CIVILIAN LEADERS COMMENT ON GROWING MILITARY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000465

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV ASEC PREL KDEM GV
SUBJECT: CIVILIAN LEADERS COMMENT ON GROWING MILITARY
FACTIONALISM

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. According to key civilian leaders, growing
factionalism within the military is cause for concern.
Younger contacts seem to think that an implosion is imminent
while older contacts were less urgent, but worried. Comments
suggest that there are several factions within the military,
possible ethnic divisions between the Malinkes and the
Forestiers, and that Pivi is in the middle of it all. One
contact also talked about a potential plot to overthrow
Dadis. Growing discord within the military is one of several
potentially destabilizing flashpoints in what remains a
highly volatile political situation. END SUMMARY.


2. (S) During the week of August 3, A/DCM met with several
civilian contacts to explore concerns about growing
factionalism within the Guinean military. Contacts included
opposition political leaders Sidya Toure and Jean-Marie Dore,
and youth leaders Dansa Kourouma and Mouctar Diallo (who also
has his own political party).

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FRUSTRATION AND DISORDER WITHIN THE CAMPS
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3. (S) Youth leader Mouctar Diallo commented that the
military as an institution lacks stability. "There is a lot
of frustration within, and according to my military contact,
they are on the verge of a massacre," Diallo said. He
described how only one faction actually seized power, which
means that only one group is reaping the "profits" of the
coup. According to Diallo, other military personnel are
increasingly dissatisfied with the situation. In addition,
the complete lack of discipline and respect for senior
officers undermines the authority of the institution.


4. (S) According to Diallo, there are at least three "clans"
or factions that have emerged within the military: those
that follow Minister of Defense Sekouba Konate, those that
follow Dadis, and those that follow Claude Pivi, the Minister
of Presidential Security. He claimed that there might be
other groups, but that these are the most powerful.


5. (S) When asked about possible implications of a violent
redistribution of power within the military, Diallo
speculated that if another military leader stepped into the
vacuum, the population would be willing to accept him as long
as he were clearly committed to elections and the transition
agenda. However, Diallo said that if someone like Pivi
stepped in, the people "would immediately revolt." Diallo
added that people may be willing to accept Defense Minister
Konate as a replacement for Dadis.

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ELECTIONS ARE THE ANSWER
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6. (S) Opposition political leader Sidya Toure (UFR) echoed
Diallo's concerns, commenting on the pervasive lack of
discipline throughout the military. "There is a lot of
disorder, lots of aggression," Sidya said. He added that the
CNDD's grip on power is fragile, especially since no one
really even knows who is part of the CNDD anymore. When
asked about the risk of a military on military conflict,
Sidya said he could not rule out the possibility given the
increasing factionalism. He seemed to feel that as the
transition period drags out, the potential for a military
implosion increases, arguing "that is why we need to end this
thing with elections." According to Sidya, many military
personnel agree with him and are afraid that the situation
will continue to deteriorate.


7. (S) Jean-Marie Dore, head of the UPG party and
spokesperson for Les Forces Vives, said "there is a cleavage
at the heart of the army...but it should not get in the way
of elections." Dore also commented on growing factionalism,
primarily tied to ethnicity, but felt that "everybody is out
for themselves." He said the factions are "not high-level"
with insignificant actors leading insignificant groups.
"Ninety percent of the military want this problem resolved,"
Dore said. He blamed the factionalism and the disorder on
the military's newest recruits, especially Claude Pivi's gang
(the Minister of Presidential Security and leader of the May
2008 military mutiny). "Everyone is looking to be chief."

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A COUP PLOT "IN THE WORKS"
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CONAKRY 00000465 002 OF 002



8. (S) Citing a "very reliable source," Dansa Kourouma said
that at least one faction is planning to overthrow Dadis and
that a plan is already in the works. However, Dansa
commented that his contact may have only passed the
information in an attempt to gauge his reaction. When asked
who might be planning to step in to replace Dadis, Dansa said
he could not share the information, but that the person would
not be a Forestier, is currently close to Dadis (a member of
Dadis' recruitment class),and well educated. Dansa added
that Sa Alphonse Toure, who was arrested in May on charges of
conspiracy against the regime, called him in December to warn
him of a potential coup. "I ignored him at the time, but it
quickly came true, so I am careful now not to disregard
information about a possible coup," Dansa said.


9. (S) According to Dansa, the military could "erupt" at
anytime. He said that Pivi is actively recruiting and
training new soldiers and that these new recruits are likely
to be loyal only to Pivi. Dansa identified Pivi as head of
one of the more troublesome "factions."

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ETHNIC TENSIONS
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10. (S) Dansa claimed that there is a growing tension
between the Malinke and Forest ethnic groups within the
military, which he linked to differences between Dadis/Pivi
(Forest) and Defense Minister Konate (Malinke). Using an
example to illustrate, Dansa described how when Konate
traveled to Morocco for medical treatment, he left BATA
(Presidential Guard) Commandant Conde and Issa Traore (the
former head of the dissolved Bureau of Conflict) in charge of
the Ministry of Defense. According to Dansa, Konate was
worried that Pivi might try to interfere so he decided to
leave two of his most trusted associates behind. Both of
these men are Malinke.

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COMMENT
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11. (S) All four contacts independently agreed that growing
factionalism within the military is cause for concern.
However, they seemed to have varying senses of urgency about
the problem. The youth leaders seemed to think that the
situation could explode at any moment while the older, more
seasoned political leaders seemed to think that it is
something to watch, but not necessarily something to keep
people up at night. Sensitive reporting in recent months has
also pointed to significant internal discord within the
military, including talk of a counter-coup to overthrow
Dadis.


12. (S) Instability within the military is one factor within
a complex group of factors contributing to Guinea's continued
political fragility. Other elements include growing popular
dissatisfaction with the current leadership, a lack of
unified leadership in the civilian sector, a national
economic crisis, continued delays to organize elections, and
pervasive poverty. The military is a potential flashpoint
for violence, but so are all of the other factors just
mentioned. The bottom line is that Guinea is in a precarious
position with an uncertain future. At the same time, discord
within the military is particularly troubling because if it
erupts into violence, it could pose a major setback to the
entire transition process. As contacts indicate, it is
something to keep an eye on. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE