(S) YOUTH DISCUSS PLANS FOR "CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE"

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000464

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC GV
SUBJECT: (S) YOUTH DISCUSS PLANS FOR "CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE"
CAMPAIGN

Classified By: A/DCM SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D


1. (S) SUMMARY. A prominent youth leader and activist
claims that Conakry youth are planning a campaign of "civil
disobedience" against the CNDD in the weeks ahead,
characterized by tire burning and the forcible closure of key
traffic circles in Conakry. Keyed into a national network of
politically conscious youths, Contact claims that he can
mobilize 10,000 youths in Conakry alone. Contact stated that
the movement will be "spontaneous," but can be expected
"soon." This latest youth movement may very well fall apart,
as have similar initiatives over the past two years.
However, participation in the January/February 2007 strike
demonstrates just how politically potent the youth can be
when they are able to unite. It remains to be seen whether
or not they can do it this time around. END SUMMARY.

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A CAMPAIGN OF CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE
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2. (S) Dansa Kourouma, youth leader and activist, told A/DCM
on August 7 that he and others are planning to launch a
campaign of "civil disobedience" against the CNDD in the
coming weeks. He argued that the entire transition process
is off track since it is clear that elections will not take
place in 2009. "People are dreaming if they think we are
actually going to vote in December," he said.


3. (S) According to Dansa, the only way to focus attention
on the transition and the urgent need for elections is to
"create a scandal." In order for people to realize that
Guinea's youth are determined to fight for a better future,
Dansa said they need to "shock" the population and the CNDD
into action.


4. (S) When asked to describe what he meant by "civil
disobedience," Dansa said youths plan to burn tires and block
major traffic circles in order to shut down the city. (NOTE.
Such demonstrations were common in Conakry during the last
few months of the Conte regime. END NOTE). He said they
discussed the option of peaceful marches and/or protests, but
agreed that such tactics are no longer effective. "Dadis is
not scared...if we are going to have any impact, we have to
organize an insurrection," Dansa said.

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MOBILIZING GUINEA'S YOUTH
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5. (S) Dansa claims that he is capable of mobilizing 10,000
youths in Conakry. Over the past year, he has been working
to develop a youth leadership network throughout the country,
a project that was partially funded by USAID, through IFES.
This youth network has been successfully used as a mechanism
for informing citizens on key issues, providing civic
education, and encouraging youth participation in the
electoral process and other forms of peaceful change. An
unanticipated side benefit for Dansa is that he is now well
known to a national communication network focused on the
country's most politically conscious and active youths.
Dansa claimed that Mouctar Diallo, the young leader of the
New Democratic Forces (NFD) party, and Allesandre Camara,
youth representative to the National Council for Civil
Society Organizations, have also been involved in the recent
discussions.


6. (S) With respect to timing, Dansa said they are planning
to launch the campaign "soon," but that it will be a
spontaneous movement. "We will make the call one morning and
the streets will be blocked."

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WORKING FOR THE MILITARY, NOT AGAINST
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7. (S) Cognizant of the risk of political violence at the
hands of the military, Dansa said he is in regular contact
with select military officers in an attempt to explain his
group's motivations, and to try and minimize any potential
backlash. Dansa claimed that his contacts are sympathetic to
the youths' agenda and are eager for the transition to end.
"We are not against the military, we are working for their
interests too," Dansa said.

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COMMENT
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CONAKRY 00000464 002 OF 002



8. (S) This is not the first time Dansa has talked about a
youth movement to force political change. He was a key
participant in discussions in September 2008 wherein youth
were talking about launching a peaceful, sustained
demonstration against the Conte regime. That effort fell
apart a few weeks later due to disagreements among youth
leaders and allegations of acceptance of bribes. As the
youth quieted down, elements of the military started talking
about a possible coup. When the coup took place in December,
Dansa and his supporters were some of the first to take to
the streets in celebration and support of the CNDD. Just a
few weeks later, he met with A/DCM and described his profound
disappointment with the military led transition, a
disappointment that has turned into frustration as the
transition drags on.


9. (S) This most recent youth movement may very well fall
apart at the seams. Potentially, youth represent perhaps the
most potent political voice in Guinea - if they can just hold
themselves together long enough to make their voice heard.
They were able to do so in January/February 2007 and people
like Dansa Kourouma, Mouctar Diallo, and Allesandre Camara
were at the center of the youth leadership at the time. It
is unclear whether this particular movement is likely to gain
momentum or not.


10. (S) Although Dansa indicates that the youths plan to
launch their campaign "soon," heavy rains and the start of
Ramadan (expected August 21) may encourage them to postpone
until mid-September. Indications of progress towards the
transition agenda in the weeks ahead may also influence youth
discussions. Lack of progress towards elections, the
continued impunity of the military, and suggestions of CNDD
members as political candidates are all issues that could
raise tempers. END COMMENT.
BROKENSHIRE