meeting with A/DCM on August 11, Alessande
Camara, official youth representative to the National Council
of Civil Society Organizations, discussed his views on the
current political environment. Prominent among the youth
activists during the national labor strike in 2007, Camara
started his own NGO shortly after the movement succeeded in
putting in a consensus government under former Prime Minister
Lansana Kouyate. He has been working closely with Dansa
Kourouma (REFTEL) to establish a national youth network of
informed, civic leaders. Camara is also one of the members
of the Ad Hoc Committee reviewing the transition process.

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WANING YOUTH SUPPORT FOR DADIS
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3. (C) Camara described how much of the country's youth were
initially very supportive of CNDD President Moussa Dadis
Camara and the military-led transition. He admitted that he
too had a lot of confidence in the CNDD in the beginning and
was working closely with Dadis on transition-related issues.
"One morning, Dadis called us to a meeting at 2AM and told us
that he needed our support, that the youths needed to support
him because he was facing too many sanctions from the
international community," Camara said. Camara reportedly
told Dadis that he and others would be willing to support him
as long as he stayed true to the transition, but emphasized
that they would not simply "wear t-shirts and beat drums,"
and that they didn't want vehicles or money.


4. (C) Camara told A/DCM that he wanted Dadis to understand
that he could not expect the kind of blind support from the
youths that former President Conte often enjoyed. However,
it became increasingly evident that the trajectory of the
transition was changing, at which point Camara said he and
other youth leaders began to distance themselves from Dadis
and the CNDD. "There was a lot of enthusiasm in the
beginning, but now the egg has started to crack," he said.


5. (C) According to Camara, support for Dadis is also waning
among youths in the interior. One of his colleagues had
recently returned from what Camara called a "scouting
mission," and reported that many youths are refusing to
participate in pro-Dadis discussions and rallies organized by
local government officials.

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A NATIONAL ACTION PLAN
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6. (C) Dadis is reportedly worried about the youths. Camara
explained that when CNOSC was organizing an annual national
forum for July 16-17 in Dalaba, which included discussions of
the transition process, Dadis called Camara to Camp Alpha
Yaya. Dadis reportedly accused Camara of organizing a revolt
against him and said "do not dishonor me...if I need to
leave, I will do so honorably - do not put youths out in the
street to force me." Camara assured Dadis that he was not
organizing a revolt, merely a regularly scheduled annual
meeting.


7. (C) Unconvinced, Dadis apparently sent a delegation from
the CNDD to observe the discussions. "We were not
deterred...we simply discussed routine issues the first day
and then when the CNDD left reassured, we talked about the
real questions the next day," Camara said.


8. (C) Camara added that as a follow on to the July 16-17
national meeting, regional meetings are currently taking
place across the country to discuss the same issues. He
explained that civil society is organizing a national
discussion of key transition challenges in order to develop a

CONAKRY 00000473 002 OF 002


concrete action plan for the months ahead. "One of the key
issues we are looking at is whether or not the CNDD sincerely
intends to cede power," Camara said.


9. (C) Dadis' potential candidacy is another major concern.
"If Dadis announces his candidacy, we have to be ready to
react immediately, which is why we need an action plan,"
Camara said. When asked what kinds of action civil society
might take, Camara said it would resemble the kind of steady
escalation of events that led up to the 2007 violence. "We
would start with declarations and public demands that the
CNDD leave, and eventually proceed to a national strike where
everyone stays home and the city is dead," Camara said.

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CONCERNS ABOUT THE MILITARY
--------------


10. (C) Camara also commented on concerns over the internal
stability of the military. He described how he saw a group
of 40 "commanders" holding a large meeting in an unspecified
neighborhood. According to Camara, the commanders met from
1600 to 2100, which he found highly suspicious. He added
that one of his military contacts told him that "between now
and the 15th, there will be some kind of major movement in
the camp." Camara commented that there is a significant risk
of national implosion, which is why it is imperative to bring
the transition to an end.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) Camara is one of a core group of youth leaders in
Conakry. Unlike his associate Dansa Kourouma (REFTEL),
Camara was not quite ready to take to the streets, but he
seemed to see that option as one tactic among many that would
be put into play if the current process fails. For now, he
is focused on working within CNOSC, which is part of Les
Forces Vives, to build consensus and mobilize actors. CNOSC
itself has been the subject of heavy criticism for more than
a year now with many contacts arguing that the organization
has fractured and is no longer truly representative of civil
society. Camara's vision of a national action plan may be
unrealistic. However, he gave the impression that if such
mechanisms do not work, he would not hesitate to join forces
with other youth leaders to explore other methods of
pressuring the CNDD out. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE